Seven veterans looking to rebound from injuries could be keys to your 2006 Fantasy Season.
Gunkdog’s Veterans to Observe this Off-Season
With the Bench Coach on a hiatus, rotochamps Moderator Don Hansen (gunkdog) takes a seat in the dugout to share what is on his mind this time of year.
As the World Series comes to end, many fantasy managers start gearing up for 2006. Managers scour the minor leagues looking for the next Miguel Cabrera or Felix Hernandez.
As I was going through my lists, I noticed a number of former All-Stars hitters who had a significant injury in 2005. And while hot rookies get all the hype going into the season, sometimes forgotten veterans coming off of injury prove to be the best pickups. Guys like Troy Glaus, Ken Griffey Jr., and Andy Pettitte had superb seasons in 2005 after disappointing and injured 2004 seasons.
Here’s a list of veteran 2005 disappointments to not forget for 2006.
1st Base – Jim Thome, Philadelphia Phillies: Frayed Tendon in Elbow
Phillies fans are calling for the trade of Jim Thome due to a disappointing and injury-riddled 2005 season. Not to mention, the arrival of super prospect Ryan Howard puts a crowd at 1B. New Phillies GM Pat Gillick will have to eat a large portion of Thome’s paycheck to get rid of him.
I doubt Thome will be moved because he has a huge contract and his value is at a low coming off major surgery to his elbow. If he was traded, the only major team that has an opening at 1B and money is the Red Sox (Ortiz 3, Ramirez 4, Thome 5).
Thome is a guy to follow this off-season and to possibly pick up as your corner infielder. If he starts swinging a bat before spring training, and if he is able to play that first spring training game, this guy will have a good 2006. He should be swinging pain free with a vendetta against those who doubted him.
2nd Base – Jose Vidro, Washington Nationals: Right Knee Surgery
This is Vidro’s second right knee surgery in the past twelve months. Vidro is a strong player at a weak position. His half a 2005 season stats are as good or better to most of the full-time second basemen.
This year was a down year offensively for the Nationals for two reasons: numerous hitters under-performed or were hurt and RFK’s new nickname is Petco East. Even though it may not be a power ballpark, the Nationals could score some runs next season. The Nationals have young talent who are developing nice on base percentages like Nick Johnson, Ryan Church, and Jose Guillen.
Let’s hope that this second surgery fixes the knee for good, and Vidro gets on the field. With a new wave of 2B coming into the league (Cano, Utley, Weeks, Pedroia), Vidro could probably be had at a reduced rate in 2006 which could pay off for your team. He has been a proven power producer at a weak fantasy position which at best gives you average and steals. Even if he only plays three-quarters of 2006, his stats as a backup middle infielder would be better than Miles, Grudzielanek, Hudson, and most shortstops.
Shortstop – Nomar Garciaparra, FA: Torn Groin
Instead of leading the Cubs to the post-season, NomAH missed three-fifths of the season with a completely torn groin. OUCH, poor Mia!!! Heading into 2005 (no pun intended), I am sure numerous people picked NomAH to be their comeback player of the year. With another major injury in his past, a lot of people are wondering if he is even worth it in 2006.
As an annoying TV commentator says, “Not so fast my friend!” This guy still has the smooth swing, and he will provide you good offensive statistics at shortstop no matter where he ends up. More importantly, he recovered during the season. Instead of doing rehabilitation all off-season, NomAH is going to be working on conditioning, strength, and his swing.
Keep an eye on where NoMAH ends up. The more protection he has, the better numbers he will produce. However, just like second base, there are a lot of young shortstops coming into their own like Reyes, Crosby, Barmes, Peralta, and Greene who will have some inflated salaries due to rookie/young player hype. So don’t forget about NomAH this off-season because his production at a middle infield position could be pivotal to you winning your championship.
3rd Base – Scott Rolen, St. Louis Cardinals: Torn Labrum in Right Shoulder
Doesn’t Cardinal Nation wish Rolen was available in the playoffs this season?!? While Scott Seabol, Abraham Nunez, Hector Luna, and John Mabry filled in adequately for Rolen in the field, there is no replacing him offensively. Rolen offers very solid protection for Pujols and Edmonds which was missed this off-season.
At the age of 30, Scott Rolen is going into his 11th season in the major leagues. A torn labrum in his throwing shoulder is a serious injury for a guy who needs to throw hard a lot and who swings for power. Remember, Troy Glaus had surgery on his right throwing shoulder not too long ago, and he came back from it to become a serious deep threat for the Diamondbacks. Rolen is a very competitive, hard working, professional ball player who will come back from this injury.
