Minor League Draft Review: Rd 1
Date: Thursday, February 02 @ 16:51:38 PST Topic: Prospecting
Our Minor League Draft Review kicks off with detailed notes on Round 1.
INTRO - RD1 - RD2 - RD3 - RD4 - RD5 - RD6 - RD7 - RD8 - RD9 - RD10 - RD 11 - RD12 - RD13 - RD14 - RD15 - RD16 - RD17 - RD18 - RD19 - RD20 - RD21 - RD22 - RD23 - RD24 - RD25
|
|
1 |
Jeremy Hermida, OF (Marlins) |
CHICO'S BAIL BONDS |
| LEVEL |
AB |
R |
H |
2B |
3B |
HR |
RBI |
BB |
SO |
SB |
CS |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
| Carolina (AA) |
386 |
77 |
113 |
29 |
2 |
18 |
63 |
111 |
89 |
23 |
2 |
.293 |
.457 |
.518 |
| Florida (MLB) |
41 |
9 |
12 |
2 |
0 |
4 |
11 |
6 |
12 |
2 |
0 |
.293 |
.383 |
.634 |
Justin's Take: Hermida over Young isn't the huge shocker that it appears at first. In a league that values "Troubles" and OBP, he should be able to compete on a level similar to Young and with a projected starting spot in the Marlin's '06 outfield, he provides immediate Return On Investment (ROI).
Until 2005, the question around Hermida was when his project power would show up. Now it's just a question if he can continue to hit for power at the Major League level. |
Stewart's Take: Picking Hermida over Delmon seems to be the fashionable trend of this offseason, although the league's bonus considerations were likely a factor in this case.
The fact that Hermida has a job pretty much locked up for 2006 gives him a lot of added value, and his batting eye is practically abnormal, which is always comforting in a hitting prospect. The great discipline combined with good power and some speed should make him a candidate for immediate fantasy consideration even in shallower leagues. | |
|
2 |
Delmon Young , OF (Devil Rays) |
PHILLY FANATICS |
| LEVEL |
AB |
R |
H |
2B |
3B |
HR |
RBI |
BB |
SO |
SB |
CS |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
| Montgomery (AA) |
330 |
59 |
111 |
13 |
4 |
20 |
71 |
25 |
66 |
25 |
8 |
.336 |
.386 |
.582 |
| Durham (AAA) |
228 |
33 |
65 |
13 |
3 |
6 |
28 |
4 |
33 |
7 |
4 |
.285 |
.303 |
.447 |
Justin's Take: Young is the #1 prospect on many experts' lists, and deservedly so. With some of the best raw power in the minors and good speed, he projects as a possible 30-30 player at the MLB level.
Young's only real area for improvement is his plate patience, which is partially due to his excellent contact abilities. If he can learn to take a walk more often, his value in this league skyrockets. At #2, this is a no-brainer pick.
Note: Young was later traded for Carlos Quentin & Jon Lester. |
Stewart's Take: There isn't a lot to say about Delmon that hasn't been said already.
Some people are sweating his Triple-A numbers but Young was only 19 years old. It'll work out, he just needs time to develop.
I have a hard time imagining Young stealing 30 bases in the majors. Big slugger-types have better things to do than run after bulking up. Of course, the same could've been said about Vlad Guerrero and he stole 40 bases before his knee problems. Albert Pujols even stole 16 bases last year, so it's not unprecendented. | |
|
3 |
Francisco Liriano, P (Twins) |
LONG ISLAND DUCKS |
| LEVEL |
G |
GS |
W |
L |
SV |
ERA |
IP |
H |
R |
ER |
HR |
BB |
SO |
WHIP |
| New Britain (AA) |
13 |
13 |
3 |
5 |
0 |
3.63 |
76.7 |
70 |
|
31 |
6 |
26 |
92 |
1.25 |
| Rochester (AAA) |
14 |
14 |
9 |
2 |
0 |
1.78 |
91 |
56 |
25 |
18 |
4 |
24 |
112 |
0.88 |
| Minnesota (MLB) |
6 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
5.70 |
23.7 |
19 |
15 |
15 |
4 |
7 |
33 |
1.10 |
Justin's Take: Liriano and Cain are generally considered the top 2 MLB ready starting pitchers in the minors. Liriano dominated the International League for half of 2005. His four pitch offering includes a mid-90's fastball, two different changeups, and a wicked slider that's his strikeout pitch.
