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Chaos in Closer Land
Posted on Friday, April 29 @ 11:29:44 PDT by rotochamp1
Champ's CornerThere is Chaos in Closer Land and it is the most discussed topic on the forums right now. The Chicago Cubs, San Francisco Giants, St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers all have bullpens in flux. While I cannot pretend to know the minds of each team's respective managers, I can help you evaluate which relievers are likely to make the most of any save opportunities thrown their way.


Chicago Cubs

LaTroy Hawkins ERA WHIP K/BB K/9
2004 2.63 1.05 4.93 7.57
2005 4.32 1.08 2.00 6.48
Hawkins has the best stuff of the group but does not seem to have the mental make up to close games. He already has 2 blown saves in just 5 opportunities. He will see save opportunities but his numbers will suffer for it. He needs to be allowed to pitch in the comfort of the setup role.

Mike Remlinger ERA WHIP K/BB K/9
2004 3.44 1.34 2.19 8.59
2005 6.75 1.20 3.00 8.10
Ignore the ERA, his WHIP is a better indicator of his ability. He has not posted an ERA above 3.65 since 1998. He has a career K/9 of 8.81 which makes him prime closer material. The problem is that he is the team's best lefty option in the bullpen and teams are generally hesitant to limit their lefty specialist to ninth inning duty. He will see save opportunities if the matchups are right.

Michael Wuertz ERA WHIP K/BB K/9
2004 4.35 1.34 1.77 9.31
2005 2.70 1.30 2.50 9.00
Wuertz has posted a strong K/9 in his brief major league exposure and saved 19 games at Iowa in 2004. Keep in mind that few minor league closers end up becoming successfull major league closers. The team will probably give him a couple save chances to see how he responds but he is probably not yet ready for that role.


San Francisco Giants
Matt Herges ERA WHIP K/BB K/9
2004 2.62 1.70 1.86 5.37
2005 5.24 1.50 1.00 3.86
Matt Herges managed to get 23 saves in 2004 which has many people thinking he is the logical replacement for Benitez. Sure he may manage to close out a few games but don't forget while acquiring those saves in 2004 the league hit .338 off him and posted an .890 OPS. That is alot of scary ninth innings.

Jeff Fassero ERA WHIP K/BB K/9
2004 5.46 1.61 1.36 4.82
2005 2.79 1.03 1.67 4.65
It has been 3 years since Fassero posted a sub-5.00 ERA. In that 2001 season he picked up 12 saves for the Cubs but he also posted a 9.65 K/9 that season, by far the highest of his career. Fassero is also a lefty which generally works against relievers wanting the closer job. He has a better situation than Remlinger in Chicago because there are 2 other lefties in the Giants bullpen. His K/9 is too low for a closer, especially considering his K/BB rate is not high enough to make up for it.

Jim Brower ERA WHIP K/BB K/9
2004 3.29 1.35 1.75 6.10
2005 5.06 1.31 0.86 5.06
I included Brower in the conversation because his name was rumored on the forums. He has posted a sub-4.00 ERA 3 of the last 4 seasons but right now he is struggling. He has walked more batters than he has struck out, a killer combination for a closer. If he gets it together he will get some looks, unless the team can trade for a solid alternative first.


Milwaukee Brewers

Derrick Turnbow ERA WHIP K/BB K/9
Minor League Totals 4.38 1.38 2.02 7.71
2005 2.08 1.04 1.20 6.23
Turnbow is the current closer and has converted both of his save chances since supplanting Adams. I listed Turnbow's career totals because he did not have enough MLB experience to mean anything. He is a hard thrower but typically struggles with control. He only posted a 4.38 ERA in the minors so asking for better in the majors is asking too much. Wait for him to blow one or two save opps and the baton will be passed to the next guy.

Mike Adams ERA WHIP K/BB K/9
2004 3.40 1.21 2.79 6.62
2005 3.52 1.83 0.83 5.87
Mike Adams is considered to be the closer of the future for the Brewers and they let him start the season in that role. Despite only one blown save they pulled him from closer duty due to control problems. Watch him closely for a change in his walk rate and then snap him up as he will reclaim the closer job at some point this season.

Ricky Bottalico ERA WHIP K/BB K/9
2004 3.38 1.27 1.79 7.92
2005 3.24 0.96 4.00 4.32
Bottalico would actually be a better closer option than Turnbow right now. He has experience in the role and would welcome the opportunity. Yes his strikeout rate is down but his K/BB is a fantastic 4.00. With a WHIP under 1 he is clearly limiting the opportunities the offense has to score. If Turnbow blows a couple saves and Adams does not get his walk rate under control Bottalico could be a nice save source for a couple months.


St. Louis Cardinals

Julian Tavarez ERA WHIP K/BB K/9
2004 2.38 1.18 2.53 6.72
2005 4.91 1.64 2.75 9.00
With Izzy on the DL Tavarez is stepping in as the primary closer. He certainly is striking guys out at a closer worthy rate but that .311 opponent AVG has to be a concern.

Ray King ERA WHIP K/BB K/9
2004 2.61 1.08 1.67 5.81
2005 0.00 1.33 1.00 3.00
Despite a poor K/9 and K/BB Ray King has managed to maintain a 0.00 ERA so far. He is the primary lefty in the bullpen and moving him to closer would be a mistake. He may get a couple save chances if the matchups are right but don't look for more than that.

Jimmy Journell ERA WHIP K/BB K/9
Minor League Totals 2.84 1.18 2.71 9.00
2005 4.91 1.36 1.00 7.36
Journell is a darkhorse here. The team has mentioned that his future with the team may be as Izzy's replacement. While he is not ready just yet, he is worth keeping an eye on. He had very strong ratios in the minors and could be 2 years away from a full time closer gig if his skills translate in the majors.

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