I’m a little too stubborn in what I think I know to be a dominant fantasy owner, but my teams have been consistently good in terms of win, place, or show. This year, though, I’m currently harboring two last place teams and another almost in last(as well as one first place squad). Here’s what’s going wrong:

The Ted Lilly Wounded Pride Syndrome – Yeah, I’m rostering this guy on two of my teams. Fucker. But I won’t be cutting him this year. You see, I cut him last year after he stunk up the mound in the first two months of the season(3 wins and a 4.67 era), and then he came on strong in the summer for one of my competitor’s (9 wins and a 3.81 era the rest of the way). Lilly’s second half in 2004 was the indication of his maturity on the promise he’s had all along. He ended up striking out 168 in 197 innings last year and held opponents to a .230 average. So I grabbed him in the middle rounds this March thinking he could win 14 and go 3.50 era, maybe K 190.

           
Of course, this hasn’t happened. His era is nearing the number of inches on a ruler. Sure, I’ve got him benched now, but I came into the season believing too much in him, in large part because I cut bait on him too early last season. I would be doing much  better this year to have cut him after April and filled the roster spot with John Patterson or Brett Myers, two pitchers who were still available after the first few weeks of the season. This quandary, though, does highlight the next diseased part of my teams.

The Knock it Off David Newhan Dilemma – Alright, I admit it. I pay too much attention to scouting reports. I want science to be an inherent factor in player performance. If I’m going to figure out who can play and who can’t, than logic and research must play a factor. But this idea undermines the precise reason we love baseball so much: the game is played by humans who variate from day to day, and as a result we never know what will happen on the field.

           
Newhan could have been available to me every day of his incredible run last year and I would not have picked him up. He had spent 10 years in the littles and was never much of a prospect. His scouting reports were thinner than Lilly’s curveball is this year. This I knew. I also knew that if I picked him up, his fluky streak would have screeched to an immediate halt(don’t pretend that you don’t entertain these superstitions).

           
And this will be one of the reasons my teams always suffer, really. I think I know who will play well and who won’t. But none of us can really know when a player will finally get it after a Ted-Lilly-era stretch in the minors. Hell, I had multiple chances to pick up Brett Myers early this season. But I had the misfortune of watching him post Lilly-like numbers the last few years and didn’t want to roster Myers just in time for him to revert to his old self.  It turns out, though, that every once in a while something clicks in a player and it all comes together at once. And to those fantasy owners who aren’t hung up on the ego-filled notion that they know who’s supposed to be good and who isn’t, go the spoils.  

 The Oh, No, LaTroy Trouble – I drafted Hawkins for three of my teams this spring. I didn’t care all that much whether he closed or set-up; I could use the saves in two leagues or the holds in another. Mostly, I wanted 90 innings of era and whip help from a relief master who had posted three straight seasons of eras under 2.7 and whips under 1.1. But now that Hawkins can’t pitch the eighth or the ninth inning, he is on 6^th-inning and mop-up duty. So what do I do here: cut my losses and look for an Aaron Harang-type pitcher on the wire, or stick with LaTroy a little longer?

           
I’m sticking. Hawkins numbers aren’t all that bad(3.3 era/1.29 whip); he simply turned (even more) into a head case in the late innings. I don’t expect him to be the closer again, but I do think he can return to being a premier 8^th inning set-up man. Maybe I’ll get burned here, but this does underlie one of the keys for fantasy success. As we’ve seen in the examples above, players, more than being sets of arms and legs that work really well, are humans with mental and emotional states that we know almost nothing about. And this quality is just as important, if not more important, than their “tools.” In Hawkins case, he got thrown into the headcase fire after his comment last year about how he can do sportswriter’s jobs, but they can’t do his so they should back off him. Of course they have hounded him during his early struggles this year and apparently, they’ve gotten into his head. Coming out of the spotlight should help him get straight, I hope.    

           
If there’s a lesson for success in here, I suppose it’s that one must combine patience for players who’ve known strong performance with an open-mind that there are surprise players every season who shouldn’t play so well, but do. Consider one or two of your roster spots as potential revolving doors for players on hot streaks. For instance, I picked up Tino Martinez about 10 days ago and am now about to cut him. He’s got a huge string of 0-fers coming, sort of like Joe Randa this past week. And I’m not about to cut loose the guys I have on one suffering team(Victor Martinez, Paul Konerko, Eric Chavez, Steve Finley, Kevin Millar) because they are at the end of their slumps and ready to bust out right about now . . . or now . . . any time now, guys.     

Robert Stapleton is a very patient man who is nearing the end of his rope. He teaches writing at Butler University in Indianapolis. His comments do not necessarily reflect the views of Rotochamps.com.