Rich Hill

Posted: Sat Mar 03, 2007 11:51 pm

I just drafted him in a yahoo league with deep stats being...

wins complete games, shutouts, ERA, and Whip

I dont know the #'s off hand but I know after the last time he was called up he was nearly unhittable and was doing the same down in AAA

but I do know his stats post all star break were...
2.93/1.05 opponents BA was an amazing .205 and 79 k's in 80 innings
ohh and a 6-3 record isnt so bad in limited innings
I peeked at the rotochamps projection and it seems a bit low to me

am I missing something here?

Bat Boy Joined: Mar 01, 2007 Posts: 7

Rich Hill should do well. I don't know what rotochamps has him ranked at but I wouldn't put too much into that. This site is free, it's not like they put too much time and effort into anything they do.

Hill is a big time sleeper who should do well especially with the fact that Baker is gone and the Cubs have some good hitters.

Posted: Sun Mar 04, 2007 8:36 am

MontrealingtonDCSpos wrote:

I peeked at the rotochamps projection and it seems a bit low to me

am I missing something here?

Just some background, Rich Hill is 26 years old already (3 yrs older than Hamels, Olson, Verlander and 4 years older than Cain). He was agruably the best pitcher in the PCL the past two years.

However, he was rocked in the majors during 2005 (23 IP, 25 Hits allowed, 17 walks).

Hill was called up in May of 2006, and again, Hill had no success (19.1 IP/23 HA/15 BB). When Hill returned to the show for August and September, he did pitch very well walking only 21 batters in 12 starts covering a little less than 80 IP.

So we are looking at a pitcher who is older than a typical 'rookie starter' getting rocked in his first two call-ups to the show (while dominating AAA). Then, he finds success for the last two months of the 2006 season, and his numbers rival those that he posted in AAA.

Now that we have the background, lets look deeper into the RotoChamps projection.

6 IP/GS, 8.1 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 3.79 ERA, 1.23 WHIP

That projection is totally in line with his past performance.

The observed "low ranking" is only due to the fact that the projection is only for 25 GS. If Hill was projected to 32 GS, then his overall score (which is the ranking) would be higher.

Projections are not easy, and they take a lot of time. Guys like Hill make it tougher because he could go anywhere. It's not we are talking about Johan Santana (only 1 year older than Hill) who has a proven track record of major league success.

While this is a free site, the guys put A TON of time into these projections. There is a lot of thought put into them, and the numbers go deeper than just the sorted rankings.

Posted: Sun Mar 04, 2007 10:59 am

thanks for the stat breakdown per game...didnt catch the 25 games started part!

yeah i guess the stats are pretty much inline

I guess i was expecting him to get the 32 starts and was lookin at the stats accordingly which was my bad!

thnx for the responses

so i guess i should be happy with him as a #4 or #5 starter?

Posted: Sun Mar 04, 2007 11:19 am

MontrealingtonDCSpos wrote:

so i guess i should be happy with him as a #4 or #5 starter?

Depending on the size of the league, I would definitely be very happy with Hill on my roster.

General Manager Joined: Nov 15, 2004 Posts: 276

gunkdog wrote:

MontrealingtonDCSpos wrote:

so i guess i should be happy with him as a #4 or #5 starter?

Depending on the size of the league, I would definitely be very happy with Hill on my roster.

I like Hill, but some might say he put up the stats in the post August call up while playing against a depleated pool of players. As I know you are well aware teams throughout the league call up prospects during the last month of the season. Which might be a reason why his AAA numbers all the sudden appeared at the major league level.

Moderator Joined: Dec 11, 2003 Posts: 2165

He could emerge as the Cub's ace. Let's take a look at his history.

Drafted in the 7th round and did not sign in 2001.
Drafted in the 4th round and signed with the Cubs in 2002.

So right off the bat more than one team liked his stuff, those are high draft picks. My point? He hasn't come out of nowhere.

He was drafted out of college as a 22 year old. His K/9 was always over 10 but his BB/9 went from 9 to 7 to 4 roughly. That's pretty bad, but that's also tremendous improvement.

Throughout Hill's career in the minors he has always had a K/9 over 10 wherever he has been. He's never had a FB/HR problem in the low minors either, we'll get to that later on. So obviously his problem has always been his control, walking AT LEAST 4 per 9 IP, a lot higher at some stops.

That changed in AAA in 2005 as a 25 year old posting 1.94 BB/9 and a 12.74 K/9, tremendous. Still at Iowa in 2006 he posted a 1.89 BB/9 and 12.15 K/9, indicating consistency. Those aren't even decent control numbers, they are phenomenal. Of note though, a 1.52 HR/9 rate in 2005 is a concern. That number went all the way to .27 in 2006.

His 23 IP in the majors in 2005 is not enough of a sample size to make a decision off of, especially since it was his first cup of coffee after a long journey as a professional.

