Need A Laugh?

Moderator Joined: Dec 11, 2003 Posts: 2165

On man's top 100 prospects

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Of note;

Scott Baker, Zach Duke > King Felix

Marcus Thames (a 29 year old reserve OF) at 57 wtf?

Quote:

A friend of mine remarked to me recently that he heard that I was "low on Felix Hernandez" and I responded by admitting that I ranked him as low as #13 (on the pitcher's list) a year ago. My response was that instead of the seven Cy Young awards most expect he's going to win before he's through, I see him winning only two or three.

What the hell?

Prozakk's been giving him the good stuff it seems.

Posted: Sun Dec 18, 2005 3:26 am

Ok, I read though that load of crap, and I think this guy must be on some good stuff. I saw some people at my high school reunion who were burnt out, but this guy could rival any of them.

Posted: Sun Dec 18, 2005 6:32 am

adichiara wrote:

What the hell?

Prozakk's been giving him the good stuff it seems.

Well, I dunno bout you, but he's my pusha, so yeah Thumbs Up

As for that list, wow that is pretty bad... but everyone is entitled to their own opinions and i would love to have guys like that in my league...

Posted: Sun Dec 18, 2005 7:12 am

actually guys, you may not agree with the list, but David Luciani is one of the very best in the industry at running statistical forcasting. In addition he regularly scouts alot of these minor leaguers in person as opposed to reading about them.

His statistical modeling algorithms are at the top of the industry, and he has a very good track record of successful forecasting, as successfull as forecasting baseball stats can be.

I know a favorite pasttime of fantasy players is to put down the experts and to say how you could do a better job if given the opportunity, but the fact is this guy knows alot more about evaluating baseball player futures than probably anyone reading this post, including myself.

It is very easy to deride other peoples published opinions, but just because the guy has the guts to put out lists that don't always agree with baseball america does not mean his list is any less valid. When you look back at his list 10 years from now, you will probably find as many hits and misses as any other pro scouting list. The problem is that none of you will keep this list and do a comparision in 10 years, so you can safely ridicule it now, knowing you will never be asked to prove your opinion down the road.

Posted: Sun Dec 18, 2005 7:37 am

I just find it a bit strange that John Sickels, Scott Rex, BA, and a few other sites are at least on the same page for what are considered elite prospects.

Yet Luciani has Carlos Quentin at 64 and Mike Carp at 9. Now I have never seen either of these guys play, but I would be willing to put down a dollar or two on Quentin over Carp.

To me Luciani loses some credibility when he doesn't rank King Felix in the top 10 because he thinks he will win "only" 2 or 3 Cy Youngs instead of 6 or 7. I think that a pitcher that will win more than one Cy Young should be ranked in the top 10.

I'm curious what his actual track record is. He admitted on his site that he missed the boat on Pujols just like everone else did.

Moderator Joined: Dec 11, 2003 Posts: 2165

rotochamp1 wrote:

actually guys, you may not agree with the list, but David Luciani is one of the very best in the industry at running statistical forcasting. In addition he regularly scouts alot of these minor leaguers in person as opposed to reading about them.

His statistical modeling algorithms are at the top of the industry, and he has a very good track record of successful forecasting, as successfull as forecasting baseball stats can be.

I know a favorite pasttime of fantasy players is to put down the experts and to say how you could do a better job if given the opportunity, but the fact is this guy knows alot more about evaluating baseball player futures than probably anyone reading this post, including myself.

It is very easy to deride other peoples published opinions, but just because the guy has the guts to put out lists that don't always agree with baseball america does not mean his list is any less valid. When you look back at his list 10 years from now, you will probably find as many hits and misses as any other pro scouting list. The problem is that none of you will keep this list and do a comparision in 10 years, so you can safely ridicule it now, knowing you will never be asked to prove your opinion down the road.

What is Marcus Thames doing on a prospects list?

If Felix is going to win three Cy Youngs, shouldn't he be at the top of the list?

Posted: Sun Dec 18, 2005 8:52 am

The way he ranks players has several components.

First off he has built models of how different types of players have had their careers develop. It accounts for things like environment, age, physical build, progress rate, etc.

I don't know all the details but I know that his system actually forcasts the development of the entire career picture, even forcasting in about what season a player will reach milestone numbers in AVG, HR, and SB ability.

