Baseball Headlines:   National League Game Capsules    Mets move ahead of Phils in NL East behind Perez, Delgado    American League Game Capsules    There's no place like home; Cubs fry Fish at Wrigley    Meche, Buck lead Royals over Rays in KC    Brew Crew makes history with sweep of Cardinals    Herrera earns first MLB win as Bucs down Padres    Meche, Buck lead Royals over Rays in KC    There's no place like home; Cubs fry Fish at Wrigley    Rays activate SS Bartlett   
hittersAll MLB hitters hittersAll MLB hitters Page 2 hittersAll MLB hitters Page 3 hittersAll MLB hitters Page 4 hittersAll MLB hitters Page 5 hittersAll MLB hitters Page 6 PitchersAll MLB Pitchers PitchersAll MLB Pitchers PitchersAll MLB Pitchers Page 2 PitchersAll MLB Pitchers Page 3 PitchersAll MLB Pitchers Page 4 PitchersAll MLB Pitchers Page 5 PitchersAll MLB Pitchers Page 6 2008 MLB Projections, fantasy baseball, 2008 MLB Forecasts, fantasy, roto, rotisserie, rotiserie, rotisserrie, roto-baseball, base ball, stats, analysis, stat, statistical, statistics, projected, projection, projections, 2008 projections, injury reports, report, injuries, rumors, rumor mill, transaction, draft, mlb, major league, minor-league, minors, roster, rosters, chart, depth, charts, 5x5, 4x4, 5by5, 4by4, message board, keeper, dollar values, dollar-value, keepers, sleeper, sleepers, tools, toolbox, forum, forums, chat, stats, player ranking, news, draft kit, pre season, in season, preseason, inseason, offseason, pre-season, in-season, off-season, roto champs, talk central, info ranks, help, value, rating, links, scoring, league, formula, tips, how to win, team, teams, fantasy, sports, stats service, reports, rulefantasy baseball league, free league fantasy baseball leagues,hosting, book, roto store, books, movies, book-store, official, rlba, RLBA, rotiserie baseball fantasy baseball leagues,association, free agent, team transactions, contracts, salaries, games by position, fantasy baseball, fantasy, roto, rotisserie, rotiserie, rotisserrie, roto-baseball, base ball, stats, analysis, stat, statistical, statistics, projected, projection, projections, 2008 projections, injury reports, report, injuries, rumors, rumor mill, transaction, draft, mlb, major league, minor-league, minors, roster, rosters, chart, depth, charts, 5x5, 4x4, 5by5, 4by4, message board, keeper, dollar values, dollar-value, keepers, sleeper, sleepers, tools, toolbox, forum, forums, chat, stats, player ranking, news, draft kit, pre season, in season, preseason, inseason, offseason, pre-season, in-season, off-season, roto champs, talk central, info ranks, help, value, rating, links, scoring, league, formula, tips, how to win, team, teams, fantasy, sports, stats service, reports, rule book, roto store, books, movies, book-store, official, rlba, RLBA, rotiserie baseball association, free agent, team transactions, contracts, salaries, games by position, fantasy baseball, fantasy, roto, rotisserie, rotiserie, rotisserrie, roto-baseball, base ball, stats, analysis, stat, statistical, statistics, projected, projection, projections, 2008 projections, injury reports, report, injuries, rumors, rumor mill, transaction, draft, mlb, major league, minor-league, minors, roster, rosters, chart, depth, charts, 5x5, 4x4, 5by5, 4by4, message board, keeper, dollar values, dollar-value, keepers, sleeper, sleepers, tools, toolbox, forum, forums, chat, stats,

player fantasy baseball leagues, ranking, news, draft kit, pre season, in season, fantasy baseball league, free league hosting, preseason, inseason, offseason, pre-season, in-season, off-season, roto champs, talk central, info ranks, help, value, rating, links, scoring, league, formula, tips, how to win, team, teams, fantasy, sports, stats service, reports, rule book, roto store, books, movies, book-store, official, rlba, RLBA, rotiserie baseball association, free agent, team transactions, contracts, salaries, games by position, fantasy baseball, fantasy, roto, rotisserie, rotiserie, rotisserrie, roto-baseball, base ball, stats, analysis, stat, statistical, statistics, projected, projection, projections, 2008 projections, injury reports, report, injuries, rumors, rumor mill, transaction, draft, mlb, major league, minor-league, minors, roster, rosters, chart, depth, charts, 5x5, 4x4, 5by5, 4by4, message board, keeper, dollar values, dollar-value, keepers, sleeper, sleepers, fantasy baseball leagues, tools, toolbox, forum, forums, chat, stats, player ranking, news, draft kit, pre season, in season, preseason, inseason, fantasy baseball league, free league hosting, offseason, pre-season, in-season, off-season, roto champs, talk central, info ranks, help, value, rating, links, scoring, league, formula, tips, how to win, team, teams, fantasy, sports, stats service, reports, rule book, roto store, books, movies, book-store, official, rlba, RLBA, rotiserie baseball association, free agent, team transactions, contracts, salaries, games by position, fantasy baseball, fantasy, roto, rotisserie, rotiserie, rotisserrie, roto-baseball, base ball, stats, analysis, stat, statistical, statistics, projected, projection, projections, 2008 projections, injury reports, report, injuries, rumors, rumor mill, transaction, draft, mlb, major league, minor-league, minors, roster, rosters, chart, depth, charts, 5x5, 4x4, 5by5, 4by4, message board, keeper, dollar values, dollar-value, keepers, sleeper, sleepers, tools, toolbox, forum, forums, chat, stats, player ranking, news, draft kit, pre season, in season, preseason, inseason, offseason, pre-season, in-season, off-season, roto champs, fantasy baseball league, free league hosting, talk central, info ranks, help, value, rating, links, scoring, league,

