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Targeting Pitchers thru PQS Trends - 2007
Posted on Sunday, January 28 @ 23:49:06 PST by rotochamp1
Champ's Corner

Identifying Starting Pitchers that you want to target for your draft or auction is a daunting task every year. Unfortunately pitchers are far more volatile in their performance for year to year than hitters are, and this results in a lower level of confidence in projections for them. The best way to offset this lack of confidence is to utilize as many indicators as possible when doing an evaluation. In the rotochamps projections we utilize many base skill indicator trends to develop our projections, but there is still more we can do to isolate some some pitchers to target on draft day.

Once we have done our projections we want to know who we think is most likely to exceed the projection, and thereby give us unexpected value during the season. The way I like to do this is to examine a three year history of the pitcher’s Pure Quality Starts (PQS) logs.

PQS is an improvement on the more well known Quality Starts statistic. PQS was developed by Ron Shandler and the PQS Logs can be found on baseballhq.com or in his book Baseball Forecaster. Each starting pitcher has his game scored in the following manner:

  1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 IP.
  2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP.
  3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his IP.
  4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked.
  5. He must have allowed no more than one homerun.

Each starting pitcher is given a score of 0-5 based on how many of the criteria he met. A score of 4 or 5 is considered a dominant start. A score of 0 or 1 is considered a disasterous start. I like to look for a trend for the last 3 seasons of improving DOM% along with a decreasing or maintaining DIS%. This shows a growth of maturity or learning how to pitch rather than just throw. This of course is best used for pitchers who have not yet appeared to reach their potential results. Conversely you can use this technique to identify veteran pitchers who are subtly becoming less and less dominant, but that decline may not have manifested in their results yet.  Below I will provide a list of target players and players to avoid based on this technique. Keep in mind that I am not saying these pitchers will be dominant or fall apart, just that they are more likely than the rest of the pack to either beat their projection or fall short, depending on the list they are on. Now what you are waiting for, the lists:

IMPROVING DECLINING
Jeff Francis Kris Benson
Aaron Harang  Mark Buehrle 
Dan Haren Matt Clement 
Scott Kazmir Adam Eaton 
Brett Myers  Scott Elarton 
C.C. Sabathia  Tim Hudson
Tim Wakefield Jason Johnson 
Brandon Webb Jon Lieber
Jose Lima 
Rodrigo Lopez
Jason Marquis
  Ramon Ortiz 
  Russ Ortiz 
  Joel Pineiro 
Jeff Suppan 

Kip Wells 

Woody Williams
 
 
 
 
 
 
   
   
   

This 2007 list has the fewest strong improvement pitchers I can ever remember.  That does not mean there are fewer quality starting pitchers, just a small list of them demonstrating well-rounded improvement in their game. 

Remember, this is just another tool to use when developing your list of pitchers to target on draft day. These are not the only pitchers you should be targeting on draft day, but they may have the best chance of out-performing their projections.


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