Part of his rankings not only factor in how good the player will be, but how long they will maintain it. Some players forcast to age well, and some forcast to rise fast and burn out early. His rankings favor players with longer forcasted careers of success. This element more than any other is probably what surpresses the pitcher rankings in the overall scheme.

Now do I agree that Duke and Baker will have better careers than Felix, even if by a little, no I don't. But do I believe there might be a reasonable chance that he is right, sure there is. He may have injury concerns on Felix. And keep in mind that he has Felix, Duke, and Baker all within one point on the rankings, so basically they are ranked the same.

I can't tell you why Thames ranks on the list as he does, but apparently something in his profile says the skill set is there.

Look, I am not saying the list is flawless, what I am saying is that this guy has a whole lot more information at his disposal, and has done alot more research than anyone on this message board on the subject. He has been publishing projections for over 13 years if I remember right, and people have been paying for his product the whole time. And not only does he produce pre-season forcasts, he provides updated remaining season projections all season long.

All I know is that every year fantasy players want to see lists of rankings and prospects, but whenever someone makes a forcast different from other publications, people ridicule it rather than looking at it as an opportunity for new information, or a new look at something.

More often than not, fantasy players just want to see lists that validate their own opinion. Unless you personally are carrying out very extensive statistical analysis I think it is bad form to suggest that David Luciani, Ron Shandler, or anyone at Baseball Prospectus are smoking something when they publish an opinion you don't understand.

Quote:

I just find it a bit strange that John Sickels, Scott Rex, BA, and a few other sites are at least on the same page for what are considered elite prospects.

Don't you think the lists should actually be pretty different among these guys? I mean considering the failure rate of players, don't you think that the reason all these guys have similar lists is because of:

1. the hype machine
2. scouts talk players up to each other
3. laziness results in stealing thoughts from other writers.

I mean if those list really did make up all the next great players and rarely missed, I would agree that Luciani's list should be the same, but that isn't what happens.

Another difference is that Luciani's list is a blend heavy sabermetrics with some scouting used to validate what the numbers say. Many other lists are heavy scouting with some supporting sabermetrics used. Now I am not saying one list is better than another, but I am saying perhaps you should use both lists and look at players unique to one list or the other and make your own opinion on the player.

All I am saying is that I don't think anyone here is qualified to say Luciani is smoking crack, or that his list is any less valid than John Sickels.

Don't get the wrong idea from this post, I am not saying Luciani's list is better, I am just saying you can't judge a prospect list until a decade down the line. Until then just consider it another educated opinion.

Posted: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:17 am

It would be interesting to see one of his lists from 10 years ago (say a top 50 or 100) and compare it to a Sickels or BA list from the same time.

You are probably right that there would be hits and misses on both lists.

It still amazes me that Pujols wasn't even considered an elite prospect. I remember I was in a few ESPN leagues his rookie year and he was a FA for quite a while before everyone started realizing he was really that good.

It very definitely is an inexact science.

Posted: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:26 am

Here's an interesting article.

http://www.johnbenson.com/stars.html

Posted: Sun Dec 18, 2005 10:12 am

Here's a couple of lists from 1996
Baseball America followed by Spring Training Magazine

Here's an interesting study that tracks how BA top 100 prospects have done throughout the years.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2005/3/9/15148/68063

