(Note: This was written before Spring Training, so injuries are unaccounted for in the final rankings, although I make note of them in the comment section)

Ladies and gentlemen of Rotochamps...

I give you my 2006 Tiers of Starting Pitchers. This is my third year of doing this (albeit on a different message board than this one for the other two), and I've (hopefully) learned enough to actually make a damn bit of difference for you all in your leagues in that span. And by God, I hope I’ve finally figured out how to make some damn good pitching projections. So let’s get into the nitty gritty of this year’s evaluation.

Firstly, I want to say that, of all things, pitching projections seem to be the easiest, most fulfilling, and most fun for me. That’s not to say I’m an expert or guru or whatever, but I feel like I should go into my methodology a bit to show you what this tiered ranking is all about. Therefore you’ll have a good idea what I’m thinking as well as how I’m processing those thoughts into the list. Also, it gives me a bit more credibility than just typing up a paragraph about some random pitcher and having you guys think I’m a pompous no talent ass-clown. Okay, let’s talk about pitching as a five part equation. It really boils down to:

1) Strikeouts (the only factor independent of all the rest)
2) Walks
3) Groundball/Flyball ratio (both in terms of deterring homeruns as well as the affect the defense has on either/or)
4) Team Defense
5) Park Factor.

I’ve outlined this before in a couple previous posts this off-season, and while it’s not a definitive formula, it’s a damned fine guideline. Essentially, last year I didn’t take into account team defense and how much it will affect the outcome of the pitcher’s overall ERA. I also didn’t give G/F rates enough weight. So, essentially, while I had the ingredients, I didn’t have the fermenter, and I sure as hell wasn’t cooking my stats long enough. The motto of this story is, defense, defense, defense! It’s more a part of pitching than I ever realized, so don’t you forget it.

I’m going to throw a stat around that you need to learn. It’s called Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), and you should be extraordinarily familiar with it by the end of this post. FIP (and its brothers and sisters -- for example, xERA) is one of the best tools ever designed (an awesome blogger who goes by the moniker Tangotiger came up with it – Tango is an excellent and creative mind in terms of fan stats). It essentially takes out the fielding element of pitching so that you can see what a pitcher would be doing in terms of ERA without his fielders’ assistance. Check it out at The Hardball Times on their THT Pitching stat page, and you’ll find some extremely interesting and useful info. Utilize this along with new age defensive metrics you can find available on the net (like DER, PMR, Prospectus’ RATE, etc.) and you have yourself a rough guesstimate of a pitcher’s peak performance. Of course, luck still plays a huge factor.

When you see a guy who has a low FIP relative to his real ERA, it means his fielders were hurting his final stats. If that defense is typically considered to be a good one by measurable stats, then this pitcher would be considered unlucky. The reverse is true as well. FIP is also useful because it allows you to see that a guy like Jeremy Bonderman pitched like a guy who should be receiving a 3.94 ERA while his defense essentially squandered enough of his balls in play to up that to his final 4.57 line. Yes, the Tigers have a pretty shittty defense. Yes, this will directly affect Bonderman’s numbers. No, I will not give refunds to those who took my advice on Bonderman being as good as Harden to Vegas last year. Stop gambling, for the love of God.

See the usefulness of this stat, fellas? It’s pretty damn awesome, honestly. It eliminates a lot of the luck into one tiny little ERA-rated number. It shows skillset without the defensive luck element, and then you can add in your own scouting thoughts and defensive projections after the fact. Beyond that, if you’ve got two guys who you think are even, always lean towards the guy in the NL. Use FIP wisely, guys, and think kind thoughts of me when you do (or just win your league and spend your winnings on **** tons of beer in my honor – either works for me). And that’s it. End of explanation.

Let’s get to some tiers, ay. Remember, the tiers themselves are pro-rated for Mixed League 12-teamers, but I’ve gone on and included just about everyone I could think of and added my thoughts. It’s not just the tiers you should pay attention to. The notes may be the more useful element when all is said and done. So much like Roger Ebert says, “Read the review, not the star rating,” please do the same here. Also, please don't interpret this as a ranked list of where you should draft a player. These are my rankings for eventual 2006 values, not where your leaguemates will value the player. You know your leaguemates much better than I, so you be the judge of where you can get these players to maximize their value. One last note: I’ve left a lot of lower-rung prospects off the list. I’m not a minor league guru, and I simply don’t keep up with the minors enough in most organizations to list off guys I think will help out this year at some point. However, I do know an awful lot about the Mariners’ system. So I’ve included M’s pitchers that will likely show their face in the majors this year, and what you can expect from them, too. I’m sure plenty of you guys know an awful lot about your own favorite team’s minor leaguers, so please feel free to list any other minor league systems and the players that could contribute in 2006. Now off to the races…

(Ranked tiers are listed in order of my calculated highest to lowest dollar values earned in 2006)

Tier One: (1st Round Talent)

1. Johan Santana, MIN – Free Santana indeed.

2. Felix Hernandez, SEA – This isn’t about hype. This is about one of the most uniquely gifted pitchers to come around in the history of baseball. And that’s fact. His combination of velocity/stuff, pitch repertoire, and heavy groundball inducing ability along with his home ballpark and above average infield defense make him one of the surest pitching bets this year and also one of the most uniquely talented pitchers in the last 40 years. He’s already one of the best pitchers in baseball, and you’re making a mistake if you don’t want him just because he’s not “proven.” On rare occasions, skillset transcends a small sample. This is one of those times. Also, future notice: next year, I expect him to be ranked #1, especially with Torii Hunter likely to be leaving the flyball prone Santana.

Tier Two: (Top 8 Round Talent)

3. Jake Peavy, SD – He’s officially an ace, although his health is a decent question mark. His gradually increasing G/F, his improvingly excellent control and strikeout rates, Vinny Castilla at third, and Mike Cameron roaming center all bode extremely well for Peavy.

4. Roger Clemens. FA – His ERA was luck/fielding-aided last year, but he was still awesome, and hell, he’s only one of the best pitchers of All-Time. If he comes back to the NL, he deserves to be ranked in the Top 10 pretty easily (if not the Top 5). I’d be a bit more wary if he goes over to the AL unless it’s for a good defensive team, though.

5. Chris Carpenter, STL – He threw roughly 1100 more pitches in ’05 than he did in ’04. For a guy with a track record of arm injuries, I’d call that a red flag. He’s also 31, so I don’t anticipate much more improvement from this point onward. Beyond that, his peripheral stats support his main numbers, i.e. he’s pretty damn good.

6. Rich Harden, OAK – Can he stay healthy? Other than that, he’s got to continue improving upon his control, which he can and will do. The big thing at this point is the health. I don’t remember him having many problems in the minors, so we’ll give him a partial mulligan for ’05 and hope his arm, hip, and body are healthy and raring to go. Oh, and watch out for the gradually declining G/F ratio leading to an increase in HR’s allowed. Despite my concerns, he’s clearly one of the best pitchers in the AL at this point, and he’s still got room to grow. Anecdotally, he’s a great watch on television when he gets a bit angry, as he will rare back and toss as hard as he possibly can, foregoing some of his control. Fun stuff, lol.