The question with Liriano, as with most young power pitchers, is his health. He missed nearly two years with shoulder issues while in the Giants system, though he has since altered his delivery. |
Stewart's Take: Cain's hold on a rotation slot is tighter than Liriano's, at the moment; it's unclear exactly what the Twins' plans are. They could still go with a Santana, Radke, Silva, Lohse, Baker rotation and use Liriano in the pen or at AAA to start the year. | |
|
4 |
Billy Butler, OF (Royals) |
XI'AN INCIDENT |
| LEVEL |
AB |
R |
H |
2B |
3B |
HR |
RBI |
BB |
SO |
SB |
CS |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
| High Desert (A+) |
379 |
70 |
132 |
30 |
2 |
25 |
91 |
42 |
80 |
0 |
0 |
.348 |
.419 |
.636 |
| Wichita (AA) |
112 |
14 |
35 |
9 |
0 |
5 |
19 |
7 |
18 |
0 |
0 |
.313 |
.353 |
.527 |
Justin's Take: Butler hit well in both his stops this year, despite being the one of the youngest in both the California and Texas Leagues. He hit for average and power, while displaying a willingness to take a walk.
His position is still a question. According to nearly every scouting report, he was a terrible defensive third basemen and didn't adapt well to the OF. It appears that he'll end up at 1B or DH. |
Stewart's Take: Butler is my guy. Most people don't have him this high. I was about to take Wood and then made a snap decision to take Butler at the last second.
He hit well in a AA trial last year as a 19-year old. Not many people do that. Be aware of him. Prospect watchers are downgrading him for his lack of a defensive position, which obviously matters a lot less in fantasy. You'll still take David Ortiz, right? I think he has best shot of anyone in the minors to be one of those big, scary hitters, like a Manny. What I really should have done here was trade down to around the 10 pick, where I could probably still have gotten him, but that would have been too much work. | |
|
5 |
Brandon Wood, SS (Angels) |
NAPTOWN REVIVAL |
| LEVEL |
AB |
R |
H |
2B |
3B |
HR |
RBI |
BB |
SO |
SB |
CS |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
| Rancho Cuca. (A+) |
536 |
109 |
172 |
51 |
4 |
43 |
115 |
48 |
128 |
7 |
3 |
.321 |
.383 |
.672 |
| Salt Lake (AAA) |
19 |
1 |
6 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
6 |
0 |
0 |
.316 |
.316 |
.526 |
Justin's Take: Brandon Wood had one the most prolific hitting seasons in recent minor league history, leading the minors in doubles and home runs on the way to 101 extra-base hits. He's also a very good defensive shortstops, which may allow him to stay there despite a frame more suited to thirdbase.
With only 19 at-bats above High-A ball, he still needs more experience. But he should be ready in the very near future to supplant Orlando Cabrera as the Angels shortstop. |
Stewart's Take: I may well regret not taking Wood. I'm just trying to imagine what kind of hitter he's going to be in the big leagues, and I can't quite buy that he's going to be a 40-homer guy. That's A-Rod, and I don't think Wood is A-Rod. You knew A-Rod was A-Rod when he was 17. Wood was a lanky 19-year-old who drank some protein shakes in the offseason and destroyed high-A. That's fine. I love the guy. I can see him hitting 30 from shortstop. He also struck out once per game.
I just can't shake the feeling that if he'd have gotten a mid-season promotion to Double-A that his numbers would've leveled off like Andy LaRoche did and we wouldn't be talking about him as a top 5 guy right now. Instead he stayed in the in the Cal League to be the "Guy-With-100-Extra-Base-Hits". That said, I don't think he's going to be a bust and it was hard to pass on him. | |
|
6 |
Prince Fielder, 1B (Brewers) |
PLANO CANNONS |
| LEVEL |
AB |
R |
H |
2B |
3B |
HR |
RBI |
BB |
SO |
SB |
CS |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
| Nashville (AAA) |
378 |
68 |
110 |
21 |
0 |
28 |
86 |
54 |
93 |
8 |
5 |
.291 |
.388 |
.569 |
| Milwaukee (MLB) |
59 |
2 |
17 |
4 |
0 |
2 |
10 |
2 |
17 |
0 |
0 |
.288 |
.306 |
.458 |
Justin's Take: Fielder is one of the premier power prospects in the minor leagues, despite the Brewers pushing him through the minors. While no one doubts his ability to hit for power, his development hasn't quite kept up with his promotions.
