THIS ARTICLE WAS SUBMITTED BY ADICHIARA AS PART OF THE MEMBER SUBMISSION CONTEST IN 2004.
Here are my top under-valued players at each position for 2005. All my analysis is referring to 5x5 leagues. This is any early analysis so if you use this article as a tool, please be sure to check player news and updates for any major changes.
Catcher: Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins
2004 Stats: 36 GP / 107 AB / 18 R / 6 HR / 17 RBI / 1 SB / .308 AVG
General Info: This former #1 Draft Pick was named the best MLB prospect by almost every prospect outlet before last season. He is expected to put up vintage Mike Piazza numbers in his prime. He was supposed to take over the catcher’s role full time this season but knee injuries dismantled that plan. However, in his very brief stint he did hit for a high average, an uncommon element for rookies. He needs to prove his knee troubles are a thing of the past. Even with that concern, this 2003 minor league player of the year is good enough to make a very big fantasy impact in his first season.
Breakdown: Top 10 Catcher.
My Projection: 65 R / 20 HR / 80 RBI / .300 AVG
First Base: Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins
2004 Stats: 74 GP / 280 AB / 39 R / 19 HR / 58 RBI / 0 SB / .271 AVG
General Info: Justin Morneau made his pro debut in 2003 at the age of 22. He hit 4 homeruns in 108 at-bats giving us a glimpse of his growing power. He started the 2004 season in AAA and hit 28 long balls with 68 RBI in 288 at bats. He was called up to the big club and was one of the baseball’s hottest hitters over the second half hitting 19 home runs and 58 RBI in only 280 at bats. Over a full season that is right near 40 home runs and 110 RBI, numbers only 6 players achieved. His combined home run totals between AAA and the majors last year were 47. He hit a mediocre .271 with the Twins but he has a lot of room for improvement. Even if his average doesn’t improve he will still be one of the games elite sluggers. He will start 2005 as either the Twins first basemen or DH. The scary part of it all is that he’s only 23.
Breakdown: Top 10 first baseman. I expect an eerily similar season to how Mark Teixiera broke out this season into an elite hitter after his first good season the previous year.
My Projection: 90 R / 35 HR / 105 RBI / 0 SB / .275 AVG
Second Base: Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies
2004 Stats: 94 GP / 267 AB / 36 R / 13 HR / 57 RBI / 4 SB / .266 AVG
General Info: Like Morneau, Utley has yet to play a full season and that’s why he should slide under the radar screen. Utley is a good-sized second basemen, with some great pop for the position he plays. In only 390 at bats between AAA and the majors Utley had 19 home runs and 82 RBI. He hasn’t been hyped too much because the Phillies have Cole Hamels and Gavin Floyd as the gems in their minor league system but Utley is going to turn into a real player. In every year of AAA he’s had at least 16 homers and 70 RBI. You might not be impressed with those kinds of stats, but second basemen are very hard to find; let alone quality ones. Every year he is moved between AAA and the Phillies as an injury replacement and September call-up. Placido Polanco will not be back will the club next season and Chase finally has a chance to settle in with one team. He more than proved he can handle major league pitchers and his numbers should improve greatly if he can avoid the sophomore slump.
Breakdown: Top 10 second baseman. I’d take him right after the top tier of Giles, Boone, Soriano, Loretta, Vidro, etc.
My Projection: 75 R / 18 HR / 70 RBI / 5 SB / .280 AVG
Shortstop: Jose Reyes, New York Mets
2004 Stats: 53 GP / 220 AB / 33 R / 2 HR / 14 RBI / 19 SB / .255 AVG
General Info: Is this the year? You know what I’m talking about. Is this the year Reyes finally stays healthy. I’m going to optimistically say yes. But that’s dependent on Reyes working with Dr. Shilstone in New Orleans. Those 2004 stats aren’t very impressive at all but Reyes was really bothered by injuries the whole season. The stat that should stand out at you is the games played vs. stolen bases ratio. Jose stole 19 bases in only 53 games and it really came on whenever he felt 100%. By looking at his split stats its evident when he was healthy; July. He accumulated 110 AB that month. That’s the most at bats he received in a month last season. And that’s when he played his best. In that month alone he stole 11 bases, had 8 doubles and batted .318. If you’re looking for 30 HR’s from your shortstop go someone else. But if Reyes can stay on the field he should be atop the league leaders in Runs, Stolen Bases, and Average.
