This week we are looking at the Top Value Players in the National League.  Rather than try to identify the players no one knows about, we have decided to change the approach and help identify players that you can likely get good value relative to their draft position.  Call them sleepers, value players, or whatever you like, but here are some players in the NL that could help you win your championship.

CATCHERS

Chris Snyder – Arizona Diamondbacks – Age: 23
Projection: .260 – 50R – 15HR – 58RBI – 0SB
Chris Snyder impressed the coaches in his rookie call-up last season.  Snyder is the favorite to win the starting catcher job over Koyie Hill.  He has demonstrated an improving BB/K ratio throughout his minor league career and he posted a .300+ AVG over the last year and half.  He has maintained his excellent 2B% while increasing his HR%.  Snyder is an average defender with above average hitting skills for the catcher position and should be able to hold the starting job all season.

J.D. Closser – Colorado Rockies – Age: 24
Projection: .290 – 34R - 7HR – 41RBI – 0SB
J.D. Closser has been playing in the minors since 1998 and yet he is still only 24 years old.  He has demonstrated superior plate discipline throughout his career and now he gets to hit at Coor’s field.  He could easily surpass the projected numbers if he gets more playing time than we have forecasted.

FIRST BASEMEN

Adam LaRoche – Atlanta Braves – Age: 25
Projection: .295 – 69R – 23HR – 74RBI – 0SB
Many people are still overlooking LaRoche because they are not looking at his 2nd half split.  After the All-star break LaRoche posted a .944 OPS, outslugging J.D. Drew and Chipper Jones.  He is only 25 and you should look at the 1st half of 2004 as growing pains.  The fact he was so good in the second half should leave you optimistic for 2005.

Pedro Feliz – San Francisco Giants – Age: 29
Projection: .270 – 59R – 21HR – 71RBI – 4SB
Many fantasy owners are overlooking Feliz because he still does not have a starting role for the Giants.  The fact is the team will still get him 400+ AB all over the infield.  I don’t think you can find another player eligible at 1B, 3B and SS who will pop 20+ HR available in the second half of your draft.

SECOND BASEMEN

Junior Spivey – Milwaukee Brewers – Age: 29
Projection: .276 – 80R – 18HR – 72RBI – 12SB
Spivey has lost a lot of time to injury over the last 2 seasons.  He had surgery on his shoulder and will be ready to go in spring training.  He is in the prime of his career and a full season will produce good numbers at a very thin position.  He gives a nice blend of speed and power and will go late in most drafts.

Chris Burke – Houston Astros – Age: 24
Projection: .274 – 77R – 13HR – 64RBI – 36SB
Chris Burke takes over second base for the Astros.  While he is the heir apparent to Biggio in the leadoff spot, he will likely hit 2nd this season.  He is a good contact hitter with plenty of speed on the bases.  He should score a decent amount hitting in front of Berkman and Bagwell.  He is a nice source of SB at a thin position.

THIRD BASEMEN

David Wright – New York Mets – Age: 22
Projection: .281 – 86R – 24HR – 91RBI – 23SB
In some leagues David Wright will be overvalued, especially in leagues full of Mets fans, however there is still a large part of the fantasy community that is not ready to put their faith in him.  David Wright is ready to be a 20-20 player in 2005 and hitting behind Reyes and Beltran will provide plenty of RBI opportunities.

Garrett Atkins – Colorado Rockies – Age: 25
Projection: .292 – 65R – 14HR – 70RBI – 0SB
Garret Atkins is another young Colorado hitter with fantastic plate discipline.  He is a high contact doubles hitter who is a little light on power for a 3B.  He would make a nice CI or UT choice especially in an NL only league.

SHORTSTOPS

Cesar Izturis – Los Angeles Dodgers – Age: 24
Projection:  .277 – 80R – 10HR – 75RBI – 20SB
Cesar Izturis is not just the best defensive SS in the National League, he is also becoming a solid leadoff hitter.  Over the last couple seasons he has walked more, struck out less, and improved his success rate on the bases.  This may be the last year that he is undervalued.

Clint Barmes – Colorado Rockies – Age: 24
Projection: .286 – 83R – 14HR – 74RBI – 14SB
Yes, yet another Colorado player.  Barmes is not nearly as disciplined as the others on this list but he has improved his contact ability.  He has also becoming a better basestealer but he still needs to improve the success rate if he wants to continue running in the majors.

OUTFIELDERS

Dave Roberts – San Diego Padres – Age: 32
Projection: .256 – 100R – 7HR – 44RBI – 61SB
The Padres acquired Dave Roberts because they wanted a legitimate base stealing threat at the top of the order and Roberts could see the most at-bats of his career.  If he gets the playing time we are forecasting he could challenge Pierre for the league SB title.