Looking at Rolen for your team in 2006 is interesting. If you do not have a 3B for next season, you really should avoid looking at Rolen and invest your money in a 3B not coming off injury (Ramirez or Chavez). This will give you better odds at getting a return for your investment.
However, If you have a young, strong keeper at 3B like Blalock or Wright, adding Rolen as your corner infielder should be strongly considered. Rolen will definitely come as a discount, so it will be nice to pick him up as a compliment corner. You won’t have the pressure to play Rolen as your 3B in the beginning of the season when he is trying to work himself back into MLB game shape.
Outfield – Barry Bonds, San Fransisco Giants: THE Knee
As an Arizona State alumnus, this is the only former Sun Devil I have a hard time talking about (I would much rather discuss the 1994 point shaving scum on our basketball team than Bonds). However, he is a fantasy stud coming off a significant injury to THE knee. This was probably the most talked about knee since Nancy Kerrigan.
The Giants did what they had to do to get Bonds back in the lineup for 2006. They sat him for the entire season, and they played him just enough to let potential free agents-to-be know that Bonds will be ready for 2006. Check out his homeruns per registered at bat (2003: 0.115, 2004: 0.120, 2005: 0.119). As long as Bonds rests and relaxes THE knee this off-season, there is no doubt that he returns to launching baseballs into McCovey Cove.
It should be noted that the Giants actually went out and acquired a fast center fielder in Randy Winn. Defensively, this takes less pressure off of Bonds to cover left center field which should increase the probability of Bonds staying in the lineup. Offensively, this gives another guy who could get on base for Bonds to drive-in.
There are two theories for your team when it comes to Bonds:
- You dislike him so much that you take your money and invest it elsewhere. You refuse to bid on him, to trade for him, or to even click on his bio link on websites.
- You blow your budget to acquire Bonds because you need all that power to win. Then when looking at your weak supporting cast of hitters, you start sending BALCO brochures and samples to their clubhouse addresses.
The choice is yours. However, if you get him, all I have to say is “May the “force” be with you!!”
Outfield #2 – J.D. Drew, LA Dodgers: Right Wrist and Knee Surgery
Surprisingly JD Drew had a decent half a season of stats in the known pitchers park of Dodger Stadium. He tied for the second most homers on the Dodgers this season in a half a season of at-bats. Let’s face it; the only other bat in the lineup that scared people was Jeff Kent. (Notice I said “bat to scare people”, not “scary people” because Choi and Seanz fit that label).
Once JD Drew was hurt for the season, the Dodgers playoff hopes went out the door. Whoever is tabbed as the new GM, he has a lot of work to do. He needs some people to get healthy and strong again (Drew, Izturis, and Bradley), and the Dodgers need some power to support Drew.
This right wrist is a problem though for Drew. Since he is left handed, his right wrist is at the bottom of the bat which is the key to his swing. He needs to take extra time in his rehab because he will need all that wrist strength when the season begins. Of the people on this list, this is injury is one that could definitely affect his batting numbers next season. I expect him to take it very slowly in spring training. If you need a power outfielder to provide immediate help to your team, I would not invest in Drew. However, if I had a set outfield, and I could stash Drew away on the bench until the 2nd half of the season, he may be a good investment.
Catcher – Mike Piazza, FA: Broken Hand
“He’s catcher eligible. Yeah, he’s catcher eligible.” Even at the age of 37, that is all you have to say about Mike Piazza and the 2006 season no matter where he ends up. Mike Piazza tied for fourth in homeruns at the catcher spot behind Varitek (22), Barajas (21), and Martinez (20).
So many times we forget that catchers have to spend their time working with their own pitchers on game plans for getting opposing batters out, that their own personal hitting skills diminish. Piazza took a lot of bad press for his defensive skills and pitch calling. Instead of taking batting practice, Piazza would work on smothering bouncing balls and throwing a base stealer out at second. It is clear that the wear and tear of playing catcher has caught up with him. His offensive skills have diminished and he is on injury reports more frequently.
Piazza is one of those players whose value greatly differs between each roto league. The value of Piazza depends on the size and structure of your league (i.e. How many teams? How many catchers start?). In a typical 12 team, 2 C starter league, Piazza does have some value. In a 10 team, 1 catcher starter league, Piazza does not have that much value (I can quickly name 8-10 catchers I would rather have than Mike).
If Mike stays in the NL, you can expect his numbers to probably stay consistent with what he has done the past two seasons (.260 average, 20 homers, 60-70 RBIs). If he ends up as a DH and part time catcher somewhere in the AL, you could expect all of his numbers to go up across the board.
this article represents the opinions of Don Hansen and does not neccesarily reflect the opinions of rotochamps.com.