7. Ben Sheets, MIL – That inner ear thing gone? If so, count me in as a Sheet’s owner in ’06. I love this guy’s strikeout to walk ratio. Love! (Editor's Note: The injury bug bit Sheets early again this season, so temper this ranking a bit, although I still love the guy.)

8. Pedro Martinez, NYM – Pedro’s decline continued in ‘05, but it was masked by his switch to the NL, being in a better pitcher’s park, and having a better defense. He did have markedly improved control last season from where it had been the last couple of years with the Red Sox, but unless his control continues to improve, his declining strikeout rate is eventually going to catch up with him. That fourth year for the Mets may be a backbreaker after all as his strikeout decline is going faster than I anticipated. (Editor's Note: His velocity is way down with the big toe injury, but if you can get him at any sort of discount, take him and run).

9. Roy Oswalt, HOU – Talk about a strange turn of events. While he looked to be the next great strikeout pitcher a few years ago, his K’s have gradually decreased year after year to where it would almost be considered a breaking point in terms of his success… if he hadn’t also become one of the game’s better control pitchers along with inducing more and more grounders as the years went by. Anecdotally, I feel like Oswalt has changed his style to preserve his arm and slight build from the wear and tear of the baseball season. In any case, he’s still an excellent pitcher, although I think the days of believing he could someday be a strikeout king are over.

10. Kelvim Escobar, ANA – One of the most underrated pitchers in my estimation. His ERA last year was dead real, and if he can stave off the bone spurs, he’s one of the best pitchers in the AL. The injury risk is real, but so is the talent.

11. Andy Pettitte, HOU – Perhaps my one of my favorite projections from last year, Pettitte’s first full season in the NL. Yes, his 2.39 ERA was luck/fielding aided. Yes, it’s unlikely that Pettitte will repeat that number. But his FIP was 3.05, which is excellent in an of its own right, and that along with his very good G/F and a pretty good K/9 suggest Pettitte is absolutely for real.

12. John Lackey, ANA – Lackey shot through the roof of my perceived talent cap for which I pegged him going into last season. Now one of the better strikeout pitchers in the game, it appears all the scouting hype about him was right. Striking out roughly 8.5 batters per game and upping his G/F ratio significantly will do that to a guy. If he can continue his upward arc -- and considering his age, it’s likely -- he may very well be the ace of the Angels’ staff in 2006. If he reigns in his control just a bit, he will be just that. I guess those scouts that likened him to a young Jason Schmidt were right, ay. The Angels are not in as bad a shape as many in the media would lead you to believe with Escobar, Lackey, and Colon combining as a helluva trio.

13. Roy Halladay, TOR – Halladay’s success is predicated off of him excelling in G/F rates and control along with having a pretty good K/9. I wonder how much of a downgrade the groundball pitcher will experience without the awesome infield defense of Orlando Hudson behind him, though. I also wonder if he can hold up all year.

14. Randy Johnson, NYY – Perhaps we should’ve seen the lower numbers coming given his switch to the AL and the defensively challenged Yankees team. And while I downgraded him a bit last season, it still wasn’t nearly enough. As his velocity has decreased, he’s become a bit more reliant on his control and his slider. Also, with the two less strikeouts per game on average, he’s essentially giving his opponents more opportunities to hit his slower stuff out of the park. He may see a bit of an improvement with Damon roaming center instead of the atrocities the Yanks put out there last year, but don’t expect Big Ugly to be a 1st round fantasy starter ever again.

15. A.J. Burnett, TOR – His success is similar to Halladay’s, except he utilizes a higher strikeout rate while having less control. Their G/F were remarkably similar last year, although unlike Halladay, it was a tremendous leap ahead of what he had produced in the past. It’s funny, because last season, I honestly believed Burnett would turn the corner in terms of control. Well, he went the other way and managed to do something that is far less frequent of an occurrence and become a much more successful groundball pitcher than in season’s past. Also, he’ll miss not having Lowell and Castillo behind him along with being in the DH league now, so unless you get him at a good price (i.e. people thought last year was flukey), don’t go banking the farm on him. Burnett’s one of the least consistent upper tier pitchers, so while the talent’s there, you’ll want to make sure he’s the right choice for your team if you go after him.

16. Brandon Webb, ARI – Ah, the trials and travails of being one of the most dominant groundball pitchers in the game. Orlando Hudson in the infield will help. So will a younger team. I like that he’s finally harnessing that incredible sinker, and it’s showing up in his walk rate. But I still think he’s a Chris Young in center field and a consistent defender at third base away from being an ace.

17. Curt Schilling, BOS – Did you know that Curt Schilling’s FIP was better than Carlos Zambrano’s, Randy Johnson’s, and Kevin Millwood’s last year? Me neither. Considering the news that his ankle now feels 100%, he’s a great sleeper in the AL.

18. Mark Buehrle, CHW – I’ve consistently underrated Buehrle (as have most statisticians) for a good long while now. So without further ado, allow me to bow to the Buehrle supporters once and for all. Finally, he’s come into his own as he’s refined his control to the point where his low-end strikeout rates become bearable. Factor in that he plays in front of a great defense, and his success becomes obvious. He’s always an excellent bet to give you 230+ innings, too, so give the man his props. He’s now the pitcher that so many of his fans always claimed him to be.

19. John Patterson, WAS – High strikeout rates are so much fun, aren’t they? Combine that and the flyball-destroying RFK Stadium, and the flyball oriented Patterson looks to be just as good a bet to repeat his ’05 success as any. Though as with most pitchers, health is a concern. Also, as with any hurler who has had control problems, there is a risk that he will revert if anything is thrown out of whack. Oliver Perez, anyone? Then again, Patterson’s motion isn’t nearly as violent as Perez’, so take of that what you will.

20. Chris Young, SD – Here’s a guy with an extremely bright future. What the Rangers were thinking is anyone’s guess (mine is that they saw the high flyball rate and got a bit scared), but those flyballs are going to die a quick death in the cavernous Petco Field. My favorite part about the move to San Diego is that Young will now team up with Mike Cameron for one of the most dynamic flyball pitcher/stud defensive center field tandems in the big leagues. There’s a lot to like when a guy has good strikeout and walk rates in the AL and he moves over to the DH-less NL. I think his numbers last year are a low-end projection for ’06, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s one of the best values in the entirety of the starting pitching landscape. Cameron is the key, as a center fielder makes all the difference in the world for flyball pitchers (just ask Beane and Kotsay).

3rd Tier: (Top 15 Round Talent)

21. Carlos Zambrano, CHC – He’s good, but he’s not great just yet. He’s perhaps a little overrated at this point, as he’s still not a great strikeout pitcher – just a very good one. And the Cubs’ defense is always a little suspect. However, his groundball proclivities will suit him the best of any of the Cubs vaunted starters, and he’s still young and improving. Just don’t expect the world from him, k?

22. C.C. Sabathia, CLE – His groundball tendencies have always been good. His work ethic, arm health, and bank balance after a day at the buffet have not. But lookie what we have here… it’s a strikeout rate that has improved three years running and a walk rate that was his best ever. Sabathia may be poised to have an excellent season… if he can JUST STOP EATING!!! (Editor's Note: Ouch. He's out for a while.)