He could use another season at Triple-A to let his pitch recognition catch up a bit, however the trade of Lyle Overbay signals the beginning of the Prince Fielder era in Milwaukee. |
Stewart's Take: Another prospect with a Major League starting job all lined up. I expect him to hit for power, but he's streaky and rookies tend to have bad batting averages. | |
|
7 |
Matt Cain , P (Giants) |
BALTIMORE BODYBAGS |
| LEVEL |
G |
GS |
W |
L |
SV |
ERA |
IP |
H |
R |
ER |
HR |
BB |
SO |
WHIP |
| Fresno (AAA) |
26 |
26 |
10 |
5 |
0 |
4.38 |
145.7 |
118 |
77 |
71 |
22 |
73 |
176 |
1.31 |
| San Fran (MLB) |
7 |
7 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
2.33 |
46.3 |
24 |
12 |
12 |
4 |
19 |
30 |
0.93 |
Justin's Take: Though he's been overshadowed by Felix Hernandez in every league he's pitched in, Cain's stuff is nearly as good. He throws in the mid-90's with a good curveball and developing changeup.
Cain is still developing command of his pitches, which lead to some growing pains in the Triple-A. His MLB debut wasn't as spectacular as it appears on the surface and some growing pains are expected in 2005, but his future is as bright as any pitching prospect. |
Stewart's Take: Cain is great but keep an eye on his walk rate. Don't draft him with the expectation that he'll sustain his major league numbers from 2005 over a full season. His major-league numbers were better than his AAA numbers across the board. He was walking a batter every two innings in the minors. That's bad.
Plan for a regression to sanity. I expect Liriano to be the better pitcher in 2006 if he lands a rotation spot in Minnesota. | |
|
8 |
Stephen Drew, SS (D-Backs) |
AUSTRALIA WINOS |
| LEVEL |
AB |
R |
H |
2B |
3B |
HR |
RBI |
BB |
SO |
SB |
CS |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
| Lancaster (A+) |
149 |
33 |
58 |
16 |
3 |
10 |
39 |
26 |
25 |
1 |
1 |
.389 |
.486 |
.738 |
| Tennessee (AA) |
101 |
11 |
22 |
5 |
0 |
4 |
13 |
12 |
24 |
2 |
3 |
.218 |
.301 |
.386 |
Justin's Take: Drew opened up nicely at High-A Lancaster, sporting good pitch recognition and outstanding power in a strong hitter's league.
However, while his debut in the Cal League was strong, he was considered old for that level and showed next to nothing following his promotion to Double-A Tennessee.
Scouting reports indicate that his arm may not be strong enough for him to stay SS long-term, which could hurt his value (depending what position he ends up at). |
Stewart's Take: Rumors of him starting the season in Arizona are probably exaggerated.
All accounts have him a strong hitter, with power and that Drew family batting eye. You just worry what else he may or may not have inherited from the Drew family. | |
|
9 |
Ian Stewart, 3B (Rockies) |
LATROBE 33's |
| LEVEL |
AB |
R |
H |
2B |
3B |
HR |
RBI |
BB |
SO |
SB |
CS |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
|
Modesto (A+) |
435 |
83 |
119 |
32 |
7 |
17 |
86 |
52 |
113 |
2 |
2 |
.274 |
.353 |
.497 |
Justin's Take: Stewart is still a year or two away from making a real contribution in Colorado and really is the furthest away of anyone in the first round.
Stewart does look like he'll be a legit power hitting threat, hitting for a lot of homers and "troubles". However, it remains to be seen if he'll help out in OBP at all. It's unlikely he'll provide any help in steals. |
Stewart's Take: Big bat + Coors Field = crazy delicious.
Stewart had a bit of an off year statistically, most likely due to a lingering hamstring injury. Most prospect sources have him pegged as a .270-.280 hitter with 30-35 HR power. That's without the altitude. Just hope the Rockies can cobble some kind of lineup together by the time he shows up. | |
|
10 |
Andy Marte, 3B (Red Sox) |
EDMONTON EGOMANIACS |
| LEVEL |
AB |
R |
H |
2B |
3B |
HR |
RBI |
BB |
SO |
SB |
CS |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
| Richmond (AAA) |
389 |
51 |
107 |
26 |
2 |
20 |
74 |
64 |
83 |
0 |
3 |
.275 |
.372 |
.506 |
| Atlanta (MLB) |
57 |
3 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
4 |
7 |
13 |
0 |
1 |
.140 |
.227 |
.211 |
Justin's Take: For a second it looked like Marte was going to get dealt to the Indians and pay some immediate dividends in one of the league's most talented, young offenses. Instead, I expect that staying in Boston will keep him in Triple-A for another season, unless we see some injuries.
