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Chris Young Ain't Just a Pitcher in Petco
Posted on Thursday, April 27 @ 11:22:00 PDT by bohizefa
Bodhizefa BreezeAlmost every hitter has a weakness – a chink in the armor that detracts in some way, shape or form from the player’s fantasy value. In Chris Young’s case, his biggest weakness of all may be his own name. Sure, he swings and misses a lot. And yeah, this will sometimes translate into lower batting averages. But Young’s biggest battle over the next few years will be to convince owners that he’s not just a pitcher in Petco Park.

Chris Young the outfielder is an interesting case. Dealt to the Arizona Diamondbacks in the off-season trade that sent Javier Vazquez to the Pale Hose, he’s a fantastic athlete and an all-around talent that somehow gets lost in almost every fantasy prospect analysis. Most fantasy owners are always on the lookout for the next big thing. But there’s only one Delmon Young to go around, gentlemen. There are a slew of hitters vying for the #2 spot after Young, the consensus #1 fantasy prospect in baseball (a consensus

I fully endorse after watching him swipe a boatload of bags in nearby Durham this year – I don’t care what Baseball America says… Young is going to steal 12+ bags a year unless he packs on an awful lot of weight. He has great instincts, a la Gary Sheffield.) And as is all the Baseball Prospectus rage, every player is compared to another.

Howie Kendrick is the next Marcus Giles, except with a better average and not many steals (which really means he’s not Giles at all, but hey, this is a comp being made by baseball guys smarter than me). Brandon Wood is Cal Ripken, only with a lot more power (which is to say he’s not really Ripken at all). The list goes on. Pie is Patterson. Stewart is Chavez. And Drew is, um, well, Drew-ish.

All of this is a big way of saying analysts generally love using comparables and the fantasy baseball public generally loves reading about them. The big problem is when the comparable pegs a player to be something far less valuable than the player actually projects to become, and that’s where Chris Young enters the fray.

The player most often associated with Young in the “Comparables Game” is San Diego center fielder Mike Cameron, an outlandish comp that I will attempt to debunk. I do want to go on the record as saying I love Mike Cameron, so this isn’t a knock on him in any capacity. Watching Cameron corral hard-hit flyball after hard-hit flyball in Safeco at the outset of this millennium and also provide a dashing 20/20 threat for fantasy owners was fantastic on numerous levels for me as a Mariners fan, and I could go on for hours about how Cameron was greatly underrated in his time both in real baseball as well as in fantasy circles. Luckily, blogger Aaron Gleeman did it for me a long while ago. However, this column isn’t about how underrated Cameron was. It’s about how underrated Young is. And that underratedness on both accounts is really the only comparable anyone should be making, because Chris Young is no Mike Cameron. He’s better, and he has the potential to be a lot better.

Apparently, the problem with Young is that no one has ever seen him as very “projectable” until recently. He was drafted in the 16th round of the amateur draft, mostly because he was extremely skinny and thought to not have long-term power prowess because of it. He struggled in his first attempt at professional ball after the draft, but that would be the first and last time he would have any problems. In 2003, Young posted an .836 OPS and .479 SLG% in rookie ball while stealing almost one base per ten at bats. Young ended the 2004 season as Baseball America’s #6 ranked prospect within the Chicago White Sox’ organization, behind Brian Anderson, Ryan Sweeney, Josh Fields, and a couple of pitchers, after crushing his way to an .870 OPS, a .505 SLG% and 31 steals in 465 AB’s. The power was building, the speed was staying, and Young could take a walk, too. And even though he was younger than Brian Anderson by a year and a half and posting better all-around numbers wherever he played (as well as having better defense, at least according to scouts), Young was treated with kid gloves in an organization famous for rapidly speeding its top prospects up to the big leagues.

In other words, Anderson was on the fast track to the White Sox and Young wasn’t seen as a viable long-term solution. And at the end of 2004, Baseball America agreed with White Sox GM Kenny Williams on the matter. Perhaps the White Sox thought Anderson, who had attended the University of Arizona, was better prepared via his collegiate experience to be shuttled up the path to the big leagues while Young, who never attended college, needed to be groomed. Or perhaps the White Sox’ scouts never got a good glimpse of Young and his potential.

In any case, 2005 saw Young blow past Anderson in the eyes of Baseball America. Baseball Prospectus started taking note of Young’s numbers as well. In fact, the only body of analysts who still saw Young as a lesser prospect than Anderson after the 2005 campaign was the White Sox, who were still pushing Anderson up the chain all the way to the big leagues. And that left Chris Young without a Major League home. One could argue that the White Sox made a mistake in then dealing Young to the Diamondbacks. After all, Young posted a .922 OPS with a .545 SLG% in AA at the age of 22, and that in the same place that Anderson produced a .346/.416/.762 line at the same age while being rapidly shuttled upward. But perhaps in dealing Young, the White Sox did us all a big favor. Since they have a poor recent history of rushing minor leaguers, perhaps it’s for the best that Kenny Williams and the gang took to having a mancrush on Brian Anderson all the way back in 2003 and then subsequently never let go. In the meantime, they allowed Young to develop into one of the best outfield prospects in the game at his own pace, and now he’s on a team that desperately needs youth in an AARP-filled outfield.