23. Bartolo Colon, ANA – Overrated, but not horrible (yes, goddammit, I was wrong about him -- there, I said it). He’s no ace, although he is durable. His stats were luck/fielding-driven to a degree in ’05, but at least he’s improving his control. As an aside, would anyone like to throw a dinner party for Colon, Sabathia, and an out-of-work Rich “El Guapo” Garces and let me know what happens?

24. Mark Prior, CHC – It’s becoming increasingly obvious (and painfully so – admitted Prior owner here) that Prior’s flyball style of pitching hurts him to a detrimental degree in Wrigley Field. He’s had consistently poor fielding all around him, too – especially in the outfield – and his ERA and WHIP have suffered accordingly. The Jaque Jones signing helps a bit, but until the Cubs get a good defender in center, Prior will be downgraded on all my boards. Worse still is that Pierre is actually a worse defender than Corey Patterson. Good God, it must hurt to be a Cubs fan sometimes, yeesh. Unless Prior returns to his 2003 levels of control, essentially offsetting his poor defense and flyball tendencies, it would be tough to expect anything more than ERA’s in the high 3’s. Considering how often he’s been getting hurt and how rusty Prior looks every time he comes back from an injury, I think it’s a tough bet to expect the impeccable control to return with any consistency, too. (Editor's Note: Down goes Prior! It must suck to be a Cubs fan, lol.)

25. John Smoltz, ATL – Smoltz threw 150 more innings and a boatload more pitches last year than in the previous year – a massive increase in workload considering he had not started in over five years. He’s also going to be 39 years old in May and has a laundry list filled out where his injury history should be. I’m not saying he didn’t have an amazing year given the circumstances, and his owners last year were rewarded for taking the chance on him. But with the workload uppage and the old age and the injuries, are you really going to pay at or even near full price for this guy? Me neither.

26. Dan Haren, OAK – Good groundball rates, good K/BB ratio, good defense behind him – all in his first full year as a regular starter. Color me impressed. He looks like the real deal.

27. Jeremy Bonderman, DET – I was blind last year – blind as to how important defense should be in terms of pitching projections. No longer, though. Bondy is going to be hurt for the foreseeable future by his woeful defense. And while he improved his control a tick, he’s going to need to amp up his K’s again to be considered ace-like at any point. Also, I’m a bit worried about a dead arm as he has thrown a ton of innings at such a young age at this point.

28. Cliff Lee, CLE – Lee sacrificed over 1.5 strikeouts per game to reign in on his previously bad control in ‘05, and the results were favorable. In the second half alone, he progressed to the point where he had an over 3:1 K/BB ratio. My big concern with him is his proclivity to give up tons of flyballs (he’s a pretty severe flyball pitcher), but Cleveland’s stadium is a relatively forgiving park, so it shouldn’t hurt him overtly. Also, one wonders if he can find the ability to pump those K’s back up without losing his newfound control. I’m a bit skeptical on that point, so he may be at a point where his improvement curve is nearing its apex.

29. Scott Kazmir, TB – Talented in any number of ways (Way to go, Mets!) He’ll likely bloom along with the positional players in the organization, and the Rays will begin their run against the AL East in ’08. Or perhaps he’ll come along a bit earlier in ’07. But I do think he’ll still have another year of growing pains in ’06, especially with his suspect control – not to mention the fact that the Rays aren’t an especially good defensive team and oh by the way they have one of the larget defensive liabilities in baseball waiting to happen in B.J. Upton. All that being said, Kazmir could make the biggest leap of everyone on this list if he works hard on his game in ’06.

30. Brett Myers, PHI – Good and improving strikeout rate. Good groundball rate. Control is meh, but also improving. Score one for the scouts on this one. I thought Myers was destined for mediocrity. I was damn wrong. Only thing that worries me is the park, so don’t go ga-ga over Myers and forget that point.

31. Aaron Harang, CIN – An interesting pitcher given that no one really expected anything from him after he was traded from Oakland to Cincy. This is perhaps one of the few times that Beane underestimated what he was trading away. Harang has morphed himself into a good strikeout pitcher with quite good control. You don’t find those guys hanging on trees. The tough thing for Harang is that the Reds refuse to move Griffey out of center field where he’s one of the biggest liabilities in baseball at this point, and Kearns and Dunn are both pretty bad at their respective positions. Oh, and did I mention that Harang was essentially a flyball pitcher? Frankly, this is a mess of a team defensively, and their pitchers are going to underperform statwise because of it.

32. Erik Bedard, BAL – He’s for real, and he’ll likely be the ace the Orioles have been longing for. Health is an issue, but stuff is not. Unfortunately, defense is also an issue for the O’s. Bedard is a relative neutral G/F guy, so he’s going to rely on both his infield and outfield, both of which are somewhat problematic areas for the Orioles. Will Corey Patterson, Jeff Conine, and Kevin Millar help them? Probably not. Thusly, while Bedard will eventually blossom into an ace, his stats will suffer because of the mediocre defense behind him.

33. Dontrelle Willis, FLA – Here’s another case of a guy with a large increase in pitches from ’04 to ’05, this time on a very young arm, and that worries me a little bit. Willis proved me fairly wrong last season, however. With his improved control and increasing G/F ratio, he saw a precipitous drop in his slugging % allowed, and as such, I have two big questions in terms of Willis’ future. 1) How much can a guy with such a funky delivery in which he takes his eyes off the mitt for a period of time continue to improve upon his control? 2) How much of an impact will losing two of the best defensive infielders (Lowell and Castillo) at their respective positions affect his overall statistical output in ’06 given that he’s trending heavily towards a groundball style of pitching? While he was very good in ’05, I’d steer clear of the likely high prices that Willis will cost this season. His team’s offensive support, defense, and his, in my estimation, lesser likelihood for improvement make him a reach in ’06. (NOTE: I've altered Willis' ranking from my original Mastersball post. I never thought I was taking into account the lack of Wins and the complete downgrade in team defense enough, and I'm doing so now.)

34. Zach Duke, PIT – I was looking forward to ranting about how Zach Duke would be one of the most overpriced pitchers in baseball in 2006, and then I got around to checking out his peripherals. Despite his slightly above average strikeout rate and good but not great walk rate, Duke’s ERA looked like a spectacular case of fool’s gold at first glance. I simply couldn’t justify taking him seriously with such a low K/9. Well, ladies and gentlemen, I sit here and tell you that perhaps I was a bit of a fool on this one. While perusing The Hardball Times, I ranked all pitchers from last year in terms of FIP (my aforementioned favorite pitching stat), and Duke ranked 10th among all starters on this list last season. After further examination, it became apparent that Duke had an excellent G/F last year – one of the better ones in baseball. I don’t know enough about his minor league track record to suggest this high ratio is sustainable, but I do know that it’s an interesting factor. Obviously, if Duke can sustain a very high G/F rate, he will be a successful pitcher because he will limit his HR Allowed greatly. Unlike Felix Hernandez, Duke’s stuff doesn’t give me enough leeway to predict great results until we have a larger sample. But he’s an interesting pitcher, and I’d keep my eye on him at manageable prices.

35. Brad Penny, LAD – I’ve always loved this guy’s stuff. And now that his control is improving, my expectations are even higher. Expect him to get hurt at some point, but I wouldn’t be surprised by a mid-3’s ERA for Penny.