Regardless of how he did in what month in 2006 with the Cubs it all evens out, he ended up with a 8.15 k/9 and a 2.31 CMD. Very, very nice figures. Yet, the 52% FB rate is a concern. However, something that offsets that is the low LD% he posted which means he might give up a decent amount of HRs but his overall H% is likely to stay below average and help his overall hit numbers stay lower than they should. Sort of like Chuck James 2006.

But in AAA in the same year his HR/9 was very low. So, if Hill keeps his K/9 and BB/9 at his 2006 ML levels (which is pretty conservative given his track record) he will be able to overcome the FB rate. Because if he ends up striking out 9 or even 10 the numbers of balls in play will be limited. Because remember, while roughly 10.5% of all FBs are homers, the one's that aren't have a .167 batting average. So if his HR numbers can work their way down to his AAA level, or even just around 1 per 9, there is hardy anyone in the majors with more upside.

Whew. Detective

Roto Guru Joined: Feb 19, 2004 Posts: 651

dundeeslugger wrote:

Rich Hill should do well. I don't know what rotochamps has him ranked at but I wouldn't put too much into that. This site is free, it's not like they put too much time and effort into anything they do.

Hill is a big time sleeper who should do well especially with the fact that Baker is gone and the Cubs have some good hitters.

I am going to give you a pass for the asisine comments, since you have only been a member here for 4 days. That being said, the rc brothers work amazingly hard at both this site and those free projections. They are as knowledgable about baseball as anyone I know and the advice of them, other posters to this site and these free projections have helped me do better in my leagues and win more money. The effort that goes into these projections is astounding, starting in November, they probably spend more time on them than I do at my full time job and we are damned lucky to have these projections.

[Stepping down from the soapbox]

To the rc's, thank you for these projections, all the time and effort that goes into them. You make the baseball season more enjoyable and more painless for the rest of us.

Posted: Mon Mar 05, 2007 8:48 am

ok...heres a semi related question about hill

love the answers guys thnx...feelin better now

in another regular yahoo league
regular 5x5 stats heres my rotation....
hill was just dropped and I'm considering droppin snell for him

i have

peavy
sheets
cain
harden
John Patterson
Ian Snell

yes i know im playing russian roulette with all my pitchers lol
but the question is....
Rich Hill or snell????

Moderator Joined: Dec 11, 2003 Posts: 2165

Definitely Hill. I like Snell a lot for 2007 but Hill is more likely to be a good pitcher this year and has more upside.

Posted: Mon Mar 05, 2007 9:01 am

so...i hedge my bets with hill....
i just need the less risky of the 2
ok...hill it is!!
anyone else?

General Manager Joined: Jan 23, 2005 Posts: 158

Id go with hill over Snell just because of more upside, but he also has a better offense behind him too.

Posted: Mon Mar 05, 2007 9:33 am

oh no..dilemma

some idiot just dropped valverde

after seeing my pitching staff on the previous post of mine

I didnt mention I have 2 closers

Joe Nathan
Chad Cordero

now
the question is

do i drop snell for a 3rd closer being valverde??
or..go for Hill??

Posted: Mon Mar 05, 2007 9:44 am

What about dumping some of your hitters? Who do you have?

Posted: Mon Mar 05, 2007 9:51 am

C Johnny Estrada
(Mil - C) CUtilBN 125/414 43 11 71 0 .302
1B Ryan Howard
(Phi - 1B) 1BUtilBN 182/581 104 58 149 0 .313
2B Brandon Phillips
(Cin - 2B) 2BUtilBN 148/536 65 17 75 25 .276
3B Ryan Zimmerman
(Was - 3B) 3BUtilBN 176/614 84 20 110 11 .287
SS Freddy S�nchez
(Pit - 2B,3B,SS) 2B3BSSUtilBN 200/582 85 6 85 3 .344
OF Carl Crawford
(TB - OF) OFUtilBN 183/600 89 18 77 58 .305
OF Jason Bay
(Pit - OF) OFUtilBN 163/570 101 35 109 11 .286
OF Michael Cuddyer
(Min - 1B,OF) 1BOFUtilBN 158/557 102 24 109 6 .284
Util Jim Thome
(CWS - Util) UtilBN 141/490 108 42 109 0 .288
BN Jeff Francoeur
(Atl - OF) OFUtilBN 169/651 83 29 103 1 .260
BN Frank Thomas
(Tor - Util) UtilBN 126/466 77 39 114 0 .270
BN Jorge Cant�
(TB - 2B) 2BUtilBN 103/413 40 14 62 1 .249
BN Mark Teahen
(KC - 3B) 3BUtilBN 114/393 70 18 69 10 .290

ya I know its a deep bench and not so deep with pitching

but how do i drop any of these guys?
cantu is a great risk
as is teahen
what I am trying to do is move thome or thomas...2 utils just is no good...
but they were there so late I had no cchoice it seemed