It must be noted that I’ve been largely using Slugging Percentages along with OPS in notating Young’s conquests. The reason for that is very simple. Mat Olkin, a sabermetric guru now with the Seattle Mariners organization, performed an excellent study on projecting future major league power via minor league stats. His findings concluded that the two most important categories for prognosticating major league power were age and slugging percentage – two categories that Young has excelled at thus far. This is an issue we will revisit after a few other points are made.

Previously, I mentioned the “Comparables Game” and Mike Cameron as perhaps not the best choice with which to comp Young. Now I want to investigate that game further. One of the reasons most analysts lump Cammy and Young together is because they have similar builds and they also strike out a lot. The body type similarities are true. Baseball Prospectus likes to comp similarly sized players together because, often, size itself is an indicator of power hitting ability. You see mammoths like Adam Dunn, Travis Hafner, and David Ortiz, and it’s no wonder they’re hitting so many homeruns – they’re strong as hell because they’re big as hell. Heck, BP had Ortiz as one of Hafner’s top comps just as the two of them exploded into being two of the top ten hitters in baseball. Clearly, the comp game has merit.

However, where it loses ground is with hitters who display skills less often found in MLB. Like Ichiro or Alfonso Soriano. Or like Chris Young. Young’s minor league track record thus far has seen him post a .264/.357/.492 line with a rather good .849 OPS but also a lackluster 72% contact rate (80% or higher is considered “good,” give or take) – all of this while being relatively young for his leagues. Cameron’s minor league line, on the other hand, was a meek .258 BA with a .424 SLG%. Here’s where the comparisons between the two reach a distinct and very dead end. Cameron wasn’t much of a power hitter in the minors until age 23 upon repeating AA, while Young has gotten more powerful at every stop of the way, including his peak at the age of 21 in AA, a full year and a half sooner than Cameron. As alluded to earlier, the younger the hitter has success at each level, the more power potential he has in the majors. And thusly, these two players aren’t very similar at all in terms of power hitting, and thusly, their fantasy value.

So if that’s the case, the real question is with whom Young does compare. The answer is very interesting and also a bit more complex than at first glance. Firstly, the two closest high-end comparables I found in my survey were Derrek Lee (.291 BA, .484 SLG, and 74% contact rate) and former Reds great Eric Davis (.289 BA, .514 SLG, and 73% contact rate). On the other end of the spectrum, I found low-end comps to be Preston Wilson (.258 BA, .472 SLG, and 72% contact rate) and Ruben Rivera (.261 BA, .476 SLG, and 71% contact rate). Here’s a charting of the data:
Chris Young .264 BA .492 SLG% 72% CT Reached AA by 21yrs
Derrek Lee .291 BA .484 SLG% 74% CT Reached AA by 21yrs
Eric Davis .289 BA .514 SLG% 73% CT Reached AA by 21yrs
Preston Wilson .258 BA .472 SLG% 72% CT Reached AA by 23yrs
Ruben Rivera .261 BA .476 SLG% 71% CT Reached AA by 21yrs
Mike Cameron .258 BA .424 SLG% 75% CT Reached AA by 22yrs


What this tells me, just from a quick perusal and assessment, is that Young is most similar to Davis in terms of raw power. And it’s Davis who is the most intriguing on the list in that he, too, was extremely thin but managed to generate tons of power through his very strong wrists (think Alfonso Soriano if you’re too young to remember Davis). Obviously, you don’t have to be as big as Big Papi to hit the heck outta the ball.

Wilson was a full two years behind Young when he reached AA, so the comparison is a bit out of whack and likely not very applicable.

Rivera is a strange case, and probably one that should be studied more adequately on another occasion. He hit very well almost all the way up the ladder (unlike Young, who has gotten progressively better at each rung) until his first full year in AAA at the age of 22 when he simply forgot how to hit for power. His contact rates dwindled a bit as he rose through the minors until that first full year, too. Let’s take a look at those rates:

78% contact; .276 SLG% in Rookie ball (17 yrs)

75% contact; 371 SLG% in Rookie ball (18 yrs)

67% contact; .568 SLG% in Low A-ball (19 yrs)

69% contact; .572 SLG% in A-ball (20 yrs)

72% contact; .448 SLG% in High A-ball (20 yrs)

70% contact; .523 SLG% in AA (21 yrs)

64% contact; .598 SLG% in AAA (21 yrs)

74% contact; .395 SLG% in AAA (22 yrs)