4th Tier: (Top 24 Round Talent)

36. Jason Schmidt, SF – A loss of velocity and a severe uptick in walks has me scared. Any Giants fans know of any reason for optimism here?

37. Noah Lowry, SF – He has some control issues, but it appears that Lowry will follow in the mold of Randy Wolf as a guy who has very low velocity as a lefty, but a great offspeed strikeout pitch that allows him to be successful given the proper ballpark with deep enough fences. As with most San Francisco pitchers, he’ll be hurt by the AARP defense that the team plays, but he’s not a bad under-the-radar choice for Mixed Leaguers. (editors note: Lowry hurt in first start).

38. Mike Mussina, NYY – He’s not washed up, dammit. His peripheral numbers are still pretty damn good. I said the same thing about Millwood last year, and look where that got us. Okay okay, Mussina has a much crappier defense behind him than Millwood did, so it’s not precisely the same point. Still, his strikeout rate, K/BB, and groundball rates are all quite good, so don’t forget about this guy on draft day.

39. Daniel Cabrera, BAL – I’m probably overly high on this guy. But again, one of my rules is: Never ever, under any circumstances, count out a guy with strikeout rate nearing 9 or more in the major leagues. Add an excellent groundball rate, and this guy is almost Felix Hernandez-like only without the control (thanks goes to Dave Cameron of USSM for that line). He’ll be hurt by mediocre fielding, but Cabrera is a stud in the making. Leo Mazzone may be in for a very fun season with Cabrera and Bedard if he plays his cards right – which he usually does.

40. Francisco Liriano, MIN – If I get one rookie starting pitcher this year, it will be Francisco Liriano – bar none, hands down. In terms of relative newbies to the league, there’s Felix Hernandez, then Liriano, then everyone else in the distance. Felix is the clear cream of the crop as possibly the most skillset-heavy pitcher to come along in the last few decades, but Liriano ain’t chopped liver. He’s got the entire package, minus the dominant frame, his strikeout rate may actually be better than Felix’s during their careers, and sometimes you can actually visualize he and Santana as one of the best strikeout southpaw duos to ever play on the same team. Then I remember that he’s had a lengthy injury history, and that he’s very young, and I have to temper my expectations. Still, the talent (including a very good G/F ratio) is definitely there. Now all he needs is a rotation spot… (Free Liriano!!!)

41. Josh Beckett, BOS – He’s moving to the AL. He’s going from a pretty large pitcher’s park to a classic hitter’s haven. And he’s going to have a much worse defense behind him. Oh, and did I mention he has never once thrown above 180 innings in a season? The injuries alone warrant allowing someone else to bid on his potential. The league, park, and defensive downgrades warrant staying far far away for Mixed Leaguers. It’s all relative for ALers, though.

42. Doug Davis, MIL – I like the strikeout rates. I don’t like the control. But if you want a guy who’s consistently underrated and who also is going to be on a pretty decent team this year (for Wins), go Davis. You’ll likely be able to get him later than many of the bigger names (M.Morris, G.Maddux, Bonderman, Od. or Ol. Perez, etc.), and he’ll probably outproduce them all.

43. Barry Zito, OAK – Zito is as Zito’s defense does. Since the A’s do have a good defense, expect his success to mostly continue (although defense is by no means guaranteed in the same way that a strikeout is, of course).

44. Mark Mulder, STL – Who would you rather have at this point – Mulder or Dan Haren? Me too. Sorry, Cards fans.

45. Scott Baker, MIN – Finding Baker higher than the Noah Lowry’s, Danny Haren’s, and Jeremy Bonderman’s of the world in terms of 2005 FIP was pretty astounding to me. Unfortunately for a guy like Francisco Liriano, Baker looks to be the real deal – a solid inning-eater with upside and the Twinkies’ first choice for their lone rotation opening at the outset of the season. With a good defense behind him, Baker could surprise a helluva lot of people with his final stats in ’06.

46. Freddy Garcia, CHW – Good groundball rates, not so good strikeout rates, and pretty decent control. He’s in a bad park, but has a good defense. Yep, you guessed it. I’m predicting a pretty good but not great year for Garcia. He’ll give you a good amount of decent innings, but not much more in that park.

47. Javier Vazquez, CHW – This one’s a toughie. Generally speaking, Vazquez has been a pretty severe flyball pitcher the last four years (although ’05 was the exception). Factor in that the White Sox stadium is one of the most homer happy parks in the big leagues, and that would generally spell bad news. However, the Sox have a great defense, and Javy generally has a very good K/BB, so he could still pull out a decent year. I’d wager that the park and the flyball tendencies win out here, but I’m by no means sure enough to bet the farm.

48. Greg Maddux, CHC – The decline continues, but man oh man he was falling from so far up that he’s still above average. Again, his strikeout rates will hurt fantasy owners, so don’t bid too high knowing that (and I’m sure you do know that by now about Maddux).

49. Odalis Perez, LAD – Bad Health vs. Talent. Bad Health seems to be winning over and over. Again, don’t wager too much on a fully healthy year, but if you get him for cheap, O-D is largely underrated. His FIP was over a half-run lower than his actual ERA, so don’t you underrate him, too.

50. Matt Morris, SF – He’s essentially a control/groundball pitcher now as opposed to the strikeout/groundball pitcher he used to be. On the right team, it could serve him well. I have my doubts about that crappy old San Fran defense doing him much justice, though. His new park will help, although St. Louis was no hitter’s paradise. I think the biggest worry spot is that his second half numbers and velocity were both atrocious. He was tossing in the high 80’s for much of the latter half of ’05, and people were knocking him all over the place. If you can wait to see him in the late Spring Training games to check out his radar gun numbers, do so. If not, don’t risk too much on him.

51. Matt Clement, BOS – A situation where his FIP was a good half a run lower than his ERA, but we probably shouldn’t expect much more considering Boston’s fielders aren’t so hot. He’ll be better with Lowell and whomever at short (yes, Renteria is a subpar fielder), but it’s almost what you see is what you get at this point with Clement.

52. Oliver Perez, PIT – Unlike last year, he pitched in an off-season league allowing him to perhaps throw though some rust. This was a routine he had always partaken in up until the off-season after his breakout season when the Pirates got worried about his arm. The ensuing rust that he had when he came into Spring Training and the regular season was too much to overcome. And it’s not just his walks, which is simply an indicator of a more deeply rooted problem. It’s his pitching motion. It’s so jerky that he needs the proper amount of reps to keep it in tune. Even though he didn’t have good results during the off-season, I think it’s the reps that were the most important facet. Don’t spend much, but don’t forget about the guy just because of one misguided season.

53. Scott Olsen, FLA – It wouldn’t surprise me if Olsen outperforms every young pitcher not named Liriano in the next two years. He may be the most under-the-radar top-flight pitching prospect in a while, and you should use that to your advantage. This is one of those times where scouting comes in supremely handy – he’s got fantastic stuff, and he’s going to be a big strikeout threat with three Major League-ready pitches in his fastball, slider, and change (all with which he can utilize as a strikeout pitch). Yes, he’s on a crappy team, so his numbers will likely be lower than we want in ’06. But keeper leagues should keep nab him.

