THIS ARTICLE WAS SUBMITTED BY ROSINEATER AS PART OF THE 2004 MEMBER ARTICLE SUBMISSION CONTEST.

“RISK”: likelihood of loss or less than expected returns. (investorwords.com)

Last year (2004), Jamie Moyer ‘slipped’ for $14 in my AL-4x4 Auction League. The winning bidder let out a Homer-style “Woo-hoo!”  Someone said, “Steal of the draft.”

And why not? Moyer was a rotation anchor for a team that routinely won 90+ games. He had returned values of $34, $27 & $37 over the previous three seasons .

No one predicted that Moyer would return the ‘lucky’ bidder a negative value ($-7) for the year, devastate his ERA and WHIP and, in no small part, cost him a shot at the title.

This article looks at fantasy pitching from an investor’s point of view. Although it’s written from the perspective of an auction leaguer, I’ve added notes on how to apply its strategies to straight drafts as well.   

“SYSTEMATIC RISK”: Risk which is common to an entire class of assets or liabilities. (investorwords.com)

Soon after I joined my first rotisserie baseball league in 1993, a veteran of the game provided me this quality advice: “You can’t count on pitchers from year to year.”

Pitching investments are always risky. How well you manage this risk often determines your level of success in your fantasy league.

The Moyer phenomenon is far from unique. Whether you play in the 4x4 or 5x5 format, pitchers are less likely than hitters to deliver or exceed their projected values:

AL Players with 2004 PROJECTED VALUES of $5 or more

Player Type           Tot #       MET or EXCEEDED     MET or EXCEEDED
League Format     Players     PROJECTION(#)       PROJECTION(%)
PITCHERS, 4x4       65                   20                         31%
HITTERS, 4x4        128                  58                         45%
PITCHERS, 5x5       65                   21                         32%
HITTERS, 5x5        129                  58                         45%
SOURCE: 2004 PROJECTED VALUES AND 2004 ACTUAL VALUES FROM ROTOTIMES.COM

2004 AL Players, Min 60 IP (Pitchers) or 100 AB (Hitters)

Player Type            Total             EARNED POS         EARNED NEG         EARNED NEG
League Format         #                VALUE (#)              VALUE (#)              VALUE (%)
PITCHERS, 4x4     125               83                        42                   34%
HITTERS, 4x4       202             168                        34                   17%
PITCHERS, 5x5     125               97                        28                   22%
HITTERS, 5x5       202             180                        22                   11%


Just to clarify, by returning a negative value a player isn’t just performing below expectation (as in a ‘negative return’). Taking the season as a whole, having a negative value player on your squad does you more harm (usually via poor batting average, ERA or WHIP) than good.

The strikeout category saves many pitchers from returning negative values in the 5x5 format (Moyer was an example of this, returning a $3 value in 5x5 leagues). However, the runs category seems to create a similar effect for hitters.

Why is pitching such a risky proposition? I could suggest any number of baseball explanations. Injuries, even slight, can induce mechanical flaws that hinder performance and lead to further injury. Pitchers often have to battle through “dead arm,” confidence issues and general ineffectiveness. Team defence and luck can factor in, too.

One might suggest that hitters face similar hardships, but consider this: even a single, horrible outing can have a huge negative impact on a pitcher’s stats – the kind of impact a hitter would need to mire in a prolonged slump to duplicate. A pitcher needs only to endure a few brutal shellings over the course of a season and he’s staring negative value in the face.

“RISK MANAGEMENT”: The process of analyzing exposure to risk and determining how to best handle each situation. (investorwords.com)

When faced with systematic risk, investors employ some of the following strategies:

1. MINIMIZE YOUR INVESTMENT IN THE SECTOR:

In other words, allocate more of your resources away from pitching and towards hitting.

Before any auction draft you should have an idea of how much you intend to spend on hitting and pitching. Given a $260 cap I’ll rarely spend more than $75 on pitching, and sometimes I’ll go as low as $60. There are exceptions – for example, if I feel I have substantial hitting value protected on my keeper list I’ll spend a bit more on quality pitching.