1. Andruw Jones, of, Braves
2. Paul Wilson, rhp, Mets
3. Ruben Rivera, of, Yankees
4. Darin Erstad, of, Angels
5. Alan Benes, rhp, Cardinals
6. Derek Jeter, ss, Yankees
7. Karim Garcia, of, Dodgers
8. Livan Hernandez, rhp, Marlins
9. Vladimir Guerrero, of, Expos
10. Ben Davis, c, Padres
11. Jason Schmidt, rhp, Braves
12. Matt Drews, rhp, Yankees
13. Derrick Gibson, of, Rockies
14. Billy Wagner, lhp, Astros
15. Bartolo Colon, rhp, Indians
16. Kerry Wood, rhp, Cubs
17. Rey Ordonez, ss, Mets
18. Chan Ho Park, rhp, Dodgers
19. Rocky Coppinger, rhp, Orioles
20. Richard Hidalgo, of, Astros
21. Jay Payton, of, Mets
22. Todd Walker, 3b, Twins
23. Jose Cruz Jr., of, Mariners
24. Jim Pittsley, rhp, Royals
25. Jeff D'Amico, rhp, Brewers
26. Jason Kendall, c, Pirates
27. Scott Rolen, 3b, Phillies
28. Donnie Sadler, ss, Red Sox
29. Bob Abreu, of, Astros
30. Jermaine Dye, of, Braves
31. Jaime Jones, of, Marlins
32. Todd Helton, 1b, Rockies
33. Edgar Renteria, ss, Marlins
34. Jaret Wright, rhp, Indians
35. Jeff Suppan, rhp, Red Sox
36. Nomar Garciaparra, ss, Red Sox
37. Ben Grieve, of, Athletics
38. Jimmy Haynes, rhp, Orioles
39. Trot Nixon, of, Red Sox
40. Marty Janzen, rhp, Blue Jays
41. Derrek Lee, 1b, Padres
42. Paul Konerko, 1b, Dodgers
43. Alex Ochoa, of, Mets
44. Todd Hollandsworth, of, Dodgers
45. Andy Yount, rhp, Red Sox
46. Shannon Stewart, of, Blue Jays
47. Brooks Kieschnick, of, Cubs
48. Ugueth Urbina, rhp, Expos
49. Geoff Jenkins, of, Brewers
50. Richie Sexson, 1b, Indians
51. Jason Varitek, c, Mariners
52. Chris Snopek, 3b, White Sox
53. Dustin Hermanson, rhp, Padres
54. Chad Hermansen, ss, Pirates
55. Andrew Vessel, of Rangers
56. Matt Morris, rhp, Cardinals
57. Roger Cedeno, of, Dodgers
58. Jose Valentin, c, Twins
59. Todd Greene, c, Angels
60. Pokey Reese, ss, Reds
61. Wilton Guerrero, ss, Dodgers
62. Mike Drumright, rhp, Tigers
63. Neifi Perez, ss, Rockies
64. Terrell Wade, lhp, Braves
65. Enrique Wilson, ss, Indians
66. Jamey Wright, rhp, Rockies
67. Jay Powell, rhp, Marlins
68. Brad Fullmer, 1b-3b, Expos
69. Doug Million, lhp, Rockies
70. LaTroy Hawkins, rhp, Twins
71. Steve Gibralter, of, Reds
72. Shawn Estes, lhp, Giants
73. Hiram Bocachica, ss, Expos
74. Carlos Guillen, ss, Astros
75. Robert Smith, 3b, Braves
76. Dan Serafini, lhp, Twins
77. Scott Elarton, rhp, Astros
78. Brian Rose, rhp, Red Sox
79. Luis Castillo, 2b, Marlins
80. Julio Santana, rhp, Rangers
81. Antone Williamson, 3b, Brewers
82. Chris Carpenter, rhp, Blue Jays
83. Glendon Rusch, lhp, Royals
84. John Wasdin, rhp, Athletics
85. Brad Rigby, rhp, Athletics
86. Danny Graves, rhp, Indians
87. Steve Cox, 1b, Athletics
88. Miguel Tejeda, ss, Athletics
89. Desi Relaford, 2b, Mariners
90. Trey Beamon, of, Pirates
91. Jeff Abbott, of, White Sox
92. Gabe Alvarez, ss, Padres
93. Jose Pett, rhp, Blue Jays
94. Preston Wilson, of, Mets
95. Damon Hollins, of, Braves
96. Joe Fontenot, rhp, Giants
97. John Frascatore, rhp, Cardinals
98. Michael Coleman, of, Red Sox
99. Billy Percibal, rhp, Orioles
100. Josh Booty, 3b, Marlins