54. Anthony Reyes, STL – The ability is there for this kid to dominate for years to come. The arm health might not be, though. If you want to gamble on a young pitcher, though, this is one of the three or four that I’d do it on along with Felix, Liriano, and Olsen. Reyes is a flyball pitcher, so look early on for how the new St. Louis park leans in terms of Pitcher vs. Hitter park factors. (Editor's Note: Reyes was told to learn a new pitch -- the two-seamer -- in Spring Training, and he was largely unsuccessful in doing so. If the Cards are really intent on him throwing the pitch in the long run, it could be a while before Reyes makes it back to St. Louis).

55. David Wells, BOS – Always underrated, and still as good a bet as any pitcher in baseball to throw 175+ innings of good, hard-nosed baseball. And if he lands on a team with above average fielding (especially one in the NL), his numbers would be well worthwhile for just about any fantasy owner. Also, if your league uses K/BB, Wells DOMINATES.

Speculative Picks -- Pitchers that should turn a profit (In no particular order)

Esteban Loaiza, OAK – Were his numbers league and park aided? Sure they were. But Loaiza has become a pretty consistent #3 rotation starter all things considered. Beane got him for a bargain, and if you can get him and his consistency for that same bargain, you should do so. Expect a moderate decrease in strikeouts as well as an increase in ERA relative to league and park, but his new and more effective defense should help dampen the effects. Then again, knowing that I’m recommending him, he’ll likely have the worst pitching season in recent history. My predictions of him in the last three years have been precisely the opposite of what he’s done on the field. I feel like the Sports Guy and the Panthers here, dammit.

Kevin Brown, FA – Don’t be afraid to spend a buck on this guy if he signs somewhere with a good defense behind him. He could give you 100 innings of very decent baseball statistics. His FIP last year was actually quite good (i.e. the Yankees suck ass defensively). (editors note: Kevin Brown is without a job).

Tom Glavine, NYM – Glavine, similar to Schilling, had a better FIP than C.Zambrano, Big Ugly, and Millwood last year. That’s damned astonishing. Way to go, old man! Unfortunately, unlike Schilling’s success, Glavine’s good numbers come without the strikeouts.

Cory Lidle, PHI – Lidle came in just under Carlos Zambrano in FIP last season. I don’t know what shocked me more – that he almost beat Zambrano or that Lidle could actually be doing rather well in Citizen’s Bank Park if he had a decent defense behind him. With his continuingly improving control and high groundball rates, Lidle is a nice little sleeper in deeper leagues. Still, there’s not much room for error in that park.

Josh Rupe, TEX – He may not be a superstar rookie name, but Rupe’s very high G/F throughout the minors and majors in 2005 warrant a second look. Couple that with him playing in tough hitter’s parks all throughout the season, and he’s lucky he didn’t come out psychologically scarred, by God. With a low 90’s fastball, a pretty good slider, and excellent G/F rates, Rupe’s a nice end game flier in deep leagues. If that groundball ratio is sustainable -- and from the look of his minor league rates, it should be -- he could be worthwhile in AL leagues for sure.

Andrew Sisco, KC – What the hell were the Cubs thinking? Sisco may get a chance to start, and his good velocity and stuff should serve him well if his body can stand up to the workload increase. Buy him for his good MR ratios, but he’s a starter sleeper for sure.

Mike Hampton, ATL – His groundball rates make him useful, but his health pretty much nullifies that usefulness altogether. There are worse choices, absolutely. But for a guy who may not give you many innings and who definitely won’t give you any K’s (and a mediocre WHIP to boot), you should probably spend your money elsewhere. (Editors note: Hampton is out the year from Tommy John Surgery)

Jon Rauch, WAS – If he’s starting in RFK, you’ll want this guy on your team. In fact, that statement is going to become a mantra on this list, so be prepared.

Paul Byrd, CLE – Increased control for Byrd has done wonders for my impression of him. He’s moving to a forgiving park for flyballers, too. An astute pick-up for Cleveland, and I’ll readily admit that I was absolutely wrong about Byrd, although as per usual, he won’t give you many K’s. Watch out for his health, too, as he’s usually good for a DL stint or three.

Jake Westbrook, CLE – He won’t give you many strikeouts, so his fantasy value isn’t nearly what his real value is to the Indians. He’s improving bit by bit, though, and his FIP was nearly a half a run lower than his actual ERA in 2005, so don’t let others get him for too cheap.

Denny Bautista, KC – A lot of talent, and the only real fear I have with him is durability. His FIP was over a run and a half lower than his actual ERA last year, so he was the victim of some serious bad luck. Get this guy late in deeper leagues and watch him blossom as long as he’s healthy.

Aaron Heilman, NYM – The classic case of a pitcher who is much more successful as a reliever than as a starter, Heilman had excellent stats from the bullpen in ’05. Also worth noting is that he’s a very groundball oriented pitcher. I’d definitely pay the going rate for Heilman as a good MR and hope he gets one last chance to start in the meantime. He’ll give you Scot Shields-type innings, and if he gets hot as a replacement starter, you’ll have yourself an excellent value.

Derek Lowe, LAD – I’d much rather have previous Dodger shortstop Cesar Izturis behind him than Furcal. Much will depend on who plays third and second in terms of Lowe’s success, too, because he is so reliant on the sinker and his groundballs. There are worse fantasy pitchers, but he doesn’t have much upside unless he gets a great infield behind him.

Jerome Williams, SF – He had good peripherals in San Fran, but it all went to hell when he got dealt to the Cubs. He’s obviously got some talent, though, and the Cubbies will likely need him pretty regularly in the starting rotation given Prior’s and Wood’s injury histories.

Kameron Loe, TEX – Perhaps the next Derek Lowe, Loe may already have the #5 spot in the rotation locked down. The Rangers have a spotty infield defense – even without Alfonso Soriano – so don’t expect the world. But do expect a pleasant surprise in deep AL leagues.

Brett Tomko, LAD – I wouldn’t mind taking a flier on Tomko in deeper leagues now that he’s in Dodger Stadium – where doubles and triples go to DIE. In fact, I expect a low 4’s ERA with the potential to be in the 3’s.

Jon Lieber, PHI – You won’t get any more than his ’05 numbers in all likelihood, but he’s a decent starter for fantasy purposes. His rates are all favorable.

Carlos Silva, MIN – He overperformed his FIP last year, but hey, the Twins have a good defense, so it’s not wholly unexpected. He’ll have to continue to keep his control at fantastic levels if he keeps not striking anyone out, but Silva’s not a bad play in deep leagues. Nice call by Jason Grey last year for sure.

Victor Zambrano, NYM – Not a bad speculative pick in deeper leagues. Pitchers always get hurt, so the Mets will likely have to use him as a starter at some point. His walks may be ugly, but he gets around them a bit with his high G/F rate. He’s no Scott Kazmir, but Zambrano has his uses (make sure you have a WHIP-tastic team, though).

Brad Halsey, OAK – Not a horrible bet in deeper NL leagues. I like his control, although he’s in a rough park for a flyball pitcher. (Editors Note: Traded to Oakland)

Ervin Santana, ANA – He’ll improve his K-rate and his walk rate in all likelihood. But it’s the low G/F that worries me. He’s going to give up his fair share of HR’s, so temper your ERA expectations. His stuff is electric, but don’t forget he’s had enough injuries in the last few years to set up his doctor for life.