Given the amount of risk pitchers carry, there really isn’t much separating a pitcher with a projected value of $9 from one with a projected value of $4. So rather than getting into a bidding war for any particular pitcher just grab the next guy on your list. Spend your savings on hitting, where it can really make a difference.

STRAIGHT DRAFTERS: If torn between a pitcher and a hitter, draft the hitter and take your chances with another pitcher down your list. (AKA: the Blaster Draft Method) 

2. HEDGE YOUR BETS:

Never bid to a pitcher’s upside!

Your maximum bid should be somewhere below a pitcher’s projected value -- exactly where depends on how risky the pitcher you’re bidding on. You might wish to go up to 80% for a quality starter. You’ll need to go higher to land a premium closer.

For all other pitchers you should be looking to pay no more than 50% of their projected value.

The key to accomplishing this is patience. Toward the end of any auction there are at least a dozen third and fourth starters or quality set-up men who go for a fraction of their projected values. Why? They’re “unsexy” picks, available at a time in the auction where most owners are low on funds.

Don’t worry if these picks don’t have high “upsides.” If you can round out your staff with four projected $9 pitchers you paid $4 each for, that’s all the upside you need! You’re minimizing your risk and setting up potential bargains.

You won’t get the rookie phenoms at these prices, but that’s ok – they’re among the riskiest pitchers of all. You might just get a “Jake Westbrook,” a guy who suddenly puts it all together several years into his career (again, like Moyer). You’ll get some busts, too, but assuming your league has free agents or a waiver wire, who cares? It hurts a lot less to go to the wire to replace a $4 flyer than a $12 flop.

STRAIGHT DRAFTERS:  The bottom few openings on your pitching staff should be among the last you fill. Let everyone else spend his mid-round picks on risky, middle-tier pitchers while you fill out your offence with the guys you really like. Then swoop in and grab the sleeper pitchers.

3. GO “BLUE CHIP”: 

Look for the most solid, proven assets within the sector. I call them “blue chip” pitchers – guys who consistently produce near or beyond expectations and have no current or lingering arm problems or other debilitations.

I don’t have a set formula for identifying these guys. They can be found by eyeballing career stats. They are often, but not necessarily, the “ace”-types. Sure, they have names like Maddux, Rivera and Johnson (Randy, not Jason). But they also have names like Buehrle and Wells -- guys who don’t dominate but who have rubber arms and provide their particular stat set year-in, year-out.

Because of their relative safety and scarcity, I’m willing to bid up to projected value for blue chip pitchers. Unfortunately, there’s still some risk within the blue chip sector -- before 2004, you’d surely have included Moyer in this group.

STRAIGHT DRAFTERS:  It’s OK to grab a blue chip pitcher a bit earlier than you might other pitchers. I try to get at least one blue chip ace-type and one blue chip closer in the early rounds -- before they’re all gone.

4. MANAGE YOUR PORTFOLIO:

Someone could write an essay just on this topic, but you know the basics. Keep a close eye on your investments. If your bargain starters are struggling, bench ‘em  -- if they continue to struggle, drop ‘em.  Play the matchups – bench ‘em against the stronger teams. Don’t let ‘em start in Denver. Or in Arlington for that matter! Do your research. Use the waiver wire.

STRAIGHT DRAFTERS:  Ditto.

Despite appearances, fantasy baseball isn’t really a baseball contest. It’s a contest in investment. Baseball statistics, instead of market factors, determine the value of your portfolio, and the investor whose portfolio returns the most value over the course of the season wins.

So if you want to win your league, think like an investor.

THIS ARTICLE WAS SUBMITTED BY GUNKDOG AS PART OF THE 2004 MEMBER ARTICLE CONTEST.

*****Hang with me … I wanted to be different than the other articles*****

I admit it … I love fantasy sports.  My team, the Desert Center Wolfpac, is whipping up my fantasy football league (Thanks T.O., Tiki, and Curtis!).  But the real players, the real fantasy sports owners with all the skillz, are in fantasy baseball.

