Deciding who to keep

minor league rover Joined: Jan 28, 2004 Posts: 20

I'm attempting to decide who to keep for the upcoming fantasy season. I feel I have a strong team going in and a good chance of Winning the pool. $130 salary, 14 hitters, 10 pitchers, 5X5 NL only. Need to keep 13 players. Please let me know who you would keep.

Helton, Todd 1B COL $22.00 2004
Ramirez, Aramis 3B CHC $7.50 2004
Piazza, Mike C NYM $16.00 2004
Phillips, Jason L. 1B NYM $3.00 2005
Hart, Bo 2B STL $1.00 2005
Spivey, Junior 2B ARI $1.50 2004
Abreu, Bobby RF PHI $18.50 2005
Duca, Paul Lo C LA $6.00 2004
Kearns, Austin RF CIN $2.50 2005
Beckett, Josh SP FLA $2.50 2004
Eaton, Adam SP SD $2.00 2004
Nomo, Hideo SP LA $5.00 2004
Smoltz, John RP ATL $13.00 2005
Williams, Jerome SP SF $2.50 2005
Willis, Dontrelle SP FLA $2.50 2005
Padilla, Vicente SP PHI $4.50 2004
Hoffman, Trevor RP SD $4.50 2005
Rollins, Jimmy SS PHI $6.50 2004

Posted: Wed Jan 28, 2004 7:59 am

If it were me, I would be inclined to keep:
Todd Helton $22.00. Might stand a chance at NL MVP

Bobby Abreu $18.50. Consistant stats acc Ross the board

Jimmy Rollins $6.50. SS can be a tough position to find and supposedly he is going to stop trying to hit for power.

Paul LoDuca $6.00. You can detect that I would not keep Piazza and you need someone you can plug into Catcher.

Hideo Nomo $5.00. Might be considered the LA ace.

Trevor Hoffman $4.50. One of the best closers in MLB at a bargain price.

Jason Phillips $3.00. Everyone in NY says he'll become a stud.

Austin Kearns $2.50. Was an early round pick last year. At the price it looks good.

Josh Beckett $2.50. WS MVP

Jerome Williams $2.50. Big expectations in SF.

Dontrelle Willis $2.50. Hopefully will improve fron late season swoon.

Vincente Padilla $2.50. He's always well thought of was highly touted last year at this time.

Junior Spivey $1.50. If he can get back towards 2002 numbers it will be a bargain.

You would have a 5 man rotation. 2/3 of your outfield and the entire IF covered. I left out Smoltz, just seems like a lot to pay in what may be a rebuilding season for the team, Piazza, very expensive with your cap, and Aramis, always seems to be a potential guy who takes too many days off, even when he's playing.

This leaves you $50.5 to spend on the rest of the team.

My only reluctance is having 2 1Bs but there seems to be good reasons. Good luck.

minor league rover Joined: Jan 28, 2004 Posts: 20

Phillips (NYM) also qualifies at catcher in my league.

Posted: Wed Jan 28, 2004 9:10 am

All the better, you could use him as C and dump LoDuca. Maybe use Bo Hart as insurance in case Spivey doesn't work out.

minor league rover Joined: Jan 13, 2004 Posts: 14

Cheap and Good: 8 @ $25.50 total
Spivey, Junior 2B ARI $1.50 2004
- not a big fan myself but at $1.50 he's a taker; 2B is a very thin position
Kearns, Austin RF CIN $2.50 2005
- healthy or not, a steal at $2.5
Beckett, Josh SP FLA $2.50 2004
Nomo, Hideo SP LA $5.00 2004
Padilla, Vicente SP PHI $4.50 2004
Hoffman, Trevor RP SD $4.50 2005
- SD has a much improved offense
Williams, Jerome SP SF $2.50 2005
- great pitchers park
Willis, Dontrelle SP FLA $2.50 2005

Undervalued: 2 @ $10.50
Ramirez, Aramis 3B CHC $7.50 2004
- played with a bad ankle in 02; showed he was at full strength in 2003
Phillips, Jason L. 1B NYM $3.00 2005
- should get playing time at catcher and 1B; solid batting eye (high OBP)

Fair Value:
Helton, Todd 1B COL $22.00 2004
Abreu, Bobby RF PHI $18.50 2005
Rollins, Jimmy SS PHI $6.50 2004
Smoltz, John RP ATL $13.00 2005
Piazza, Mike C NYM $16.00 2004

Potential steal
Eaton, Adam SP SD $2.00 2004
Eaton has a full year under his belt after Tommy John surgery and he should put up better numbers in 2004.

Pass:
Hart, Bo 2B STL $1.00 2005
- decent average with single digit power and virtually no speed
Duca, Paul Lo C LA $6.00 2004
- with Jason Phillips on your squad, no real need for Lo Duca

I'd take all of the "Cheap and Good" and "Undervalued." That leaves you with 3 left to take from the Fair Value. I'd agree with Tim on the remaining three Choices of Helton, Abreu and Rollins. Piazza is too much of a healthy risk at $16 and the position transition may affect his offensive output. Smoltz will put up great numbers but there are cheaper closers to be had.