Kyle Davies, ATL – I like Davies. He’s got pretty good stuff and a good head on him. There’s a reason the Braves wouldn’t deal him for help last year or this off-season. And the Braves know their **** when it comes to pitchers for the most part.

Jon Papelbon, BOS – He may turn out to be a reliever (and there’s no way he’s got a chance at a rotation spot until two or more Sox pitchers go down), but he’s got two good pitches, a solid make-up, and a very good strikeout rate – especially for his age. He’s a flyball pitcher, though, so the Red Sox’ not-so-hot outfield defense will hurt him. Still, he’s definitely worth a look in deeper leagues.

Brad Radke, MIN – Radke has fantastic control, but he relies on a good outfield defense to keep his ERA down. Without Jaque Jones in right, I’m a bit skeptical the Twins will be as good as they used to be. Still, he’s a reliable innings eater, so if you get a good price on him…

Zach Greinke, KC – So young, so talented, and so misunderstood. He underperformed his FIP by a run and a half, so please refrain from your expletives about this guy until he’s been given a larger sample, ay. He will continue to improve his control, and he’ll likely up his strikeout rate a bit. I’m betting you can get him at a decent discount, so don’t be afraid to pay for a 4.25 ERA and a decent WHIP to boot. (Editor's note: Greinke will spend April and May on a psychiatrists couch instead of a pitching mound)

Kyle Lohse, MIN – I think I was overly moved by the game in which he threw, inning for inning, almost as good a game as Felix Hernandez in what turned out to be a great pitcher’s duel late last season. Lohse has very biting stuff, and he’s a decent control pitcher, too. Not a bad speculative bet in deep leagues.

Casey Fossum, TB – He’ll probably never hold up for an entire season, but I’m willing to be you’ll get a pretty good first half out of him. Then you can deal him off to some yutz who doesn’t know what’s going on. Go on. Make it happen!

Vicente Padilla, TEX – Probably not a good gamble in Texas, although at least he’s a groundball pitcher. You could do worse in AL leagues I suppose.

Woody Williams, SD – With Mike Cameron around, Williams could experience a vast turnaround from 2005. If he stays in San Diego, he’s a solid candidate to speculate upon.

Dave Bush, MIL – A steal for the Brewers. I like Bush in the NL. He’s already got very good control, and an uptick in K’s with the league switch should be good for him. A nice speculative pick in deeper leagues.

Sidney Ponson, STL – He actually may be a decent bet given St. Louis’ infield defense along with his groundball proclivities. Give him a try as an end gamer, and I’ll bet you’ll be pleasantly surprised by the results.

Runelvyz Hernandez, KC – Pretty good stuff, but he really needs to start showing some strikeout ability in the big leagues. I like him more as an MR, actually.

Edwin Jackson, TB – Always had the stuff, and maybe a fresh start will kick him into gear. The Rays did well to get his arm into their system.

Jason Johnson, CLE – Another astute pick-up by Mark Shapiro and the Tribe, Johnson has a decent sized shot at being as good or better than the Washburns of the world this year with his groundball pitching style and Cleveland’s park and defense, and he’ll likely come at a fraction of the price. He’s a great value pick in deep leagues. Don't be a Bavasi -- buy similar talent at much cheaper prices.

Sergio Mitre, FLA– I like his G/F ratio. I like it a lot. He could be a decent flier in deep leagues.

Ramon Ortiz, WAS – Welcome to RFK, Mr. Ortiz. Talk about pitchers that could do a complete 180 for the upcoming season! His severe flyball tendencies couldn’t be any more suited for his new stadium. This was one of Bowden’s few astute pick-ups.

Tony Armas, WAS – Just draft the whole damn RFK pitching staff, okay?

Mike Maroth, DET – He improved his strikeout rate a bit, improved his walk rate a bit, and might be a little undervalued in deep leagues considering his ERA was a bit inflated last year. That said, remember this is the Tiger’s defense, so don’t go expecting ERA’s in the 3’s, you crazy kids.

Brian Lawrence, SD – Pretty decent groundball pitcher without many K’s. And now I've been clued in that he's in DC -- well that's a horse of a whole 'notha color, baby. Sign me up for Brian Lawrence in '06! (Editor's note: Torn Labrum)

Don’t Drink the Water -- Pitchers That Will Lose You Money

Chien-Ming Wang, NYY – Count me out on this one. The Yanks’ defense sucks, and that’s about all Wang will utilize when he pitches since he can’t strike anyone out. Yikes.

Ryan Madson, PHI – Being a groundball pitcher favors him, but I do wonder what sort of drop-off in strikeouts he will experience if he becomes a starter. The more strikeouts he loses, the higher his ERA will climb. And unlike most other MR’s that are considered excellent, Madson doesn’t have a spectacular K-rate or an excellent fastball. Factor in Citizen’s Bank Park and I’d give him a decent sized thumbs down unless you’re paying the going rate for a decent MR. Give him a year to get his feet wet starting (if he inherits a role) before you roll any dice on him.

Kevin Millwood, TEX – Here’s a guy who went from undervalued about 2/3’s into the 2005 season, to overvalued in the blink of eight starts. He’s got a history of lingering arm ailments, and now he’s heading to Texas. Unless his improved G/F rate of ’05 is not only maintainable, but vastly improved (and it probably isn’t given that Cleveland’s stadium does funny things to pitchers in terms of grounders), he’s a waving red flag in the Texas twisters for the upcoming season.

Jon Garland, CHW – He improved his control and the defense behind him was spectacular. I’m guessing one of those two will come up less than stellar in ’06, so let someone else overpay for Garland. K.Rogers – He won’t contribute meaningfully in strikeouts, and his ERA and WHIP are more than likely to go up up up this year. Add in a crappy defense behind him and Rogers should be expected to drop off fantasy radars except in deep leagues this year.

Adam Eaton, TEX – Mr. Eaton goes to Arlington. Mr. Eaton’s value goes to hell. Welcome to hell, Mr. Eaton. (Editor's Note: and now welcome to the DL for 4 months)

Mark Redman, KC – He’s on a crappy team with a crappy defense, and now he’s in the AL where he’s been blown to smithereens in the past. You do the math. Unless you’re in a deep AL league, steer the hell away from this guy.

Gustavo Chacin, TOR – That Blue Jay defense is going to be pretty mediocre this year, and that’s going to directly affect the likes of the defense reliant Chacin. I honestly think his funky delivery is the main reason for his success, too, so look for Chacin’s number to rise rise rise this year as the league adjusts.

Livan Hernandez, WAS – Looks like the abuse finally got to him. His rising walk rate continued to inflate, and his strikeout rate plummeted as well. There’s not much reason to like him other than RFK, and honestly, you can find cheaper pitchers who may do just as well for you (Rauch, anyone?) Unless you get a steal of a deal, just buy up the cheaper RFK pitchers.

Tim Hudson, ATL – His WHIP continues to increase, his K/BB continues to decrease, and Hudson’s strikeout rate is too low to compensate. He’s essentially a glorified Derek Lowe now, and Edgar Renteria is not going to help at all.

Jorge Sosa, ATL – Without Mazzone, I don’t have much faith in Sosa finding much success.