Brad Wilkerson – Washington Nationals – Age: 25
Projection: .271 – 103R – 34HR – 71RBI – 13SB
One league GM was quoted as saying that Wilkerson is one of the top all-around OF in the National League.  Last year was a strong season for him and 2005 should be even better.  This guy is 27 and has consistently improved his BB/K, Contact rate and OPS every year.

Jose Guillen – Washington Nationals – Age: 28
Projection: .285 – 88R – 28HR – 99RBI – 3SB
Jose Guillen will be overlooked on draft day because he fell out of favor in Anaheim and was exiled to the Nationals.  Most people will look for Castilla to be the primary RBI man in Washington but it is Guillen who will be the better hit in the middle of the order.

Brady Clark – Milwaukee Brewers – Age: 31
Projection: .280 – 99R – 11HR – 66RBI – 26SB
Brady Clark steps into a full time role in CF for the Brewers.  He also inherits the leadoff role with the departure of Scott Podsednik.  Clark is a high contact player with enough speed to be a threat on the bases.  He will not be a star, but he is certainly not a bad late selection OF for your fantasy team.

Jayson Werth – Los Angeles Dodgers – Age: 25
Projection: .268 – 74R – 20HR – 84RBI – 11SB
Jayson Werth will be the starting LF in LA with Jason Grabowski stealing a few at bats from him.  Werth has a nice combination of power and speed but his declining BB/K rate the last two seasons in the minors is a concern.  If he can hold on to his job he will be a nice late draft steal.

STARTING PITCHERS

Jon Lieber – Philadelphia Phillies – Age: 34
Projection:  15W – 130K – 3.88 ERA – 1.20 WHIP
In 2001 Jon Lieber pitched brilliantly and won 20 games.  In 2002 he was pitching equally well until he went down with injured and required Tommy John Surgery.  He missed the entire 2003 season but returned to pitch for the Yankees in 2004.  It has been 2 years since his surgery which is about the time most pitchers are back to pitching the way they were before the injury.  He returns to the National League and will be the best pitcher in the Phillies rotation.

Dave Williams – Pittsburgh Pirates – Age: 25
Projection: 7W – 93K – 3.52 ERA – 1.28 WHIP
Dave Williams has been gradually exposed to the majors over the last few seasons but had a set back when he torn his labrum in 2002.  He had a solid season in 2004 and even impressed in a few late season starts for the big club.  He will be competing for the fifth spot in the rotation this spring and he is our pick to win the job.

Jerome Williams – San Francisco Giants – Age: 23
Projections: 13W - 119K - 3.75 ERA - 1.29 WHIP
Jerome Williams is one of the bright young pitchers coming out of the San Francisco system.  He was nagged by arm injuries all season and ended up having minor surgery to have particles removed from his elbow.  This minor surgery should help him avoid a more serious elbow problem in the near future.  He will be fully recovered for the start of the season and should return to numbers closer to his 2003 season.

RELIEF PITCHERS

Of course most of the value picks in relief pitchers are in situations where the incumbent starter is at risk of losing his job.  We will review a couple of these situations in the NL:

Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee has a real mess in the closer situation.  Youngster Mike Adams was the favorite to inherit the closer role when Kolb was traded but then the team signed Ricky Bottalico.  Some people speculate that Bottalico is now the favorite, but he has not recorded double digit saves in years.  We think Bottalico is just a backup plan in case Adams fails.  There is also a chance that Capellan could fail in his bid to make the rotation and then he would be a natural selection for the closer role.  Our forecast is that Capellan will make the rotation and Adams will hold on to the job, but don’t select him early in the draft.

Colorado Rockies

The Chacon experiment failed and the team was unable to acquire a proven closer via trade.  This leaves the closer role to initially be filled by Chin-hui Tsao.  They did not want to put the pressure of closing on him so quicky, but he is the best option.  If he falters Brian Fuentes would love to get a shot and Aaron Taylor was a minor league closer and could step in.  Tsao is a good late draft selection, but do not reach on him as he is completely unproven.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Jose Valverde suffered from both elbow and shoulder problems in 2004 and required surgery.  The team is optimistic that he will be ready in time for spring training but that does not mean he will necessarily return to the closer role.  While he was out of commission Greg Aquino stepped in and performed very well.  The difference is that Valverde if completely healthy is a much more dominant pitcher.  This is a situation to watch in the spring. 

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs management really needs to get on the same page.  Jim Hendry and Dusty Baker disagree on a number of things, one of which is who should be the closer in Chicago.  Hendry wants Ryan Dempster to get the job but Baker has expressed a preference to have Hawkins in the closer role.  Another complication is the return of Joe Borowski.  He was not a good closer to begin with but Dusty Baker is loyal to a fault with his veterans.