1 Paul Wilson RHP Mets 3-28-73
2 Andruw Jones OF Braves 4-23-77 R
3 Darin Erstad OF Angels 6-04-74 L
4 Rubin Rivera OF Yankees 11-14-73 R
5 Alan Benes RHP Cardinals 1-21-72
6 Derek Jeter SS Yankees 6-26-74 R
7 Vladimir Guerrero OF Expos 2-09-76 R
8 Ben Davis C Padres 3-10-77 S
9 Bartolo Colon RHP Indians 5-24-75
10 Billy Wagner LHP Astros 7-25-71
11 Karim Garcia OF Dodgers 10-29-75 L
12 Todd Walker 3B Twins 5-25-73 L
13 Matt Drews RHP Yankees 8-29-74
14 Javier Valentin C Twins 9-19-75 S
15 Alan Embree LHP Indians 1-23-70
16 Bob Abreu OF Astros 3-11-74 L
17 Jeff Suppan RHP Red Sox 1-02-75
18 Jason Schmidt RHP Braves 1-29-73
19 Jamie Jones OF Marlins 8-02-76 L
20 Jermaine Dye OF Braves 1-28-74 R
21 Ugueth Urbina RHP Expos 2-15-74
22 Jay Payton OF Mets 11-22-72 R
23 Chad Hermansen SS Pirates 9-10-77 R
24 Luis Andujar RHP White Sox 11-22-72
25 Trey Beamon OF Pirates 2-11-74 L
26 Jeff D'Amico RHP Brewers 12-27-75
27 Derrick Gibson OF Rockies 2-05-75 R
28 Rocky Coppinger RHP Orioles 3-19-74
29 Jason Kendall C Pirates 6-26-74 R
30 Jose Cruz Jr. OF Mariners 4-19-74 S
31 Jimmy Haynes RHP Orioles 9-05-72
32 Ben Grieve OF Athletics 5-04-76 L
33 Terrell Wade LHP Braves 1-25-73
34 Nomar Garciaparra SS Red Sox 7-23-73 R
35 Roger Cedeno OF Dodgers 8-16-74 S
36 Scott Rolen 3B Phillies 4-04-75 R
37 Derrek Lee 1B Padres 9-06-75 R
38 Edgar Renteria SS Marlins 8-07-75 R
39 Jim Pittsley RHP Royals 4-03-74
40 Mike Drumright RHP Tigers 4-19-74
41 Jason Varitek C Mariners 4-11-72 S
42 Glendon Rusch LHP Royals 11-07-74
43 Todd Greene C Angels 5-08-71 R
44 Jose Guillen OF Pirates 5-14-76 R
45 Bret Wagner LHP Athletics 4-17-73
46 Richie Sexson 1B Indians 12-29-74 R
47 Andy Yount RHP Red Sox 2-14-77
48 Pokey Reese SS Reds 6-10-73 R
49 Rey Ordonez SS Mets 1-11-72 S
50 LaTroy Hawkins RHP Twins 12-21-72
51 Alex Ochoa OF Mets 3-29-72 R
52 Rafael Orellano LHP Red Sox 4-28-73
53 Richard Hidalgo OF Astros 7-02-75 R
54 Trot Nixon OF Boston 4-11-74 L
55 Kerry Wood RHP Cubs 6-16-77
56 James Baldwin RHP White Sox 7-15-71
57 Neifi Perez SS Rockies 6-02-75 S
58 Steve Gibralter OF Reds 10-09-72 R
59 Tony Mounce LHP Astros 2-08-75
60 Todd Hollandsworth OF Dodgers 4-20-73 L
61 Robert Smith 3B Atlanta 4-10-74 R
62 Edgard Velazquez OF Rockies 12-15-73 R
63 Brian Barber RHP Cardinals 3-04-73
64 Jay Powell RHP Marlins 1-09-72
65 Jose Pett RHP Blue Jays 1-08-76
66 Shannon Stewart OF Blue Jays 2-25-74 R
67 Luis Castillo 2B Marlins 9-12-75 R
68 Ray Ricken RHP Yankees 8-11-73
69 George Arias 3B Angels 3-12-72 R
70 Tony Clark 1B Tigers 6-15-72 S
71 Arquimedez Pozo 3B Mariners 8-24-73 R
72 Jaret Wright RHP Indians 12-29-75
73 Quinton McCracken OF Rockies 3-16-70 S
74 Desi Relaford SS Mariners 9-16-73 S
75 John Wasdin RHP Athletics 8-05-72
76 Donnie Sadler SS Red Sox 6-17-75 R
77 Raul Casanova C Padres 8-24-72 S
78 Geoff Jenkins OF Brewers 7-21-74 L
79 Todd Helton 1B Rockies 8-20-73 L
80 Jose Herrera OF Athletics 8-30-72 L
81 Chan Ho Park RHP Dodgers 6-30-73
82 Chris Fussell RHP Orioles 5-19-76
83 Doug Million LHP Rockies 10-13-75
84 Dante Powell OF Giants 8-25-73 R
85 Steve Cox 1B Athletics 10-31-74 L
86 Enrique Wilson SS Indians 7-27-75 S
87 Jamey Wright RHP Rockies 12-24-74
88 Matt Morris RHP Cardinals 8-09-74
89 Glenn Williams SS Braves 7-18-77 S
90 Danny Graves RHP Indians 8-07-73
91 Sergio Nunez 2B Royals 1-03-75 R
92 Sal Fasano C Royals 8-10-71 R
93 Julio Santana RHP Rangers 1-20-73
94 Damon Hollins OF Braves 6-12-74 R
95 Jimmy Anderson LHP Pirates 1-22-76
96 Brooks Kieschnick OF Cubs 6-06-72 L
97 Will Cunnane RHP Marlins 4-24-74
98 Adam Riggs 2B Dodgers 10-04-72 R
99 Antone Williamson 3B Brewers 7-18-73 L
100 Bob Wolcott RHP Mariners 9-08-73

