Guest writer Shawn Childs shares his Mixed Auction Wisdom.
The NFBC offers 15 mixed auctions leagues. Over the last couple of years they have grown in popularity. Many feel there are enough free agents to recover from a few auction mistakes. In an AL or NL auction league, it is very difficult to rebound from key injuries. The first year they were offered there wasn’t a lot of good information about prices. This year is the fourth year they are being offered. There is some history on how teams win and some trends on player prices.
I doubt you will find any 15 team mixed auction results before you prepare for this year’s events. I think the best way to get ready is use a completed 15 team auction from last year. When you look at last year’s results, you can see what top players went for. This year’s players won’t go for the same price, but you can see about what they went for. As I mentioned earlier, you should be able to get some information from the LABR auctions in March. These auctions offer good information because the players are playing out the league. Sometimes you will see an earlier auction and the prices don’t look right because owners will try some strategy for auction just for fun and won’t play out the league.
Even thought the NFBC is a non trading league, you can use the prices from LABR to get a feel for what players are going for. The prices from a mixed auction league are about 80 % of the prices from an AL and NL auction league. The elite players will go full price. Some may go for a premium because the owner feels he can make up the money later on. If you see a player go for $25 in an AL auction, he should go for around $20 in a mixed auction. If you see a lot of players going for full price, you know there will be more buying opportunities later on. You can’t use this information for lower tier players. The timing of a less talented player will dictate their market value. I would use it more for core players to see about what they went for. Maybe, you could use it for anyone who when for more than $12.
I think closers haven’t taken the biggest hit in mixed auction league. In 2005, you saw more closer go for more than $20. I think owners have adjusted their plans and are willing to bid less on a closer. Also in 2005, the innings requirement was lower so you saw more players trying to play angles. This year the minimum innings requirement is 700 innings. It is just higher enough to keep everyone honest. If you are going to see a reliever only strategy, most likely it would be in an auction league. If a couple of owners decide to punt saves, you might be able to get saves at a discount.
The team that won the NFBC Ultimate auction invested in Victor Martinez, Hanley Ramirez, Miguel Tejada, David Ortiz, Jake Peavy and C.C. Sabathia. In 2005, he used a similar strategy to win. I believe he had Reyes, Tejada, Mauer, and Santana. I can’t remember his other key investments, but I’m sure he paid for one stud power hitter. Another common player he had was Chipper Jones. I’m sure many players have shied away from him because of his injury risk. I have as well. When I look back at it, it is not really a bad play. He is a top player when healthy. He comes at a discounted price. I believe he went for $10. In a mixed draft he was probably taken in the 6th rounds. When I look forward to this year, I could see Baldelli getting drafted fairly early if healthy in straight drafts. He might offer a lot more opportunity in a mixed auction because he will come at a huge discount. You might be more willing to take a shot on an injury prone player because he might only cost a few dollars.
In a lot of way a mixed auction is similar to an AL or NL auction. You need to pay for your core players. As the auction goes on, there are so many more buying opportunities. You can use a similar game plan as I described in the game planning article. With a mixed auction, you have more interchangeable parts.
Shawn Childs is an elite fantasy baseball player specializing in National Fantasy Baseball Championship contests.
• 2 time NFBC Main Event League Champion
• NFBC AL Auction Champion
• NFBC NL Auction Champion
• NFBC Mid-Season Champion
• 2006 NFBC Ultimate League Runner-up
• NFBC Main Event – 3rd overall in 2004
• NFBC Main Event – 5th overall in 2005