Breakdown: Top 10 shortstop, if he can stay healthy.
My Projection: 100 R / 13 HR / 60 RBI / 40 SB / .300 AVG
Third Basemen: Joe Crede, Chicago White Sox
2004 Stats: 144 GP / 490 AB / 67 R / 20 HR / 69 RBI / 1 SB / .239 AVG
General Info: The last two seasons have been a relative disappointment for Joe Crede. In 2002 he hit 12 HR in only 53 games, setting high expectations for the youngster. In 2003 he hit .261 with 19 HR and 75 RBI in his first full season. This was a far cry from projections for his first full season. He was unable to put his sophomore slump behind him as he continued to disappoint in 2004. His numbers basically repeated but his average greatly regressed. If he even repeated his average from 2003 at least his RBI and Run totals would have been better. In what was termed as ‘a change in his swing’, he quickly played a lot better. To end the year Crede hit 5 HR and 15 RBI with 11 Runs to go along with an improved .275 average in the final month of the season. If he can carry forward his new found swing into 2005 he will be a very good starting third base option in a deeper league, or one of the best backup hitters you can find.
Breakdown: Top 15 third baseman.
My Projection: 70 R / 25 HR / 80 RBI / 0 SB / .270 AVG
Outfielder: Garret Anderson, Anaheim Angels
2004 Stats: 112 GP / 442 AB / 57 R / 14 HR / 69 RBI / 2 SB / .301 AVG
General Info: First my thought was to pick Rocco Baldelli. But no, he has to go out and get hurt playing at his house. Fine, top sleeper number two, Jason Kubel. Never mind that idea, same injury: torn ACL. He suffered this injury during AFL games this month. Anyway, Mr. Dependable, Garret Anderson, burnt me last season. The 4 seasons before he had at least 115 RBI in every year! But nope, not when I draft him. He has to get hurt the one time I get him. Garret Anderson has not had a season under 600 AB except his rookie season in 1995, and then last year. Garret was hurt a lot last year and missed a substantial amount of time. If you look at his stats on a “per at-bat” basis they were right on pace with his usual totals despite the fact he played many of those games in pain. Other owners will look at his season totals and the injury and devalue him. If you remember that this injury-marred season was an anomaly and that he is likely to put up 600 at-bats in 2005, you should find great value in your draft. Seeing as he did play on pace with what the stats he normally reaches, I see no reason for him not to have another huge season like we are used to.
Breakdown: Top 10 outfielder.
My Projection: 90 R / 29 HR / 120 RBI / 0 SB / .305 AVG
Starting Pitcher: Javier Vazquez, New York Yankees
2004 Stats: 32 GS / 198 IP / 14 W / 4.91 ERA / 241 K / 1.29 WHIP
General Info: Now what happened here? Last year people were calling Vazquez a possible Cy Young candidate early in the pre-season. What a horrible bet that was. Vazquez couldn’t have had a worse season. He is one of the most talented pitchers in the league and after being traded to the Yankees, everything seemed to come together. Before coming to the Big Apple, Vazquez was dominating the N.L on the worst team in the league. But this season, something was different. He didn’t seem confident. He didn’t seem to have the winning attitude, and his pitching suffered. His fastball was flat and his breaking pitches weren’t biting. Hopefully he can turn it around because he has a ton of potential. I believe in him and I think he will have a career year next season in the Bronx.
Breakdown: Top 15 Starter.
My Projection: 17 W / 3.35 ERA / 210 K / 1.20 WHIP
It is too early to provide a sleeper for relief pitchers since most closer situations have either established closers or none at all.