3rd Pick in a keeper draft

Posted: Sat Feb 11, 2006 10:03 am

yin_xu88 wrote:

Shagggy wrote:

in a real stats league pitching wins,at 26 santana is the best arm available,at 26,with over 200k,20 wins he should be a top pick

if im picking 3rd,it means i have a late pick in the 2nd rd,there will be a ton of bats available in the mid-late 2nd,how many cy young winners will be there?

maybe your league favors pitching more, but in rotto and head-head leagues drafting Satana 3rd is just plain dumb. With a 3rd pick you can get an elite hitter and if you really want a pitcher, you can get someone like Peavy(whoes just as good as Santana) on your way back. Santana plays once every five games, hitters play every day. Also how do you know he'll win 20? He only won 16 last year.

plus, did Cy Young winners, Carpenter and Colon get drafted after the 2nd round last year? you bet.

Yin_Xu is dead on the money with assuming a decline from 20 wins and even 200k's. Santana is one of the very few who have maintained a KO rate like his for two years back to back. You have to assume only 30% of the hitter group will maintain it's numbers and for pitching it's even worse. For pitching, assume only 25% will maintain and for wins knock them down to 20% - that's vol-a-tile. The value for both hitters and pitchers is catching someone at a lower draft pick or bid who has a breakout year or exceeds their cost. Again, what you're really looking for is value and that's why such things as the LIMA plan, rookie/breakout scouting, rankings, and projections exist, in order to make better decisions on just who the value players are.

Stability is the other factor you need and that's where everyone spends the money. Some of us may invest a modest 15% or one fairly high pick on a rookie or breakout candidate hoping he exceeds even that value, but stablility in production is the major component for a winning team. Pitching is the most volatile of the two and neither has good stability versus regression.

There are some very interesting articles lately on recent and past stat regression demonstrating said philosphy:

"The Year After" by Baseball Notebook's David Luciani

and (I couldn't find the new article that just came by Shandler out, so here is an older one)

"The Great Myths of Projetive Accuracy" by Baseball Forecaster's Ron Shandler.

Posted: Sat Feb 11, 2006 10:18 am

yin did not say that,all he said was he had 16 wins last year and went on to compare that with fartolo and carpenter

santana was great home and away,in the 2nd half he was

9-2 1.59 era in 15 starts 107 ip-75 h 95 k

if not for a slow start the cy was his again and it wouldnt surprise me to see him win the cy again this year

i agree big bats are nice to have but i also believe having one of the best arms in the majors whose 26 isnt such a bad choice to build around

Posted: Sat Feb 11, 2006 10:22 am

Shagggy wrote:

thanks for the attempt to educate me on how to draft but get more info before making another very UNeducated reply

now, let's not get personal.

Posted: Sat Feb 11, 2006 10:29 am

You're right that's not what Yin said. I was softening the words a lil' and running with a "why" of choosing hitting versus pitching.

There is no argument that Santana is one of the stable ones, but again he wouldn't be my choice at the cost of a third or even fourth pick. He's still at 75% risk of regression versus an elite hitter who is only at a 70% risk of regression. I'd target someone like Oswalt a little lower when things get back around or wait all together. I like waiting until after the fifth to seventh round and, if it's not a draft, I use a combo of the LIMA and Luciani's 68% of projected cost philosphies.

Posted: Sat Feb 11, 2006 10:43 am

if you could guarantee santana's stat line he probably is #3. but you can't. a lot of people just don't like building a team around a pitcher, and i'm one of them.

i still say cabrera.

Posted: Sat Feb 11, 2006 10:45 am

i play in a prepetual league where you set a actual lineup,you must know what all arms do vs lhb/rhb,you must know what all bats do vs lhp/rhp,you have to set your bullpen with hooks,you actually manage a team,you must know who was just drafted out of highschool/college

so my point was the long term value of a 33 yr old pitcher compared to a 26 year old is light years apart and if i was building a team from scratch i would want the best/most dependable young starter who i THOUGHT would give me the best stats

ive said it before on this site and ill say it again,,we are giving opinions and the fun of it is hearing others views,you or i may think a opinion is wrong or DUMB but i still respect and enjoy hearing and offering a different prespective

opinions are like farts,we all have them but so few smell like roses

Posted: Sat Feb 11, 2006 10:49 am

OPEC wrote:

if you could guarantee santana's stat line he probably is #3. but you can't. a lot of people just don't like building a team around a pitcher, and i'm one of them.

i still say cabrera.

great choice,if thats how you choose to build,if i could guarantee anything i would win the lottery and be laying on a nude beach with a lovely lady serving me drinks with umbrellas,lol

nothing is guaranteed in baseball but we all go with a gut feeling

Bat Boy Joined: Feb 03, 2006 Posts: 4

Shagggy wrote:

the question was its a new league and what players would be best to build a team,the choices A-Rod and Puljos are no brainers so for pick 3?

fartolo will be 33 in may and his only career year with a era under 3 was in 2k2,where it was a very average 2.83,last year he had a very average 3.48

carpenter is a huge injury risk,he had a good year,with a brutal finish and is chasing 31

thats why both of them were picked late

Santana's a fantasy stud pitcher who is 26

thanks for the attempt to educate me on how to draft but get more info before making another very UNeducated reply

what the hell are you talking about? I wasnt saying that you should draft Carpenter or Colon before Santana. The only reason why I mentioned Carp and Colon was in response to you asking how many cy young winners will be avaliable in the 2nd round. You dont have to be an ass about it and say my reponse was uneducated.

Manager Joined: Feb 02, 2004 Posts: 56

OPEC, nice choice on Miggy. I think in a keeper, Miggy is the overwhelming pick at 3, and really, i would consider him at 2 to a extent, over ARod, who will face a decline soon. But lats say Miggy is 3rd, Wright would be my 4th, Crawford my 5th, Santana or Tex 6 or 7th. Pitching is riskier no doubt, but Santana is the one sp, who's a 1st round pick. Bay is right there at 6 or 7 too.

General Manager Joined: Nov 15, 2004 Posts: 276

HOOTIE wrote:

Ross, a player can still hit hrs in a pitchers park. They usually hit better on road however. No matter how many they do hit, the park still works against them.

Regarding Soriano. Yes, most expected a increase when he went to Texas. But he completely quit hitting on road. I suspect, as some others do, that he peaked early, and already is in a decline mode. He's still a top 5 2b, but his days of 35 hrs are over, unless he was still in a hr park like Texas. He's going to have to hit alot of road hrs, to reach the 34 projection. Even if he hits 20 road hrs, 9 more then last year, he still would need 14 RFK hrs. Guillen, a tad better hitter, only managed 3 at RFK. I just don't see 34, or 30.

19HRs and its not even June.....Im looking right so far, but we'll see still have 4 more months of baseball left.

Posted: Wed May 31, 2006 8:26 pm

I gotta go with Miggy Cabrera or Jason Bay. I like them both equally, though Cabrera might get you a higher average and has better offensive talent around him.