2008 MLB Forecasts formula, tips, fantasy baseball leagues,how to win, team, teams, fantasy, sports, stats service, fantasy baseball leagues, reports, rule book, roto store, books, movies, book-store, official, rlba, RLBA, rotiserie baseball association, free agent, team transactions, contracts, salaries, games by position, fantasy baseball, fantasy, roto, rotisserie, rotiserie, rotisserrie, roto-baseball, base ball, stats, analysis, stat, statistical, statistics, projected, projection, projections, 2008 projections, injury reports, report, injuries, rumors, rumor mill, transaction, draft, mlb, major league, minor-league, minors, roster, rosters, chart, depth, charts, 5x5, 4x4, 5by5, 4by4, message board, keeper, dollar values, dollar-value, keepers, sleeper, sleepers, tools, toolbox, forum, forums, chat, stats, player ranking, news, draft kit, pre season, in season, preseason, inseason, offseason, pre-season, in-season, off-season, roto champs, talk central, info ranks, help, value, rating, links, scoring, league, formula, tips, how to win, team, teams, fantasy, sports, stats service, reports, fantasy baseball league, free league hosting, rule book, roto store, books, movies, book-store, official, rlba, RLBA, rotiserie baseball association, free agent, team transactions, contracts, salaries, games by position All Baseball News All Baseball Hitters All Baseball Pitchers 2008 MLB Projections
 

Your Account

Player Tracker
Stats Search Wizard
Position Eligibility
2 Start Pitchers
Roto Rankings
Downloads
RotoChat
Roto Bookstore
Tell A Friend About RotoChamps.com

There are currently 0 people in chat:
JOIN CHAT
Targeting Pitchers thru PQS Trends
Posted on Wednesday, March 02 @ 11:53:27 PST by rotochamp1
Champ's Corner

Identifying Starting Pitchers that you want to target for your draft or auction is a daunting task every year. Unfortunately pitchers are far more volatile in their performance for year to year than hitters are, and this results in a lower level of confidence in projections for them. The best way to offset this lack of confidence is to utilize as many indicators as possible when doing an evaluation. In the rotochamps projections we utilize many base skill indicator trends to develop our projections, but there is still more we can do to isolate some some pitchers to target on draft day.

Once we have done our projections we want to know who we think is most likely to exceed the projection, and thereby give us unexpected value during the season. The way I like to do this is to examine a three year history of the pitcher’s Pure Quality Starts (PQS) logs.

PQS is an improvement on the more well known Quality Starts statistic. PQS was developed by Ron Shandler and the PQS Logs can be found on baseballhq.com or in his book Baseball Forecaster. Each starting pitcher has his game scored in the following manner:

  1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 IP.
  2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP.
  3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his IP.
  4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked.
  5. He must have allowed no more than one homerun.

Each starting pitcher is given a score of 0-5 based on how many of the criteria he met. A score of 4 or 5 is considered a dominant start. A score of 0 or 1 is considered a disasterous start. I like to look for a trend for the last 3 seasons of improving DOM% along with a decreasing or maintaining DIS%. This shows a growth of maturity or learning how to pitch rather than just throw. This of course is best used for pitchers who have not yet appeared to reach their potential results. Conversely you can use this technique to identify veteran pitchers who are subtly becoming less and less dominant, but that decline may not have manifested in their results yet. Also there are some young pitchers on the list that do not have 3 years of experience but are listed due to the very strong results they should in this study. Below I will provide a list of target players and players to avoid based on this technique. Keep in mind that I am not saying these pitchers will be dominant or fall apart, just that they are more likely than the rest of the pack to either beat their projection or fall short, depending on the list they are on. Now what you are waiting for, the lists:

IMPROVING DECLINING
Bronson Arroyo Brian Anderson
Josh Beckett Tony Armas
Kris Benson Ryan Drese
Jeremy Bonderman Josh Fogg
Mark Buerhle Tom Glavine
A.J. Burnett Kaz Ishii
Roger Clemens Brian Lawrence
Adam Eaton Al Leiter
Kelvim Escobar
 Derek Lowe
Ryan Franklin Pedro Martinez
Zach Greinke Matt Morris
Rich Harden Jamie Moyer
Livan Hernandez Hideo Nomo
Joe Kennedy Tomo Ohka
Cory Lidle Vicente Padilla
Jon Leiber Odalis Perez
Ted Lilly Kirk Rueter
Jose Lima Curt Schilling
Noah Lowry Tim Wakefield
Bobby Madritsch Jarrod Washburn
Carl Pavano Woody Williams
Jake Peavy Randy Wolf
Brad Penny  
Joel Pineiro  
Brad Radke  
   

One of the biggest surprises for me on this list was that Roger Clemens still made the Improving list. He is still continuing to dominant at a greater rate, despite his age. Pedro Martinez and Curt Schilling appear on the declining list as they are gradually becoming less dominant, but clearly you could do worse than to have them on your fantasy roster. There are alot of names on these lists that are less clear cut and hopefully this list will help you in making some choices.

Remember, this is just another tool to use when developing your list of pitchers to target on draft day. Many of these improving pitchers have poor projections, but they have the chance to put it all together soon. The nice thing is that there are alot of pitchers on the improving list that you can find in the last rounds of your draft or on the waiver wire in April. If these players go undrafted watch them closely in the early going and if they throw well, there is a good chance they will continue to all year.


 Printer Friendly Page  Printer Friendly Page

 Send to a Friend  Send to a Friend
Get Cheap Tickets
including Baseball Tickets and Basketball Tickets at TicketLiquidator.
Got extra? Sell tickets