Jarrod Washburn, SEA – Fire Bill Bavasi? Washburn was hella lucky last year as his flyball rates warranted him to give up an awful lot more homers than he did. Generally, this is considered a non-repeatable skill (the number of flyballs that turn into homeruns is essentially a constant rate, with some variance given the small sample size of 35 starts in a year). Thusly, you can expect Washburn to turn into one of the most expensive #3-#4 starters of all-time. Yay. Let someone else overpay since they’ll be expecting his stats to improve with the move to Safeco. Um, no. Ain’t gonna happen.

Jamie Moyer, SEA – Another defense reliant pitcher, Moyer happens to be in a great park for such. However, without Mike Cameron in center, it’s pretty obvious that Moyer is not a safe bet for an ERA anywhere near the 3’s. The M’s outfield defense isn’t nearly as good as it used to be, so don’t bank on Moyer for anything more than a repeat or worse of his ’05 season.

Wade Miller, CHC – Miller’s arm troubles are a big reason why you shouldn’t wager much at all on him in ’06. Unless you hear glowing scouting reports in Spring Training, he’s not worth anything other than a late round flier in deep leagues right now.

Joe Blanton, OAK – His FIP was a solid run higher than his ERA last year. Blanton was lucky, so don’t you be gamblin’ good money on him repeating last year’s performance.

Bronson Arroyo, CIN – Boy, all his peripherals sure did go south last year, huh. I’m sure the Red Sox know more than I do about him, and that’s why they gave him the longterm deal. But he’s a flyball pitcher in a bad park for pitchers, and he’s not even assured of a starting spot at the moment. Also, his K-rate is pretty damned bad. I can’t be really optimistic for Arroyo unless some new information about his skillset comes to light.

Joel Pineiro, SEA – He had one lucky year, and we all thought he would eventually make the leap. We were so blind (hell, I was duped pretty damn good, lol). Pineiro’s a guy who will need good outfielders to help him out, and the M’s don’t really have anyone out there beyond Ichiro who’s an above average fielder. Plus he’s got an injury history and a mental make-up that make me cry myself to sleep at night. He’s not Gil Meche bad, but you can do better. Let the sucker who still believes he’ll break out pay an inflated price, and you spend your money somewhere else, k?

Jeff Suppan, STL – I’m more than a little leery of Suppan. His FIP was a run higher than his actual ERA, so that’s the biggest reason. I know the Cards have a good defense, but defense isn’t as reliable as a good strikeout rate. Don’t pay for anything lower than a 4.00 ERA. Perhaps it’s irrational, but I haven’t trusted the guy since Tim McCarver called him an “ace” a couple of years ago in the Series. F*:% you, Tim McCarver!

Brandon Claussen, CIN – Pretty heavy proclivity towards the flyball plus Cincy’s park equals an inflated ERA for Claussen. If he gets dealt anywhere else, though, keep an eye on him.

Al Leiter, NYY – Next.

Chris Capuano, MIL-- Fool's gold, ladies and gentlemen. He's going to start giving up a lot more homers in '06, and his ERA is going to go up up up.

Shawn Chacon, NYY – So lucky last year that I can’t even begin to explain him. He defied the odds once. He won’t do it again.

Kris Benson, BAL – Lucky as hell last year, and it won’t happen again now that he’s left Shea and he’s got the middling Orioles defense behind him. Who will Anna Benson sleep with first? Millar or Javy Lopez? E.Yan – There are much safer bets out there.

Kerry Wood, CHC – He’ll be too expensive for you to get a good enough price to nab him. You go to hell, Dusty Baker. You go to hell and you die.

Jeff Francis, COL – Nope. Not gonna happen. He’s a flyball pitcher in Coors, guys. Don’t even frakkin’ think about it.

Brandon Backe, HOU – Probably not worth your time unless your only other options are Shawn Estes or Russ Ortiz.

Shawn Estes, SD – See: B.Backe

Nate Robertson, DET – Good groundball pitcher playing with an atrocious defense overall. Polanco will help over the course of a full season, but not enough.

Steve Trachsel, NYM – Is he still playing?

Orlando Hernandez, ARI– His arm won’t last. Don’t you forget that.

Carl Pavano, NYY – Until he gets a good defense behind him, Pavano is going to produce some uncomely results.

Jason Marquis, STL – He’s not going to turn the corner. Not now. Not ever.

Randy Wolf, PHI– His flyballs just won’t stay in the park at Citizen’s Bank. Unless he gets traded, consider him fantasy useless.

Juan Dominguez, OAK – He outperformed his FIP by .75 runs. I think he’s got the stuff to eventually get a full season’s worth of low 4 ERA’s, but not in ’06.

Kip Wells, PIT – An innings guy at this point, and not much else. His stuff has declined, and his head is out in the middle of the Milky Way at this point. (Editors Note: Out most of the year)

Dave Williams, CIN – Not a good bet in any league.

Joe Mays, KC – Mays sucks. Way to go, Royals!

Ryan Franklin, PHI – If there was a way to wager on who would be perhaps the worst pitcher in baseball in 2006 in Vegas, I’d be going double down on Ryan Franklin. One of the most flyball prone pitchers was just given the keys to the starting rotation in Citizen’s Bank Park? Seriously?

Gil Meche, SEA – He sucks. I went through a lot of therapy to be able to finally say that. So there you have it.

Scott Elarton, KC – Elarton sucks, too. Way to go, Royals!!

Ted Lilly, TOR – Sometimes, psychology really does mean something.

Eric Milton, CIN – He sucks!

Jaret Wright, NYY – Too bad the Yanks couldn’t get Mazzone, ay Yanks fans?

Russ Ortiz, ARI – He’s never had good control, but at least he’s always struck out enough and had a good enough defense behind him to compensate in the past. That streak ended in 2005, when he had an abysmal strikeout rate as well as a below average defense behind him. Orlando Hudson will help, but Ortiz isn’t a good bet in any format in all honesty. I bet D-backs fans are loving that contract right about now.

Gavin Floyd, PHI – He’s probably not going to succeed in that park. He may have a few decent seasons down the road, but I think we’re likely to see the Phils trade him by the trading deadline in ’06 or ’07 for other help. Perhaps if he becomes an MR, he may find more success, but still, I wouldn’t bother with him this season.

Aaron Small, NYY – It’s beyond anything resembling “likely” that Small will have an as good or better season than he did in 2005. His peripherals are all, well, they’re small. Draft accordingly.

Who the Hell Knows

Jose Contreras, CHW – Your guess is as good as mine.

Jeff Weaver, ANA – Where oh where will Jeff Weaver land? Hopefully someplace that’s forgiving of flyballs. (Editor's note: Weaver signed with the Angels)

Prospect Alley

Adam Miller, CLE – There’s a reason everyone mentioned Miller in the same breath as Felix Hernandez last year. I’ve chatted with scouts who’ve absolutely raved about his combination of velocity, pitch selection, and mound make-up. One of them, being an accomplished fantasy pal, actually said to take him before any hitters in keeper leagues if you couldn’t get Felix. We’ll have to see how he bounces back from his injuries, but make no mistake – this is the Indians’ best pitcher in their entire system.