What’s striking is that Rivera did very well in his first stint in AAA where he posted a .967 OPS. However, his rapidly falling contact rate that half-season caused a dramatic paradigm shift – either of Rivera’s own doing or because of intentional coaching within the Yankees’ system – in Rivera’s approach the next year. His first full season of AAA saw him up the contact rate at the severe expense of his Slugging Percentage, which plummeted back to levels nearly matching his first couple of years in the minors. Interestingly, he also made better contact during those early seasons. Rivera reached the majors but never regained his power stroke. I have no idea why, and I’m sure many others who are more qualified than I have tried to tell the story. In any case, Rivera is a cautionary tale for those of us who drool whenever we see a high OPS or SLG% from young minor leaguers. They don’t always work out. Okay, duly noted. Next…

Finally, the Lee inclusion on the comparables list is likely the closest “match,” at least through AA, and is more or less there to show what type of eventual payoff a player could have with hard work every step of the way. He managed to find a happy medium in AAA in terms of power versus contact, and has worked on and adjusted that aspect of his game for his entire career – the culmination of which was his stellar 2005 campaign. His work ethic is allegedly excellent, so that’s a key aspect of a player succeeding and continuing to improve upon that success.

Thus far, the track record of Chris Young has been such that we can infer two things. One, Young adjusts and excels quickly to new leagues and pitchers (he has hit better and for more power at each stop). And two, Young is very likely to hit for good power in the big leagues with his rapidly ascending Slugging Percentages. Given that neither is a definite at the Major League level (in the big leagues, is anything?!), the mere likelihood of either of the two traits is a good start. That Young potentially brings both to the table portends well. He’s maturing and coming into his own, and the D-backs and fantasy owners alike can reap the benefits soon because of it…

…which isn’t to say Young is without faults. Let’s not get confused about that either. While power and speed are two commodities Young has in droves, contact hitting has eluded him thus far. His 72% contact rate in the minors is a bit below the threshold of which most could accurately predict Young to hit for a good batting average. The Derrek Lee comparison is perhaps the best-case scenario.

Lee was very similar to Young early in his career as he sacrificed contact for more power (BP has detailed a high correlation between strikeouts and homeruns). However, Lee has, as already mentioned, worked his way to becoming a better contact hitter without sacrificing his power. It’s an adjustment he first began making in AAA, and he’s pressed hard in that regard for his entire career, culminating in his career year in 2005. That’s one amongst a thousand good reasons to enjoy and appreciate a hitter who makes quick adjustments and excels with them. A hitter like Chris Young, for example.

Let’s talk more about power. While Mike Cameron was generally a 20+ HR/30+ SB candidate (with all the usual caveats concerning the over/under of ranges), Young projects to have much more power at this point – somewhere in the range of 30/30 with power upside. And it should be a more consistent range than Cameron’s power, too. Cameron’s power output in ’01 and ‘02 saw him hit 25 homeruns each season, and then he hit 30 when he started swinging for the fences at age 31. In his other seasons, the power numbers fluctuated wildly. Young thus far seems to have a larger peak of homerun hitting power due to his ample minor league SLG% and also the potential to start hitting for it earlier in his career, too (as he has adjusted much quicker and hit better at younger ages than Cameron). And while everyone talks about how (enter ballplayer’s name here) could be a 30/30 threat, I’m not sure anyone realizes how scarce that type of player really is. The list of players who’ve accomplished the feat in the last three years is three men deep – Carlos Beltran (once), Bobby Abreu (once), and Alfonso Soriano (twice). And make no mistake – Young has a projectable and consistent range near or above that vaunted mark.

Lastly, there’s the batting average question. Young is not going to hit for a high average initially. With his contact rates thus far, he’s much more apt to be a .260-.270 hitter in the beginning. Again, let’s put Mike Cameron to the test as his contact rates are similar. The difference between Safeco Field and Bank One Ballpark is essentially the difference between Mike Cameron hitting .253 with 18 homeruns in ’03 versus a translated line of .270 with 20+ homers in Arizona. There’s a 15% increase for right-handed batting average and a 22% increase for right-handed homerun production in Arizona versus Seattle. So if we’re pegging Young as similar to Cameron in terms of contact ability, it makes sense to factor in the ballpark into the matter. Young, then, will likely hit for a markedly better average over the long haul, with thanks going to both his park as well as his higher HR rate (a ball going out of the park can’t be caught, of course).

I think Young would best be described as likely having a floor-level equivalent to Mike Cameron’s peak at this point, and that’s about the closest the two should come. He’s a quick learner with both excellent base-stealing speed and good (and progressively increasing) power, and it’s the power that really separates him from Cameron. Young’s ceiling? Think Eric Davis without the padded steals numbers or maybe Derrek Lee if Young works on his game consistently and continuously. Given the relative scarcity of steals in the marketplace, I’d say a .270 hitter with a consistent 30/30 power/speed range could end up as the second best fantasy hitter, after Delmon Young, to come out of this year’s rookie crop. Get in on the ground floor, folks.

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