Once he gets the call, he should establish himself as a presence in the middle of the order, hitting for power and a solid OBP. |
Stewart's Take: Somewhat difficult to distinguish from Stewart as a prospect. Same position, same general type of hitter. Stewart probably gets long-term fantasy edge due to Coors Field.
Fenway's a nice park for hitters though and Marte's closer to the majors. His critics often point to the recent track record of Braves prospects that get traded, but I don't buy it. Those were all pitchers. | |
|
11 |
Jason Kubel, OF (Twins) |
BOSTON RODENTS |
| LEVEL |
AB |
R |
H |
2B |
3B |
HR |
RBI |
BB |
SO |
SB |
CS |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
| 2005 |
DNP - INJURED |
Justin's Take: This was something of a surprise pick, given the significance of his knee injury and year away from the game.
Jacque Jones departure gives him the opportunity to win a job in Spring Training. I would expect a .340 OBP with around 15 HR and roughly 30 troubles. |
Stewart's Take: Missed all of 2005 after suffering one of those awful three-ligament knee catastrophes in the '04 AFL.
If he proves to be healthy, he's worthy of a first round pick, but you would usually expect him to drop more than this after that kind of layoff. | |
|
12 |
Lastings Milledge, OF (Mets) |
FLOWER MOUND RATTLERS |
| LEVEL |
AB |
R |
H |
2B |
3B |
HR |
RBI |
BB |
SO |
SB |
CS |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
| St. Lucie (A+) |
232 |
48 |
70 |
15 |
0 |
4 |
22 |
19 |
41 |
18 |
13 |
.302 |
.385 |
.418 |
| Binghamton (AA) |
193 |
33 |
65 |
17 |
0 |
4 |
24 |
14 |
47 |
11 |
5 |
.337 |
.392 |
.487 |
Justin's Take: The hype around Milledge is partially due to the media market in which his organization exists.
Milledge has speed, doubles power, and an ability to hit for average. His Double-A numbers are a small sample to base things off of, but in that short time he did display some improved power over his High-A numbers, but his SLG% did take a dip from 2004.
He still has to learn how to steal bases successfully on a consistent basis. A 61% success rate is unacceptable at any level. |
Stewart's Take: This kid looks good. Good speed, goot bat, great name. The total package.
The initial instinct is to compare him to Beltran - and hey, when Beltran was Milledge's age, he was putting up a .310 OBP in A-ball. But then he went nuts in AA the next year (.352/.427/.687). Maybe he just didn't like A-ball. I see Milledge as a guy who probably won't hit 30 every year, or even any year (depending on how much strength he adds) but should provide a square fantasy meal in all 5 standard categories. It's too bad the Mets already have the real Beltran, otherwise Milledge would make a real nice centerfielder in a year or so. Seems like a waste to put him in right. | |
|
13 |
Daric Barton, 1B (A's) |
DANKSTOWN DANKSTAS |
| LEVEL |
AB |
R |
H |
2B |
3B |
HR |
RBI |
BB |
SO |
SB |
CS |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
| Stockton (A+) |
292 |
60 |
93 |
16 |
2 |
8 |
52 |
62 |
49 |
0 |
1 |
.318 |
.438 |
.469 |
| Midland (AA) |
212 |
38 |
67 |
20 |
1 |
5 |
37 |
35 |
30 |
1 |
1 |
.316 |
.410 |
.491 |
Justin's Take: Barton has established himself as one of the best hitting prospects in the minors and this is the exact type of league that his skills are best put to use in.
He hits for average, has a great eye at the plate, and has shown an ability to hit for gap power. The main knock is that he's sometimes too patient, with the thinking that being more aggressive will lead to more power. Even without that I think he'll end up similar to an Edgar Martinez type hitter, with occassional power bursts, but constantly high averages and OBP's. |
Stewart's Take: Ah, the new pet prospect of the Moneyball crowd. I like him.
I see similarities to Todd Helton without the Coors Field effect - I came up with that myself and then saw somebody else on the internet say exactly the same thing so it must be true.