I left New Jersey in ’99 and I was in a very competitive league.  Last season, I took over a team, in that same league, back home.  Some people call me crazy.  Why would you fly all the way across country for a fantasy baseball league?  I figure it gives me a reason to go home and visit the family and take some time off from work.  More importantly, it is just one of the highest competition leagues I have ever seen.  It is an auction style with a salary cap, 3 year keeper rule, and a 17 player minor league team.  Why is it that 12 guys, sitting around, talking baseball for a whole weekend is so exciting?

Fantasy baseball brings fans close to the games.  Owners learn what it takes to win.  For people who are teachers, plumbers, engineers, or police officers, fantasy baseball puts one in a place where every sports fan dreams, general manager.

A general manager is involved in all aspects of the game:  the power, the control, the passion.  Your fantasy team keeps you going even when your die-hard favorite pro team sucks it up!

Fantasy baseball puts average people in the dream world of sports management.  Bragging about your championship in the fantasy world is like bragging on Saturday morning about scoring with that hot blonde from the bar in the black mini-skirt and knee high leather boots! 

But as the calendar pages turn and spring training gets closer, the brains are spinning faster and faster.  If I hold onto J.D. Drew, will he get hurt again or have another solid season?  Do Maddux and Glavine have enough to come back?  Budgets are getting set up:  70/30 or 60/40 or do I got wild with an 80/20.  Stats are being memorized:  who went 30/30 or 20/20? , who had the most holds?  Minor league players are getting evaluated.  To steal a phrase from a popular song (sing it with me!), “it’s the most wonderful time of the year!”

Everybody has their own strategies.  Everybody has their own players they want.  For everybody who says they have won a league not picking a pitcher until the fourth round, there are owners who have won without picking a hitter until the fourth round.  So it is hard for me to write about strategies … heck, I think a single owner can compete in two different leagues, use two different strategies and still win both.   So I decided to list a whole bunch of advice for an auction. 

1. Don’t party too hard the night before the auction.  No headaches or hangovers.
   
2. More like1b.  Don’t drink during the draft.  Alcohol can only cloud your thoughts about players!   Kind of like that time at the bar that Friday night where I saw this hottie in a leather mini-skirt and leather boots... those weren't leather boots, that was thick hair!
   
3. In an auction, set a budget and stick to it.  And remember ... "Come big or don’t come at all. "
   
4. Watch the World Poker Tour.  Being a successful player sin an auction is like being a successful poker player.  You just have to know when to hold ‘em or when to fold ‘em.  (i.e.  You have to know when to throw your money in there after the player or let him go to somebody else!)
   
5. Don’t overbid just to get you favorite players.  Darin Erstad for 20 bucks please!! DAMMIT!! Why did I do that!  A statement like that will hurt your budget.  Not too mention that other owners in the league will expect you to be bidding on players you like and they will want to set you up.  I actually walked outside when Mike Sweeney was put up for auction. 
   
6. You cannot go wrong getting a player from your girl’s favorite team (but make sure to follow 5. as well).  This can only help your chances at checking box scores online at night instead of watching the O.C. or Desperate Housewives!
   
7. Read, read, read.  Visit websites like RotoChamps.com to get the latest news, injuries, transactions, and rumors.
   
8. It never hurts to look back at previous years for your league.  Average it out to see how many overall points will be needed to place in the top three.  Look at others owners and their trends.  I figure out the budget for every other owner in my league from the year before (i.e. 60/40 or 50/50 of 70/30).  I know if an owner goes after power hitters or avg./runs/sb. guys or even all pitchers.  I know that one of my owners goes after the middle of the diamond (SS, 2B, C, P).  It really helps because in the late hours of the auction, you can tell where somebody is going to put their money. 

If you are in auction, I hope this helps.  As free agency starts rolling, hopefully I get the chance to pound out more articles for RotoChamps!  Good luck! 

~Dog

If you have prepared as we suggested in our last article Preparing for Your Auction, then you are ready to go into your auction and control the action. If you follow the rules we have outlined below you should come away from the auction with a strong roster and the knowledge that you greatly influenced the rosters of your competitors. This does not mean that you will have all the best players, but you should have the RIGHT players for your roster.