Total dollars spent: $73
Dollars remaining: $57 for 11 remaining players

Posted: Wed Jan 28, 2004 12:07 pm

Hitters to Keep
Ramirez, Aramis 3B CHC $7.50- A great 3B at a reasonable price.
Piazza, Mike C NYM $16.00- The best NL catcher by far. He wont get injured again now that hes going to play some 1B.
Phillips, Jason L. 1B NYM $3.00- Good price here. If Piazza does go down, this guy can fill in.
Spivey, Junior 2B ARI $1.50- Not a great 2B, but a very good price for his talent.
Abreu, Bobby RF PHI $18.50- A threat in every category. Price is fair.
Kearns, Austin RF CIN $2.50- Great player for a low price.

Pitchers to Keep
Beckett, Josh SP FLA $2.50- Good guy, good price.
Eaton, Adam SP SD $2.00- A lot of potential here.
Nomo, Hideo SP LA $5.00- Awesome pitcher, awesome price.
Smoltz, John RP ATL $13.00- One of the best closers. Closers are very valuable, especially in an NL only format.
Williams, Jerome SP SF $2.50- Not a bad pitcher.
Padilla, Vicente SP PHI $4.50- Good pitcher, good rpice.
Hoffman, Trevor RP SD $4.50- Same with Smoltz, but cheaper.

People to Drop
Helton, Todd 1B COL $22.00- Frankly, hes too expensive for my tastes. He would take up 17% of your payroll, which is too high for me.
Duca, Paul Lo C LA $6.00- LoDuca isnt going to be that great this year. You have better options for a C.
Hart, Bo 2B STL $1.00- Hart isnt good. Grab Spivey for only $.50 more.
Rollins, Jimmy SS PHI $6.50- Way overpriced if you ask me. Rollins has a very poor average, among other stats.
Willis, Dontrelle SP FLA $2.50- I dont buy into the whole Willis thing. Releasing him might be a good idea b/c someone in your league is bound to overpay for him. Which does benefeit your team.

Overall- 49$ spent on hitting and 34$ spent on pitching. This leaves you with 47$ to spend on another 11 players. You would want to concentrate on offense. Maybe sign a very good SP and then look for bargains. Its up to you though.

Moderator Joined: Dec 11, 2003 Posts: 2165

Dont drop Willis or Helton. I dont really like Willis but someone should want to pay a pretty Penny to get him.

Posted: Wed Jan 28, 2004 1:31 pm

when you say 14 Hitters, what positions do you staff? CI, MI, UT, etc?

I'd say at least one of those catchers can go...preferably Piazza at that price.

minor league rover Joined: Jan 28, 2004 Posts: 20

The hitter positions are: 2C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, MI, CI, 5OF, DH.

Posted: Wed Jan 28, 2004 2:17 pm

2C?? Def go with Piazza!

Posted: Wed Jan 28, 2004 3:16 pm

Based on your rosters, I'd say Piazza's worth holding onto.

minor league rover Joined: Jan 28, 2004 Posts: 20

Who would be your other 12 keepers rotochamp?

Posted: Wed Jan 28, 2004 3:55 pm

You have 18 guys listed and 24 on your team - are the others keepers or are you putting them back - it helps to know what your strengths are and your weaknesses are on the team - if you are already keeping those 6 it will make a big difference and if you are putting some players back it could also make a difference on who we choose...you know this --- put up your whole team and then we can make a fully informed decision - I don't even know if 130 is all of your cap money --- maybe if you are putting those 6 back we may think that there are better options than the ones you give us too/

minor league rover Joined: Jan 28, 2004 Posts: 20

Those are the 18 guys who would possibly be a keeper in my mind. The rest of my team (as of last year) are stiffs that I wouldn't even consider keeping or year ending contracts. The pools total salary is $130. Hope this helps.

Posted: Wed Jan 28, 2004 4:24 pm

If it were my team, I'd probably go like this:

Waive
1) SP - Vicente Padilla
2) C - Mike Piazza
3) 2B - Bo Hart
4) RP - Smoltz
5) RP - Hoffman

And here's why
1) Padilla's an decent SP, but I've always operated on the belief that you can find decent sleepers at pitcher, the position just turns over enough. This means that you need to pay attention during the season a bit and make good Choices on your mid-season acquisitions.

2) Piazza is a tough call with the depth required at catcher in your league. But he's also a monster salary. I just feel that you could likely get him cheaper if you were to let him go and bid on him again. It's a risk, but that's the fun of it Mr. Green

3) Hart just because he's replacement level. You have Todd Walker coming over to the NL and you could possibly bid on him. I'm not a big Hart guy and I think you could do just as well bidding on a replacement.

4) Smoltz - Smoltz has that elbow thing going and that's scary...especially at that salary. Closers is THE most volatile role in baseball and you can get cheap saves elsewhere.

5) Hoffman - because he's coming off injury but also because if you're going to waive one closer you may as well waive the other. Now the flip side to that is that if you don't end up getting another decent closer in the biding and hold onto Hoffman, he becomes valuable trade bait. There's almost always someone in your league willing to pay the going rate for saves (which is far too much). If you don't go Hoffman, you could also go Eaton. Sure he'll get you K's, but he won't get you ERA or WHIP. He threw 182IP last season, shortly removed from a serious injury to his arm/shoulder. That's scary with a kid that young...much like Gil Meche. He's cheap, but you could probably replace him with an equal or better pitcher at the same cost.

But that's just my opinion. Hope that helps.