People who expect him to magically grow into 30+ homer power might be getting a little bit overexcited - he's just not that tall. But it's hard to imagine him not becoming a productive hitter. | |
|
14 |
Carlos Quentin, OF (D-Backs) |
MAINE MARINERS |
| LEVEL |
AB |
R |
H |
2B |
3B |
HR |
RBI |
BB |
SO |
SB |
CS |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
| Tucson (AAA) |
452 |
98 |
136 |
28 |
4 |
21 |
89 |
72 |
71 |
9 |
1 |
.301 |
.422 |
.520 |
Justin's Take: Quentin is one of my favorite minor league prospects and really has nothing left to prove in the minors. Since he projects as a corner outfielder, there's no current opening in Arizona.
His OBP is boosted by a huge amount of HBP and it's not certain if his on base skills will translate to the Majors. If he does continue take the beanballs, he could be a .380 to .420 OBP guy who hits consistently for 25+ homers. |
Stewart's Take: I see Quentin as sort of a money-in-the-bank prospect for the risk-averse. Quentin should be a solid, sturdy, reliable run producer rather than some kind of star.
A corner outfielder who's Triple-A tested and hits for power. He has a good batting eye plus lots of HBP equals good OBP.
He's just about the least likely guy in all of the minors to completely wash out and be useless. Now that I've said it, he's doomed, just to make me look bad. | |
|
15 |
Ryan Zimmerman, 3B (Nationals) |
DUBLIN DRUNKS |
| LEVEL |
AB |
R |
H |
2B |
3B |
HR |
RBI |
BB |
SO |
SB |
CS |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
| Savannah (A) |
17 |
5 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
6 |
0 |
3 |
0 |
1 |
.471 |
.471 |
1.060 |
| Harrisburg (AA) |
233 |
40 |
76 |
20 |
0 |
9 |
32 |
15 |
34 |
1 |
5 |
.326 |
.371 |
.528 |
| Washington (MLB) |
58 |
6 |
23 |
10 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
3 |
12 |
0 |
0 |
.397 |
.419 |
.569 |
Justin's Take: Zimmerman could provide immediate return on value with high OBP skills, 30-40 extra-base hits, and smattering of RBI's.
Having a starting job locked down for 2006 likely drove this pick. Everyone has a different strategy and filling out a major league roster with cheap talent is definitely one viable solution in a cap-driven league. |
Stewart's Take: I was all hating on Zimmerman for a while, but I've warmed up to him a little bit now.
Estimates of his power potential vary, with some people projecting him as a 15-20 HR guy and others at 25-30 HR annually. He should be a good contact and doubles hitter.
Just keep in mind that a lot of his real-world prospect hype is because of his defense, which probably can't help you in your fantasy league. | |
|
16 |
Yusmeiro Petit , P (Marlins) |
TAMPA BAD BOYS |
| LEVEL |
G |
GS |
W |
L |
SV |
ERA |
IP |
H |
R |
ER |
HR |
BB |
SO |
WHIP |
| Binghamton (AA) |
21 |
21 |
9 |
3 |
0 |
2.90 |
117.7 |
90 |
|
38 |
15 |
18 |
130 |
0.92 |
| Norfolk (AAA) |
3 |
3 |
0 |
3 |
0 |
9.18 |
14.7 |
24 |
|
15 |
5 |
6 |
14 |
2.04 |
Justin's Take: Petit is one of the more overrated pitching prospects in the game, likely due to being in the New York Mets farm system.
He's shown great ability at the lower minor league levels, but his stuff doesn't likely translate well to the majors and the more advanced hitters he'll face there.
Pitchers with his makeup often peak later and have a finer margin of error than power pitchers. I see him as a #4 type starter who might peak as a #2 or #3 eventually. |
Stewart's Take: Petit mastered control and pitch selection at an early age and has a deceptive delivery but just doesn't throw as hard as his strikeout numbers indicate.
A lot of scouts don't think he can make it at the highest level, but his minor league numbers are impeccable. I really have no idea what's going to happen to him, but he should be in the majors soon so we can all find out together.
It's the "deception" everyone keeps talking about that gives me more hope for him than I might have for some A-ball soft-tosser with Greg Maddux command but girl-next-door stuff. | |
INTRO - RD1 - RD2 - RD3 - RD4 - RD5 - RD6 - RD7 - RD8 - RD9 - RD10 - RD 11 - RD12 - RD13 - RD14 - RD15 - RD16 - RD17 - RD18 - RD19 - RD20 - RD21 - RD22 - RD23 - RD24 - RD25 |
|
|