Moderator Joined: Dec 11, 2003 Posts: 2165

Sickels past top 'X' lists have been pretty accurate, I was surprised on how good they were.

But, I knew you were going to put up this exact arguement Heath.

I like he has put a 'different list' out there. I never ridiculed person for person ranking aside from Felix. Which I still think is fair since he's been one of the top prospects of the decade. More so, he gives ridiculous reasoning that makes him look like he has no clue what he's talking about. Nothing about his reasoning is factual persuasive. He says he had him ranked 13 (pitchers only) because he doesn't see him winning 6 CY Youngs but more like two or three. So everyone above him would win more than that? He never says anything about injury or anything. As for Thames. This is a prospect list, it's not about his skill level. He has 358 AB over four years and is 29 years old!

Posted: Sun Dec 18, 2005 11:51 am

Quote:

He says he had him ranked 13 (pitchers only) because he doesn't see him winning 6 CY Youngs but more like two or three. So everyone above him would win more than that? He never says anything about injury or anything. As for Thames. This is a prospect list, it's not about his skill level. He has 358 AB over four years and is 29 years old!

He said he ranked him 13th a year ago, but he is #3 of his pitchers list now.

His reponse was that while OTHER PEOPLE think Felix will win 6 or 7 Cy Youngs, he thinks it will be more like 3. He was using that to illustrate the difference in what his perception is versus other people's perception, that was not a statement to compare him to another player.

The problem with the Thames "prospect" issue is that while the article you are reading is called Top 100 Prospects, that list is pulled from his 'Rookie" Report. He does include a few players who are not Rookie eligible. But I can tell you why Thames rates so high. His projection for Thames if he played a full time role in 2006 would be .287 34HR.

Now if Thames does get a full time job and does hit 34HR, wouldn't you say that it was dang fortunate you picked up this list?

Posted: Sun Dec 18, 2005 11:55 am

Oh and if you think that is too good of a projection for Thames consider that Baseball Forecaster also sees the power. They say if he gets 300 At bats he would hit 20 HR. So that looks to be about the same production rate.

You will have to wait until later to get our projection for him ...

Posted: Sun Dec 18, 2005 11:58 am

It still doesn't make any sense to say that you project a player to win 2 or 3 Cy Youngs and then rank two other pitchers ahead of him.

Posted: Sun Dec 18, 2005 12:18 pm

ajones2522 wrote:

It still doesn't make any sense to say that you project a player to win 2 or 3 Cy Youngs and then rank two other pitchers ahead of him.

sure it does, if you think those players are going to have an overall better career. I think you guys are trying to take one sentence about one player and apply it to how that player relates to two other players.

Lets say Randy Johnson and Roger Clemens were both minor leaguers at the same time and I ranked Clemens ahead of Randy Johnson, but in my statement about Randy Johnson I told you he would win 5 Cy Youngs. Well that statement doesn't tell you that I believe Roger Clemens would win 7 Cy Youngs, but yet that is what my ranking of Clemens was based on. So you could not have inferred that Randy Johnson should have been the highest rated because he would have 5 Cy Youngs, without also knowing how many I think Clemens will win.

You are making assumptions about the meaning of his statement without having the necessary information to make the distinction.