Jeremy Sowers, CLE – He’s a control and groundball artist, so he’ll fit perfectly into Jacob’s Field. The Tribe have deemed him untouchable in trade talks, so they may give him a chance in ’06. Sowers has a keeper league bullseye tattooed on his forehead, and he’ll likely be one of the cheapest prospects you could pick up because he’s not a sexy strikeout pitcher. He’s more Zach Duke than anything else.

Chad Billingsley, LAD – I know so little about him, although I’ve heard raves from people I trust. You guys feel free to chime in with what you know. He was literally the last guy on my list, and I’m feeling lazy, muwhahaha.

Yusmeiro Petit, FLA – I was anxious to see Petit in Shea Stadium with a good defense behind him. I’m far less excited to see him dealt to a crappy team in a bit less of a pitcher’s park with what is likely to be a bad defense behind him. His stuff is strangely mediocre (he throws his fastball around 85-87 mph), but he has a kink in his delivery that hides the ball until the very last second. It’s anyone’s guess as to whether Major League hitters will find a way to figure him out, but so far he’s been extraordinary in the minors, and I think that’s an absolutely fascinating storyline. He’s maybe the most intriguing prospect to come along for stat gurus, and he’s probably the very definition of scouting versus stats in terms of what happens when the two sides disagree. I think I just like the fact that nobody really has a bloody idea as to how effective Petit’s kinky delivery will be in the big leagues. Prognostication? Flip a coin ;)

Anibel Sanchez, FLA – I think the Red Sox are going to seriously regret giving up Sanchez as opposed to Papelbon or Lester or Edgar Martinez in about two years or so. I really do. The Marlins may have the best rotation in the majors in that time, too – good God they’ve got a ton of great young arms.

Cole Hamels, PHI – Apparently he’s a headcase. There’s not much room for that in Citizen’s Bank Park. Avoid unless you get him really cheap – and generally, name value alone raises the price on Hamels above the cheap threshold.

Adam Wainwright, STL – Perhaps he’ll find a spot in the bullpen, but I don’t see the Cards using him in the rotation unless a lot of things go wrong. There’s a reason Atlanta let him go, and the reason is that he was never a spectacular prospect in the first place. Perhaps another year in the minors with some occasional MR time in the big leagues will be best for him after his surgery in ’04, so don’t bother unless you’re in an extraordinarily deep league with a hefty-sized reserve roster.

Justin Verlander, DET – He has damned awesome stuff, but the health reports last year were discouraging. Still, he could be a sleeper amongst the young pitchers this year as most will take the Liriano’s, McCarthy’s, and Cain’s ahead of him and he’s got better stuff than all of them. He’s likely a year away, but you may get a quality second half out of him in deeper leagues. (Editors note: Verlander won a rotation spot in Spring Training)

John Maine, NYM – He’s always had the mound make-up of a #2 or #3 starter, but his stuff is more in the range of #4 guy (he’s a flyball pitcher with decent command for the most part). But guess what? In Shea, that makes him a useful fantasy starter, especially in deeper leagues.

Jon Lester, BOS – If the Red Sox’ rotation wasn’t so damned full, you’d think he’d get a chance at some point. But unless David Wells gets dealt, Jon Papelbon plus another rotation member gets hurt, and the Sox turn away from Abe Alvarez as their spot starter from their system, then Lester may have some value in ’06. Then again, one of the things I’m going to be concentrating on more this year and in the future is how an organization sees a pitcher versus my own perception of his value. The BoSox brass love Lester, plain and simple. They gave up a pitcher with superb stats in Anibal Sanchez, and that’s a pretty big deal considering their GM is a very stat-friendly personnel guy. It’s quite possible that they will give Lester the extended look before anyone just because they’re so high on him. Never discount an organization’s fetishistic displays of personnel transaction management.

Dustin McGowan, TOR – Here’s a supremely talented pitcher who will only get better as he gets further and further away from his Tommy John surgery. He reminds me of a young Mussina with his combination of good control, good groundball rates, and good strikeout rates. He’s not dominant in any of those areas, but he does excel at all of them. That makes him quite useful in the long run.

Matt Cain, SF – Talent is there, but he may be a year away. He’s another of the severe flyball rookies (Reyes and McCarthy, too), but his park will help him out. His geriatric outfield won’t, though. Maybe you’ll want to wait for Brian Sabean to resign before you go spending too much cash on Cain. Then again, wait that long, and Cain will likely be dealt along with Merkin Valdez and cash for Paul Byrd and a smirk from Shapiro. And yes, that’s SteveB you see on the ledge over there.

Brandon McCarthy, CHW – Probably the most overrated of all the young starters, although it’s not his fault. His minor league numbers have been pretty awesome up until last year, when his severe flyball tendencies caught up with him. Transpose those tendencies to the ChiSox homer happy land, and you have a recipe for initial disaster. McCarthy will eventually be a good starter, especially once he vamps up his strikeout and walk rates near what they’ve been in the minors. But he’s likely to be one of the most overrated youngsters in fantasy baseball in 2006.

Mariners Minors

Jesse Foppert, SEA – His velocity is allegedly creeping back up. I think we’ll see him in the second half of ’06 when he starts to show some semblance of control again. My favorite thing about Foppert was that he was still striking out a ton of Major League hitters back in 2003 even after his arm was gone and his velocity decreased. He’s a project, but worth a reserve in a deep league.

Bobby Livingston, SEA – He’s a control guy, and he’s not an organizational favorite (they value velocity and stuff moreso than results, mound make-up, and control in their prospects), but Livingston could have a fantasy impact in deep leagues during the second half of ’06. The likely projected record for the M’s barring a complete Beltre turnaround in 2006 is around .500 (thank you, USS Mariner), so the Mariners will yet again have to give their young players in the minors a chance to show them their skillset in August and September. Also, considering the track record of the M’s starters’ health, Livingston could be promoted due to injuries. Hell, he’s better than Gil Meche already…

Marcos Carvajal, TB – Wow. Let’s just say I like this deal for the M’s (for Yorvit Torrealba! YORVIT TORREALBA!!!) Rockies fans must be beside themselves – and in fact, I know they are because I read a bunch of their message boards, lol. Anyway, Carvajal’s body really isn’t built to start, so he’ll likely be slotted into the pen. He could easily be the closer in a year or so with a vicious mid-90’s fastball and a great slider. Unlike Rafael Soriano, though, he doesn’t have the stamina to start (or even a snowball’s chance in hell of throwing his change-up for anything other than a HR Allowed). (Editor's note: Carvajal was just traded to the Devil Rays.)

Yorman Bazardo, SEA – Very good fastball and a decent sinker go along with a change that should develop into a solid pitch and a breaking ball that sometimes doesn’t break. The M’s will probably call him up before they do Livingston, but I’d be surprised if he contributed much in ’06. He needs another year of development time on his pitch repertoire.

Scott Rudicil recently finished college with a Media Communications degree via the Van Wilder plan (seven years, baby!) He has surfed, written, and said equal parts dumb and smart things amongst the fantasy baseball community under the guise of "Bodhizefa" for three years and running. And yes, he really does think that Felix Hernandez has the best skillset of any pitcher in the major leagues in the last 35 years (dumb or smart... you be the judge). Please e-mail him with any questions, comments, or sanity tests at Bodhizefa@rotochamps.com.