You should have 3 charts in front of you at all times. First you need your chart of player rankings and dollar values that we developed earlier. The second chart tracks the money available for each owner. You want to note how much each player goes for and how much above or below your projection it is. This will tell you how other owners value the players in your league. You should also note who put that player up for bid. You will be able to figure out which owners throw out players they want and which ones don't. The third chart is a position chart for each owner so you know who still needs to fill which positions. Armed with these charts let’s look at the auction strategy.

EARLY ROUNDS

Do not win any bids in the first couple rounds unless a huge bargain presents itself. Instead use this time to watch the other owners draft and see how the top players are being valued.

When it is your turn to throw out a name for bid always throw out a high dollar player that you do not intend to take. This will draw out money from the other owners, and help you create bargains in the middle rounds. When you introduce these players bid aggressively until the bid is a few dollars short of what you believe the player will go for, and then reluctantly drop out. It is important that the other owners believe you really valued that player.

MIDDLE ROUNDS

As the middle third of the draft approaches you want to introduce players at a position that you and another owner both need to fill. You want to introduce a mid-level player at that position that you do not want to end up with. Then push that owner to a few dollars below value. Even if he gets the player at a discount it still leaves him out of the running for the player you actually wanted when he comes up for bid.

The middle part of the draft is also the time to introduce sleepers. This is when people have paid for their top dollar guys and are being conservative waiting for the end game bargains. You may be able to slip a sleeper or two through this time frame. It is important that you appear as cautious and uncertain in your bidding as your fellow owners are.

END-GAME

There are always many bargains to be found in the end-game. Never introduce a player that you do not want on your team during this phase of the auction. Many players end up going for the opening bid.

The best values in this part of the auction are pitchers. Every year there are pitchers who go for $1 and easily bring in $10 of value during the season.

If you have tracked the bidding habits correctly and followed your competitors roster needs accurately, you should have had a successful auction. Remember that just knowing the rules is not enough, you must have a great poker face as well.

Having participated in countless drafts and auctions, I believe I’ve seen everything that other owners do to prepare for their respective auctions. Some people purchase the latest preseason publications, and hope that the outdated information contained within will be all the preparation that they need. Others print off ranking charts from the internet and read the recent news headlines. And then there are those who show up with a laptop, draft/auction analysis software, and piles of printed charts, graphs, cross-referenced indices, and more. All of these people will have trouble with their auctions.

It is very important to be prepared, but too much material can leave one feeling disorganized and flustered. The panic bids, that can result while shuffling through papers and software data, can all be avoided by trying the following method:

1. Several weeks prior to the auction begin reading one or two of the great books that are published every year. Ron Shandler’s Baseball Forecaster and Baseball Prospectus are utilized by baseball executives throughout baseball, and are great places to start.

2. Follow the daily news on the internet, keeping track of player movement and injuries. That information is available here.

3. As the auction nears, develop depth charts, which will help in forecasting playing time. We have already done the work for you. Just visit our Team Pages.

4. Using the information from the depth charts you can develop projections for each player based on the playing time you believe they will receive. There is no one right way to forecast performance. Some people just use three year averages, many others use complex regression analysis, and some track trends in player skills ratios. Use whatever method(s) you feel most comfortable with. At RotoChamps, we believe in tracking the skill ratios that underlie the primary statistics.

5. Once you have your projections, a value must be assigned to each player. This requires an understanding of the league scoring system. There are many different ways to determine the value of a player. A good place to start is the book How to Value Players for Rotisserie Baseball by Art McGee. We have also provided custom rankings and price lists found here.

6. As I pointed out above, having the information easily available and organized will make the auction a great deal easier. This is best achieved, by consolidating everything into one or two pieces of paper containing all of the players separated by position and ranked by value within each position.

All of your knowledge and preparation are now contained within one or two pieces of paper. If you just trust the work you did leading up to this point you can confidently draft based off of the rankings in front of you. While everyone else is shuffling through papers to find the information they need you can spend your time tracking what everyone else is doing.

But that is something for another article