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My annual LIMA review
 
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rosineater
Roto Guru
Roto Guru


Joined: Jan 05, 2004
Posts: 984
Location: Southern Ontario
PostPosted: Sat Feb 02, 2008 9:46 am Reply with quoteBack to top
Ok, to review, LIMA (Low Investment Mound Aces) is a strategy best employed in 4x4 Auction leagues (though it can work in competitive 5x5 leagues also). Basically, you allocate about 75% of your budget for hitting ($200 in a $260 roto league). With the remainig funds, spend half ($30) on saves, and the other half on pitchers who fit the following criteria the past year:

o 2.0 K:BB or better
o 6.0 K/9 IP or better
o 1.0 HR/9 or better.

o Past ERA is irrelevant
o Draft the minimum number of IP allowed.

Obviously the idea is to dominate the hitting categories, while finishing near the top in Saves, ERA and WHIP, with Wins falling where they may (likely near the cellar).

The following pitchers met the criteria for 2007 (with help from the Rotochamps Stats Search Wizard Detective :


PITCHER TEAM HR/9 K/9 BB K IP

Philip Hughes NYY 0.99 7.18 29 58 72.67
Kevin Millwood TEX 0.99 6.41 67 123 172.67
Dan Haren ARI 0.97 7.76 55 192 222.67
Felix Hernandez SEA 0.95 7.80 53 165 190.33
Ian Snell PIT 0.95 7.66 68 177 208.00
Jered Weaver ANA 0.95 6.43 45 115 161.00
Erik Bedard BAL 0.94 10.93 57 221 182.00
Scott Baker MIN 0.94 6.39 29 102 143.67
Chad Billingsley LAD 0.92 8.63 64 141 147.00
Gil Meche KCR 0.92 6.50 62 156 216.00
Derek Lowe LAD 0.90 6.64 59 147 199.33
Justin Verlander DET 0.89 8.17 67 183 201.67
Zack Greinke KCR 0.89 7.82 36 106 122.00
Randy Wolf SDP 0.88 8.24 39 94 102.67
Matt Garza TAM 0.87 7.27 32 67 83.00
Shawn Hill WAS 0.83 6.01 25 65 97.33
Tyler Yates ATL 0.82 9.41 31 69 66.00
Roger Clemens FA 0.82 6.18 31 68 99.00
Jon Lieber CHC 0.81 6.23 22 54 78.00
Tom Gorzelanny PIT 0.80 6.02 68 135 201.67
John Smoltz ATL 0.79 8.62 47 197 205.67
Scott Kazmir TAM 0.78 10.41 89 239 206.67
Josh Beckett BOS 0.76 8.70 40 194 200.67
C.C. Sabathia CLE 0.75 7.80 37 209 241.00
Tim Lincecum SFG 0.74 9.23 65 150 146.33
Rafael Perez CLE 0.74 9.20 15 62 60.67
Dustin McGowan TOR 0.74 7.64 61 144 169.67
Cha Seung Baek SEA 0.74 6.01 14 49 73.33
Justin Miller FLA 0.73 10.80 24 74 61.67
John Lackey ANA 0.72 7.19 52 179 224.00
Yovani Gallardo MIL 0.65 8.24 37 101 110.33
Matt Cain SFG 0.63 7.34 79 163 200.00
Peter Moylan ATL 0.60 6.30 31 63 90.00
Roy Oswalt HOU 0.59 6.54 60 154 212.00
Adam Wainwright STL 0.58 6.06 70 136 202.00
Chris Young SDP 0.52 8.69 72 167 173.00
Kelvim Escobar ANA 0.51 7.36 66 160 195.67
Jake Peavy SDP 0.46 9.71 64 234 217.00
Brandon Webb ARI 0.46 7.39 72 194 236.33
Carlos Marmol CHC 0.39 12.46 35 96 69.33
Joakim Soria KCR 0.39 9.78 19 75 69.00

Millwood and Wainwright actually just missed (BB/K), but I included them. Obviously a lot of these guys are relievers, but I left them in there -- you'll need relievers to fill out your innings and keep your ERA/WHIP in check anyway.

Many of these guys will certainly go for too much, though you could possibly spend $20 of your budget on a Felix Hernandez or Jered Weaver and scrape the barrel with the remaining $10, as long as you can get your minimum innings. Don't forget, you have your free agent acquisitions to assist in that regard -- historically, pitchers comprise the majority of helpful free agent pickups, and your offense should be pretty set anyway.

Some starters on the list that might go cheap include: Millwood, Snell, Baker, Billingsley, Meche, Lowe, Wolf, Garza, Gorzelanny, Lieber, McGowan, Baek, Lincecum, Wainwright.

Of course it depends on your level of competition and your region, but experienced auction participants know that there are always strong SP options who go later in the auction and slip for half their projected value.

Draft participants can employ a modified version of this plan -- simply forgo pitching in favor of hitting early, then swoop in and grab the late draft slips.

CONCLUSION: Last year when reviewing the list I concluded that 2007 might not be the best year for LIMA. This year, I see more uncertainty among the top pitchers, and more breakout and post-hype candidates that could emerge. Not a bad idea for 2008, if you're looking to try something new.

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