I have the #8 pick in a 5x5...

Bat Boy Joined: Apr 04, 2006 Posts: 7

...and I'd like some input on who you've seen going at the spot. I'm leaning toward Utley at the moment.

Posted: Tue Mar 20, 2007 2:34 pm

How many teams are in the league?

Bat Boy Joined: Apr 04, 2006 Posts: 7

It's a mixed 14 team league.

Posted: Tue Mar 20, 2007 3:17 pm

My top 8 would probably be:

1) Pujols
2) Reyes
3) Soriano
4) Johan
5) Cabrera
6) Howard
7) Beltran
Cool

Ortiz

And I'd just take the top ranked guy from that list. Then, on the come back, look for Sizemore, Holiday, or Berkman. That should give you a very nice power or balanced start on offense.

Posted: Tue Mar 20, 2007 3:37 pm

I think A-Rod should be #5 (maybe higher). My top 10 in order are Pujols, Reyes, Soriano, Santana, A-Rod, Howard, Ortiz, Crawford, Utley and Cabrera

Posted: Tue Mar 20, 2007 4:03 pm

I have ARod around 9 or 10 myself...I'll take the pure HR power of Howard and Ortiz, and the BA of Cabrera over ARod.

Also, Crawford's battling some injuries that have us a little worried about the power output for this year, which hits his value a bit.

I guess another piece of information that's good to know is what the roster setup is. Generally, 3B is deep enough to wait on. OF depends on how many your league fields. If it's 5OF, I go OF early at least once.

Bat Boy Joined: Apr 04, 2006 Posts: 7

Thanks for the replies. Our lineup only requires 3 OF, so I think I can wait to fill that position. I'm not that high on Crawford anyway even if he is available. If ARod drops to me at #8 I'll jump all over it, but I doubt that will happen here in NY. In general I think 3B is another really deep position this year, and for that reason I'd pass on Cabrera that early - and I should mention that we use OBP instead of BA, so Cabrera's high average is less of a difference maker. Right now I figure my choice is between Utley and Ortiz.

Manager Joined: Mar 15, 2007 Posts: 87

Ortiz's best 3 years:

94 41 130 0 .301
119 47 148 1 .300
115 54 137 1 .287

Howard's 1 year

104 58 149 0 .313

A-Rod's AVERAGE year:

122 42 121 21 .305, which includes:

133 52 135 18 .318
125 57 142 9 .300
124 48 130 21 .321
(All within the last 6 seasons)

So, saying you'll take the raw homerun power of Ortiz over ARod is a bit...ridiculous, especially considering they're the same age. Howard might be a different story, but we've only got one and change seasons to go on. Howard's 27, and has 82 big league homers. ARod had about 270 when he hit 27.

Bat Boy Joined: Apr 04, 2006 Posts: 7

I agree - I don't know how ARod is dropping out of the top 5 in any draft. Like I said, I'd be ecstatic if he was at #8 for me.

Roto Guru Joined: Feb 24, 2005 Posts: 2026 Location: CA

If you pass on Miggy Cabrera at #8 then you should not be allowed to draft.

Posted: Wed Mar 21, 2007 12:27 am

Berg wrote:

and I should mention that we use OBP instead of BA, so Cabrera's high average is less of a difference maker. Right now I figure my choice is between Utley and Ortiz.

Yeah, that would've been good to know. In that case, I would definitely recommend Cabrera at #8 if he's there. We're projecting him at a .426 OBP this coming year and he's a Top 5 player in our estimation. If he's around at 8, I take him.

Posted: Wed Mar 21, 2007 12:37 am

kmayville wrote:

Ortiz's best 3 years:

94 41 130 0 .301
119 47 148 1 .300
115 54 137 1 .287

Howard's 1 year

104 58 149 0 .313

A-Rod's AVERAGE year:

122 42 121 21 .305, which includes:

133 52 135 18 .318
125 57 142 9 .300
124 48 130 21 .321
(All within the last 6 seasons)

So, saying you'll take the raw homerun power of Ortiz over ARod is a bit...ridiculous, especially considering they're the same age. Howard might be a different story, but we've only got one and change seasons to go on. Howard's 27, and has 82 big league homers. ARod had about 270 when he hit 27.

Perhaps my wording wasn't the best, but that wasn't really proven here.

Nice selective picks there for ARod though. Note that two of them came while playing in a hitters park in Texas and only one of the three has come since he's been in NY. But that's a nice job of tailoring your stats to your argument while ignoring those that don't fit it.

Is he a Top 10 pick? Yes, no doubt. But we've also got Ortiz projected for 57HR and ARod for 37HR. That's a pretty significant difference and was more along the lines of what I was talking about.

As for Cabrera over Rodriguez, I'll take the 20-30 points of extra OBP, even if ARod might steal a half dozen more bases.

But that's just me...it's your team, do as you please.

General Manager Joined: Feb 24, 2004 Posts: 203

I got Miggy at 12 in my draft Very Happy

Manager Joined: Mar 15, 2007 Posts: 87

The 3 best years for ARod were selective, but they weren't really my point. My point was more that an average year of A-Rod is as valuable as any of the best years from Ortiz. Just comparing the last 3 years, we get:

Ortix: 106 47 138 1 .296
A-Rod: 116 40 119 21 .299

So, comparing a stretch that has Ortiz' three best seasons to one that has 2 of A-Rod's worst...they're basically a wash...7 HR and 19 RBI for Ortiz to 10 Runs, 20 SB and a few ticks of average for A-Rod.

As far as projections go, you could be right. I'd put Ortiz more in the 48-50 HR range than 57, and A-Rod 38-42. In Boston he's had steadily declining numbers of doubles compensated for by a slightly smaller increase in HR. His slugging had been a steady .600ish before the big jump last year. I just don't see a 57 HR/20 double season. I think he was swinging more for the longball last year trying to overcompensate for Ramirez having a down year and the top of the order..well, sucking I suppose would be the best word.

Posted: Wed Mar 21, 2007 6:47 pm

IMO get Crawford whenever you can. I don't buy the injury stuff.

He'll steal 50+ bases and might even chip in with 25+ homers.